The sharps' calculated play on Nevada-Texas Tech

[ChiefZilla]

I know there was a lot of talk on this board last week about the Nevada-Texas Tech line movement (whether it was sharp or public) and I found this article that explained the movement.

Quote:The brilliance of their Thursday attack was how they helped set the market number by seeding money on the other side in a few of those games with early wagering at the Wynn Resort and similar activity off-shore.

The Wynn opened Texas Tech as a 15 ½-point favorite against Nevada last Sunday night. After a few low limit wagers on Tech moved the spread up the ladder, the number had quickly settled at -20. That was the market price most sports books opened with on Monday morning.

On Thursday morning the number that had been driven to as high as -21 at the South Point and -20 ½ at the Las Vegas Hilton and Wynn with Tech money. The public loved Texas Tech and the risk on the game was mounting on that side.

Then the onslaught came as their plan of attack came to fruition at every sports book in the city at almost the same time with Nevada money.

Pretty interesting stuff, if you ask me. I was always under the impression that sharp movement took place on Sunday and Monday, but this sounds like it was calculated far in advance.

Definitely something to keep in mind as we move forward in the college football season.

[Weebay]

That is how Billy Walters does business.

[mount187]

In one @chadmillman's latest podcasts, @teddy_covers was making the argument that sports books have started ignoring public money, because they're so concerned with what the "sharp" money is doing. The other person on the broadcast completely disagreed. This post reminded me of it, and I was just curious how you guys look at line movement. Is early line movement a better indicator than mid-week/late line movement? Are there certain books that take more "sharp" money than other books? Are there other things to consider?

[Weebay]

Mount,

Public money does not move lines, sharp money does. Perfect example of this was LSU vs WVU, LSU was a huge public play with lots of money on it. If square money moves lines then that game should of closed 6.5 or even 7. It closed at 5.5

[Beyond the Bets]

The public can move lines in some situations, certainly, but books really like to hold their ground on key numbers. There have been numerous examples of this, especially in the NFL, where public money should have driven the Ravens-Titans line a few weeks back to Ravens -44.5 (lol).

[mount187]

OK, but are there any particular line movements that you look for to help you when you're thinking of making a play on a game? If a line has moved opposite of your numbers, do you avoid it? If it moves in your favor, but is still less than what you have the spread at, will you take the game at the worse number anyways? Do you rethink games you've passed on previously if the line starts moving one way or the other?

[Beyond the Bets]

Personally, I always look at the market. I consider the line movements and try to determine why they are occurring, what the wiseguys might see (particularly if it's the opposite side), etc. But ultimately, I go with my own gut, as I spend a considerable amount of time handicapping college football.

But yeah, definitely. You have to be mindful of it.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-27-2011 11:02 AM)mount187 Wrote:  Is early line movement a better indicator than mid-week/late line movement?

Early and late line movement can be from the same thing or from other things. There's a lot of things to consider with late line movement. Could be a key injury that these guys know from sources that the public doesn't know yet. Could be that a syndicate is starting to make its plays and moving the line around. Could be that a tout released his plays and has lots of clients.

Early line movement is damn near always sharp line movement. Really, the reasons for this are to ensure value on a number because the public will be on the same side and force a worse number or because a number is horribly off and can be picked off immediately.

In terms of better indicators, early line movement will almost always be the sharp side. But, keep in mind that without a lot of volume on the line, one big bet can swing the number. So, one big sharp might like a team but two or three other sharps like the other side and just put down smaller wagers. This is generally what happens when you see a line open at, say, -3 and immediately go to -2 before jumping to -3.5 or -4.

Late line movement can be a combination of sharps and public. Thursdays tend to be called "moving day" in the industry. That's when most services will release their plays for the weekend.

Quote:Are there certain books that take more "sharp" money than other books? Are there other things to consider?

Ones with higher limits will take more sharp money. I don't know the Vegas books well enough to be specific about it, but sharp money will be distributed somewhat evenly for the most part because they'll all be talking to each other when they catch a line at Stations that is half a point better than at the Hilton.

Online, yes, there are sharper books. In terms of online, Pinnacle and Legends are sharper than Bodog or 5Dimes. Bodog has fairly low limits. I've heard Bodog called an "ATM" for sharp bettors because they'll deposit $500, cash $2000 and do that frequently over the course of a month.


