Thursday Summit League Hoops Thread

[louiemdj]

There aren't any MVC games today, so I'm going to try and break down the 4 Summit League games this evening since I have some free time this afternoon. Keep in mind, I don't know a ton about the Summit League, so don't take this too serious.

Oakland -2 @ Southern Utah

I actually think the wrong team might be favored here. I expect Southern Utah to win this game at home. Both Oakland and Southern Utah have identical records in the Summit league this year at 4-4.

Oakland has not beat a team with a winning Summit record yet this year. The teams they have beat have a combined 7-25 in league play, and 3 of those 4 wins were at home. In their 4 losses in Summit League play, all teams were .500 or better in conference, and their best loss was by 9 points at home. 2 of these losses cam at home and 2 on the road. The margin of losses in the road losses were higher than the home losses.

Southern Utah is no powerhouse, but their resume is more impressive than Oakland's. Ironically enough, their 4 conference wins all came on the road to teams with a combined 8-22 record, but they have beat a team in conference with a .500 or better record at Western Illinois who beat Oakland by 10. Their 3 of their 4 losses came against the top teams in the Summit League and they played the top teams in the conference much closer than Oakland did.

My play on this game is Southern Utah +2.

IFPW @ Oral Roberts -17.5

Oral Roberts is by far the elite team in the Summit. They are 8-0 in conference, and the only close call was at Western Illinois in OT. They have handled everyone else they have played.

IFPW has struggled mightily on the road this year losing by an average of 25 points in their losses to SDST and NDSU. They also lost at home to UMKC by 15 to allow them to get their only conference victory so far this year.

I can't really warrant a play on this game, but I don't know how you can back IFPW on the road against the best team in the Summit. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if ORU wins by 20+, but who knows. You could probably flip a coin in this one.

Western Illinois -5 @ UMKC

UMKC is the worst team in the Summit play a decent Western Illinois team that took ORU to OT. Western Illinois has 2 conference road wins by 10 points against Oakland and IFPW. Those 2 teams are far superior to UMKC who can't really win at home or on the road. Of UMKC's 7 conference losses, they have only been beaten by less than 7 points one time. Western Illinois has shown they can win on the road against higher quality Summit opponents, and UMKC really hasn't shown much of anything. I would give the nod to WIU here, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won by DD's.

IUPUI -1.5 vs South Dakota

This game should be a real shit show. IUPUI is 2-6 in the Summit and SD is a smooth 1-7. IUPUI has 2 home wins against UMKC in OT and Western Illinois which is actually a quality win for them. Coming into this game, they have lost 4 straight conference games. 3 of the 4 losses came against teams that have a .500 or better conference record.

South Dakota, on the other hand, is winless @ home in conference play. Their only win came on the road at UMKC in a blowout. SD hasn't really even been competitive in any conference losses, except for one home game in which they lost to Southern Utah by 5 in OT.

It's pretty tough to pick a side in this one, it may very well be another coin flip game, but if I had a gun to my head, I would lean IUPUI -1.5 here. This is a good opportunity for them to get another conference win.

[jimmysingh9]

great read. I wish i knew a lick about Summit League but good write up.

Louis if you know alot about the Summit League, you should think about doing a preseason preview next for college hoops

[louiemdj]

(01-19-2012 01:17 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  great read. I wish i knew a lick about Summit League but good write up.

Louis if you know alot about the Summit League, you should think about doing a preseason preview next for college hoops

As I said in the original write-up, I wouldn't consider Summit League my area of expertise, I just had some free time so I did my best to break down today's games since there is no MVC action.

I wanted to do a MVC write up before conference play started, but I didn't have the time I needed.

If I have free time and there isn't any MVC games, I may try and do some breakdowns of other small conferences and see how it turns out.

[SkyBlues42]

Great write-ups, louie.

In that Oakland/Southern Utah game, though, do you think the wrong team is favored because of conference play alone?

Oakland's non-conference schedule was fairly difficult. Five games against Major-conference schools. Granted, they only won one of them -- against Tennessee at home. But still, they have experience against Michigan, Arkansas (not good), Alabama and Arizona. They've also beat Valpo on the road.

Their conference schedule hasn't been easy, either. All of Oakland's losses have come against teams positioned higher.

Southern Utah needed overtime to beat South Dakota and lost to Ft. Wayne by 21 points.

[louiemdj]

(01-19-2012 01:24 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Great write-ups, louie.

In that Oakland/Southern Utah game, though, do you think the wrong team is favored because of conference play alone?

Oakland's non-conference schedule was fairly difficult. Five games against Major-conference schools. Granted, they only won one of them -- against Tennessee at home. But still, they have experience against Michigan, Arkansas (not good), Alabama and Arizona. They've also beat Valpo on the road.

Their conference schedule hasn't been easy, either. All of Oakland's losses have come against teams positioned higher.

Southern Utah needed overtime to beat South Dakota and lost to Ft. Wayne by 21 points.

Even though they have a pretty tough non conference schedule and they did beat Tennessee, I still think they are overvalued. People still remember them from last year's NCAA Tourney (I actually had them going to the final game in one bracket ) when they ran up and down the court and scored a ton of points. They are still capable of doing that to some extent, and they can sneak up on some good teams out of conference that aren't as familiar. Oakland's conference schedule is a little tougher so far than SUU, but their wins are also less impressive overall too. I just think these teams are too even for one of them to be a road favorite. I could be completely wrong, but that's just my take.

[jimmysingh9]

(01-19-2012 01:21 PM)louiemdj Wrote:  

(01-19-2012 01:17 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  great read. I wish i knew a lick about Summit League but good write up.

Louis if you know alot about the Summit League, you should think about doing a preseason preview next for college hoops

As I said in the original write-up, I wouldn't consider Summit League my area of expertise, I just had some free time so I did my best to break down today's games since there is no MVC action.

I wanted to do a MVC write up before conference play started, but I didn't have the time I needed.

If I have free time and there isn't any MVC games, I may try and do some breakdowns of other small conferences and see how it turns out.

LOL sorry I went straight to the game reading and skipped the intro.