The Top 17 Most I.P.O.T.F.S.B.

[Jaybiz773]

(07-22-2012 04:02 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(07-22-2012 12:28 PM)Jaybiz773 Wrote:  Those that talk, don't know. Those that know, don't talk.

Are you saying this just for sports betting or as a life principle of yours? Because although I think I understand your point, I'm not sure I completely agree.

The point is in betting markets, those that have what I would call 'influential info' aren't talking about it. Those that are talking and giving betting advice on podcasts, articles, twitter, etc aren't the ones influencing the lines. Bottom line if you have an edge that influences the marketplace you generally don't share it.

(07-22-2012 05:47 PM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  I agree with you. The people at this forum are on the higher end of the gambling spectrum. The people who buy that magazine probably watch espn Sportscenter more and have seen Bell on their website. Doubt 5 percent ever heard of RAS. Bell is getting his name out there thru mainstream methods and that makes him influential with the novice bettor.

RAS tweets a play and the price moves....everytime. That's influence. Getting one's name out via the media is a great way to market something, or position oneself as an authority in the minds of those who don't know better, but it's not influential in terms of the actual betting markets.

[SkyBlues42]

(07-23-2012 12:23 AM)Jaybiz773 Wrote:  

(07-22-2012 04:02 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(07-22-2012 12:28 PM)Jaybiz773 Wrote:  Those that talk, don't know. Those that know, don't talk.

Are you saying this just for sports betting or as a life principle of yours? Because although I think I understand your point, I'm not sure I completely agree.

The point is in betting markets, those that have what I would call 'influential info' aren't talking about it. Those that are talking and giving betting advice on podcasts, articles, twitter, etc aren't the ones influencing the lines. Bottom line if you have an edge that influences the marketplace you generally don't share it.

I see your point, too. But like ChiefZilla, I don't completely agree with your answer. I think people that write articles and provide updates can--and have--influenced lines. Think about someone that reports an injury to (for example) Peyton Manning a day or two before the game. Whether or not a bettor placed a wager on it will have no impact on the initial line movement. The fact that Peyton is out will move the line by itself.

[Jaybiz773]

You think RJ and his team of -EV henchmen influence the line???


That's rich.

Not trying to take a stab at anyone who does hard work and tries to offer valuable information, but the bottom line is guys like Krackman, Haralabos, and Edward RAS (and other's who are max betting and influence the line the SECOND they bet it) are the kind of people who's opinions I value the MOST. They also won't tell you what they are betting until they get money down, and by that time the good number is gone.

The best bettors who win the most, aren't writing articles. They are too busy doing work and betting. Sharing sharp info with the public is akin to shooting themselves in the foot as it makes it harder to maintain an edge. The fact is sports betting markets are highly competitive. Edge players are simply not incentivised to share info.

If a guy writes that June Jones says Zach Line will get a steady diet of touches, its possible sharp bettors will form an opinion based on that raw data, but not sure I'd be crediting the writer for "influencing the line". I'm not talking about injury reports. I'm talking sharp ppl who move the price based on an opinion. To me that's 'influential'.

A CBB total moves 6-8 pts....good chance Edward is originating it.
NBA total moves 6 pts...good chance Haralabos is originating it.
NFL win total just went from 4.5 to 6......no surprise Krackman is on Millman talking about that bet.

You just don't see influential people tweeting out these kind of moves or putting it in a blog.

So Sky, tell me, what bloggers or writers you have seen influence the line, I'm seriously curious???

[LOLstradamus]

The primary driver of line movement is money. Books would never react to a blog post or article without any money down first.

[Weebay]

Jaybiz just killed it. Might have been the best post I have seen on this forum.

[ChicosBailBonds]

(07-23-2012 12:23 AM)Jaybiz773 Wrote:  

(07-22-2012 04:02 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(07-22-2012 12:28 PM)Jaybiz773 Wrote:  Those that talk, don't know. Those that know, don't talk.

Are you saying this just for sports betting or as a life principle of yours? Because although I think I understand your point, I'm not sure I completely agree.

The point is in betting markets, those that have what I would call 'influential info' aren't talking about it. Those that are talking and giving betting advice on podcasts, articles, twitter, etc aren't the ones influencing the lines. Bottom line if you have an edge that influences the marketplace you generally don't share it.

