The @MLBPriceMachine - 2013 Edition

[mount187]

(04-17-2012 01:10 PM)ScottKimberly Wrote:  Just a coincidence it's all the away teams? Does your formula result in a lot of away team choices?

My guess is that books pad their lines for the public betting favorites like, NYY, BOS, ATL, etc. at home. They know the public will be all over these teams, so they have to factor in a little more juice. This doesn't mean we think all the road teams will win, we just think there is enough value in these particular road dogs to make them worth playing over a large sample size. It looks funny, but we continue to be on the good side of the line movement in a large majority of our plays. If that starts changing, we'll have to re-think our weights on home-field advantage; right now we feel like we're pretty well dialed in though.

[mount187]

I sent this in a tweet from @MLBPriceMachine, but on 4/16 we had the most traffic we've had at our site by about triple. Naturally, the worst line we took (NYM moved from -115 to +102) lost, and we got spanked on the first four plays of the night; luckily we cashed on CLE and hit a +180 on OAK. Ugly.

HOU +195 L -1.00
NYM -115 L -1.15
KC +110 L -1.00
SD +105 L -1.00
OAK +180 W +1.80
CLE : -115 W +1.00

2-4 (-1.35)

33-39 (-0.85)

[Edit] Updating record from the beginning.

[mount187]

All of the plays and records should be updated starting at the game on 4/4. I think technically, we released a play for SEA vs OAK in Japan (that we won), but we didn't have the site going yet, so we aren't tracking that in our records. If you guys see any discrepancies, please let us know.

[Edit]

As a quick aside, we've made 72 plays, and have had the lines move in our favor by an average of $.11 a play ($7.93 total). If you were playing with an $.11 advantage ATS in football, you'd be playing every play at better than +100 odds. That's a pretty significant advantage. The line movement (for a bettor wagering "To Risk" $100 on dogs / "To Win" $100 on favorites) would have saved the bettor $793 already this season. It's not really a bragging point to say, "It could be worse, you could be down $878 on our plays!", but the fact is, you could be down $878 on our plays if you had taken them all at the line close. That should count for something, right?

---

One more thing, if you guys have ideas (besides, "Win more games.") please let us know. We're always on the lookout for ways to add more content. I'm hoping to get some sort of metrics going to help us see how we're fairing with favorites / dogs, road teams / home teams, etc. My guess is that the first metric is going to say, "Please stop playing the Padres." Visit the site here.

[mount187]

Plays for 04-19-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

MIA : -116.45 / CHC : +128.09 (+160) / MIA : -104.80
CHW : -112.96 / BAL : +124.26 (+135) / CHW : -101.66
NYY : -154.76 / MIN : +170.23 (+215) / NYY : -139.28
TB : -101.05 / TB : +109.05 (+110) / TOR : +111.16
ATL : -112.45 / ATL : -101.21 (+115) / ARI : +123.70
LAA : -156.30 / OAK : +171.93 (+185) / LAA : -140.67

[mount187]

NYM +130 L -1.00
PIT +165 W +1.65
MIN +230 W +2.30
TEX +120 W +1.20
BAL +140 L -1.00
SDG +130 L -1.00
OAK +155 W +1.55
CLE -105 L -1.05
KC +125 L -1.00

4-5 (+1.65)

37-44 (+0.80)

[mount187]

Apparently I missed KC (who lost) for the 4/18 plays. I have updated the numbers accordingly.

[mount187]

Plays for 04-20-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

MIL : -112.29 / COL : +123.52 (+125) / MIL : -101.06
ATL : -123.75 / ATL : -111.37 (+100) / ARI : +136.12
PHI : -106.94 / PHI : +103.75 / SD : +117.64 (+125)
NYY : -107.60 / NYY : +103.16 (+105) / BOS : +118.36
TEX : -134.36 / TEX : -120.93 (-120) / DET : +147.80
TB : -115.13 / MIN : +126.64 (+155) / TB : -103.62
CLE : -125.10 / CLE : -112.59 (-110) / OAK : +137.61
LAA : -116.20 / BAL : +127.82 (+140) / LAA : -104.58
CHW : -125.02 / CHW : -112.52 (+100) / SEA : +137.52

[mount187]

CHC +160 L -1.00
BAL +135 W +1.35
MIN +215 L -1.00
TB +110 W +1.10
ATL +115 W +1.15
OAK +190 W +1.90

4-2 (+3.50)

41-46 (+4.30)

[mount187]

Plays for 04-21-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

WAS : -142.23 / MIA +156.45 (+164) / WAS : -128.00
NYM : -123.47 / SF : +135.81 / NYM -111.12 (-105)
LAD : -228.04 / LAD -205.23 (-190) / HOU : +250.84
MIL : -103.40 / COL +113.74 (+120) / MIL : +106.94
DET : -110.41 / TEX +121.45 (+140) / DET : +100.63
OAK : -142.32 / CLE : +156.56 / OAK -128.09 (-125)

No SD, PIT, BAL, or MIN; and we played two home teams; and we played three favorites. Times, they are a changin'?!