There's so much to consider that you're going to bury yourself with it. You're already finding lines that catch your eye. That's good. Study what happens to the line. Covers is great because on the Live Odds page, there's a line history link, so you can see the line movement. If you see a line moving on Middle Tennessee State, you can reasonably assume that it's almost never public money. The public doesn't know shit about the Sun Belt.

You already know more than you think you do. It becomes instinctive if you seriously study this craft.

And always remember, no matter how good you are, you're going to lose 40-45% of the time at minimum, so don't get discouraged.

[mount187]

(09-27-2011 01:24 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  And always remember, no matter how good you are, you're going to lose 40-45% of the time at minimum, so don't get discouraged.

I think that's the hardest part to get used to. It's difficult for me, because I don't bet with much money compared to what I make from work, so seeing a return of $50-$75 over the course of the month (considering how much time it takes up) is kind of frustrating. Hopefully sooner rather than later I'll get a better feel for the craft and be able to find sports/plays that I can take advantage of and be willing to put more at risk. For now though, I need to work on getting my win rate into the mid-50's.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-27-2011 01:30 PM)mount187 Wrote:  I think that's the hardest part to get used to. It's difficult for me, because I don't bet with much money compared to what I make from work, so seeing a return of $50-$75 over the course of the month (considering how much time it takes up) is kind of frustrating.

You work. You have a job. You have an occupation. You have a career. Whatever you want to call it, it pays the bills, keeps a roof over your head, feeds your kids (if you have any), etc.

Sports betting is not your job. It shouldn't feel like a job. I liken it to going to the movies. It adds entertainment value for a nominal fee to a game I otherwise probably wouldn't watch. It gives me a chance to have a somewhat inexpensive hobby that I enjoy. Plus, it's a challenge. Since I stopped playing hockey competitively, I miss that feeling and motivation of winning.

An incredibly small percentage of people who handicap do it for a living. Have fun with it. It's not a job.

Quote:Hopefully sooner rather than later I'll get a better feel for the craft and be able to find sports/plays that I can take advantage of and be willing to put more at risk. For now though, I need to work on getting my win rate into the mid-50's.

You will, but, even if you go 55-45 at $100 per game, you win $900. It might make a difference in helping you pay a couple bills, but, if you put 100 hours into your 100 games, you're making $9/hr.

Get it out of your head that you're going to be making a living or make supplemental income out of this for the foreseeable future. It's a fun, challenging, thought-provoking hobby that keeps you sharp. It's not some mindless bullshit like playing Madden for PS3 for five hours a day.

Take it for what it is.

[mount187]

(09-27-2011 01:40 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(09-27-2011 01:30 PM)mount187 Wrote:  I think that's the hardest part to get used to. It's difficult for me, because I don't bet with much money compared to what I make from work, so seeing a return of $50-$75 over the course of the month (considering how much time it takes up) is kind of frustrating.

You work. You have a job. You have an occupation. You have a career. Whatever you want to call it, it pays the bills, keeps a roof over your head, feeds your kids (if you have any), etc.

Sports betting is not your job. It shouldn't feel like a job. I liken it to going to the movies. It adds entertainment value for a nominal fee to a game I otherwise probably wouldn't watch. It gives me a chance to have a somewhat inexpensive hobby that I enjoy. Plus, it's a challenge. Since I stopped playing hockey competitively, I miss that feeling and motivation of winning.

An incredibly small percentage of people who handicap do it for a living. Have fun with it. It's not a job.

Quote:Hopefully sooner rather than later I'll get a better feel for the craft and be able to find sports/plays that I can take advantage of and be willing to put more at risk. For now though, I need to work on getting my win rate into the mid-50's.

You will, but, even if you go 55-45 at $100 per game, you win $900. It might make a difference in helping you pay a couple bills, but, if you put 100 hours into your 100 games, you're making $9/hr.

Get it out of your head that you're going to be making a living or make supplemental income out of this for the foreseeable future. It's a fun, challenging, thought-provoking hobby that keeps you sharp. It's not some mindless bullshit like playing Madden for PS3 for five hours a day.

Take it for what it is.

I've got to keep my ego out of it and realize that I'm just learning what I'm doing. I'm HIGHLY competitive and hate losing at anything. I also have to believe the the feelings associated with winning and losing on a game-to-game basis will die down eventually, but right now every turnover, missed 3rd down conversion, garbage TD spread killer, etc. is like, "GIVE ME A BREAK!" Hopefully that's just part of being a rookie. :)