(07-22-2012 05:47 PM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  I agree with you. The people at this forum are on the higher end of the gambling spectrum. The people who buy that magazine probably watch espn Sportscenter more and have seen Bell on their website. Doubt 5 percent ever heard of RAS. Bell is getting his name out there thru mainstream methods and that makes him influential with the novice bettor.

RAS tweets a play and the price moves....everytime. That's influence. Getting one's name out via the media is a great way to market something, or position oneself as an authority in the minds of those who don't know better, but it's not influential in terms of the actual betting markets.

Think bigger picture. We all agree that RAS has far more influence with sharper gamblers. Why does RJ Bell have 19,000 followers while RAS has 6300? Ruth's Chris > McDonalds in quality but only a fool doesn't take notice of the volume of McDonalds.

[LOLstradamus]

I can't believe I read all 15 pages of this thread. That said, kind of fun looking behind the curtain, hah.

[SkyBlues42]

JayBiz might have killed it.. but unless I'm mistaken, the argument wasn't about who moves lines. It was about influential people in the industry. You can argue that it wasn't about moving lines at all, or else I'm positive RAS would have made that list.

As for money being the only factor that will move a line... I don't completely agree. It's a big part, and the main factor, but an injury to a star player/suspension etc. after the line is released will move the line regardless.

[Weebay]

If you aren't moving lines how are you influential?

[LOLstradamus]

(07-23-2012 06:16 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  As for money being the only factor that will move a line... I don't completely agree. It's a big part, and the main factor, but an injury to a star player/suspension etc. after the line is released will move the line regardless.

Yeah, that's why I was careful to say 'primary reason' for the reasons you've listed. Speculation is another potential driver (as with injuries/suspensions) to anticipate how the money will come in. Line analysis is one of my favorite things when it comes to sports betting (nerd alert).

[Wiseguy]

Agree with Sky.2 different subjects, moving lines and public influence are not the same.

[ChiefZilla]

(07-22-2012 05:47 PM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  I agree with you. The people at this forum are on the higher end of the gambling spectrum. The people who buy that magazine probably watch espn Sportscenter more and have seen Bell on their website. Doubt 5 percent ever heard of RAS. Bell is getting his name out there thru mainstream methods and that makes him influential with the novice bettor.

Yeah but I know plenty of "novice" bettors, and none of them have a clue who RJ Bell is. Or Pregame. Or Covers. Or BTB. Or really anything. They just log on to their account and bet.

[mount187]

The argument is now down to semantics, which is pointless.

Guys like RJ are influential in the same way Colin Cowherd is. Is Cowherd going to move a line in Vegas? Not a chance. Is he going to make people make uninformed betting decisions* with his "Blazing Five"? Yep. That makes him influential. RJ is only public radio and TV giving out information that people are using to make decisions. If you want to argue how good the information is, feel free, but you can't argue that he's having ZERO affect on people's decisions. Some people don't care who he is and think, "If ESPN has this guy on the air, he must know what he's talking about."

At the same time, is RAS influential? Absolutely; he moves lines without fail. He's having a definite, measurable impact on the market. The argument Wagerminds, and others, have made is that he's not a public figure on Twitter, which is true. He doesn't use his Twitter account as a marketing tool, or as a way to dispense his lines. If he did, he probably would've been at the top of the list.

*Uniformed is probably unfair. He has a lot of data at his disposal, but he's not looking at the numbers the same way professional bettors do.

[Jaybiz773]

I think the word you are looking is for is "popular". Guys like Cowherd have more followers and are probably more popular with the average betting square, but lack any real influence on the market.

I suppose its a matter of what matters to you. For me, it's much more important to know who is more influential on the ACTUAL betting markets and helps me turn a better ROI, not so much who talks louder, more often, or who has more followers.

[LineProjector]

(07-16-2012 11:11 AM)RJ_Bell Wrote:  As I said, within one month, every pick from every Pro will be available in archive.

It's August 1. Can someone please point me to the archive?

[SkyBlues42]

well.. he technically posted that on July 16th. So there's still time left. Unless he stated somewhere that Aug 1 was the deadline.

[Beyond the Bets]

I wonder if a FOIA request will be necessary to get the picks?

[Edward-RAS]

(07-25-2012 10:17 PM)Jaybiz773 Wrote:  I think the word you are looking is for is "popular". Guys like Cowherd have more followers and are probably more popular with the average betting square, but lack any real influence on the market.

I like that description. Even though there is some crossover between popular and influential, popular better suits most people on the list.