[ScottKimberly]

Hey Mount, an idea on increasing site traffic. Post your daily plays on your site and link to it from here. I look at these every day (and they help me wagering--- thanks for that) and I'm sure others do too. Linking them from here could add a lot of hits to the site.

Is that possible, or is this something you want to keep segregated?

Just a thought.

[mount187]

(04-20-2012 09:25 PM)ScottKimberly Wrote:  Hey Mount, an idea on increasing site traffic. Post your daily plays on your site and link to it from here. I look at these every day (and they help me wagering--- thanks for that) and I'm sure others do too. Linking them from here could add a lot of hits to the site.

Is that possible, or is this something you want to keep segregated?

Just a thought.

It's a delicate balance of wanting to drive site traffic, and also being helpful to people. Our original intention was to just do the site for ourselves, so money was never the driving factor. Then we decided to open it up to the public, with some slight ulterior motives (get better feedback, put our work handicapping/web development on public display, etc.), but also as a way to help people with their handicapping. In keeping with the theme of being helpful, I personally think having this thread updated is helpful to the forum members, so for that reason I'll probably keep doing it. Things do change though, so if the site ever goes beyond what we have planned for it, outside factors could force us to drive traffic there (ex: sponsors).

While we'd prefer people to get their plays from the site, we also appreciate having a good working relationship with BTB, so it's not a bad thing for people to be supporting the work he's doing here as well. As you can see, he's letting us tout our site here, he's RT'd some of our tweets to drive Twitter traffic our way, etc. He's definitely done more for us than we have for him at this point.

Your suggestion is appreciated though, so don't think I'm dismissing it. Keep the ideas coming!

[ScottKimberly]

I totally understand.

Thanks a lot for the work. It's given me a new way to look at plays. Hell, between help from your site and DOP (he has been on FIRE recently), I am 8-3, +7.09 over the past four days. Mmmmmm, tasty.

[lindetrain]

Plays for 04-22-2012, 10% edge (True Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

STL -112.98 / STL -101.69 / PIT +124.28 (+135)
TB -131.35 / MIN +144.48 (+159) / TB -118.21
LAD -105.62 / LAD +104.94 / HOU +116.18 (+130)
LAA -107.94 / BAL +118.73 (+160) / LAA +102.86
NYY -103.74 / NYY +106.64 / BOS +114.11 (+125)

[lindetrain]

4/20 results:

COL +125 W +1.25
ATL +100 W +1.00
SD +125 L -1.00
NYY +105 W +1.05
TEX -120 W +1.00 (played 4/21)
MIN +155 W +1.55
CLE -110 W +1.00
BAL +140 L -1.00
CHW +100 W +1.00

7-2 (+5.85)

4/21 results:

MIA +164 L -1.00
NYM -105 W +1.00
LAD -190 W +1.00
TEX +140 L -1.00
OAK -125 L -1.25

*With pitching change, COL no longer a play

2-3 (-1.25)

Overall:

50-51 (+8.90)

[maidenguy]

Mount, are your bets only against BOnline openers or if later in the day, the line moves and hits your target number, I assume they would become plays, is that correct. I noticed three games for tommorrow that wouldn't be plays based on the openers but became plays later(Philly,Oakland and Atlanta)

[lindetrain]

(04-22-2012 05:43 PM)maidenguy Wrote:  Mount, are your bets only against BOnline openers or if later in the day, the line moves and hits your target number, I assume they would become plays, is that correct. I noticed three games for tommorrow that wouldn't be plays based on the openers but became plays later(Philly,Oakland and Atlanta)

For simplicity's sake, we have just been using the openers, as we don't really have the manpower to sit around and track when another game becomes a play. Of course, if you see a side that comes into range with a line move, you can play it - but we can't really promise that you're gonna get the best number over time with those, as they could keep steaming in the other direction.

[maidenguy]

Lindetrain,excellant reply. Thanks

[maidenguy]

One more question. I know you are looking for a 10% difference. If you list a game at a play at -109.10 and the line is a close -110 would you still consider playing it as in the case of St.Louis on Monday. Just wondering your thoughts if your numbers and the openers are very,very close but not quite a play.

[lindetrain]

(04-22-2012 07:09 PM)maidenguy Wrote:  One more question. I know you are looking for a 10% difference. If you list a game at a play at -109.10 and the line is a close -110 would you still consider playing it as in the case of St.Louis on Monday. Just wondering your thoughts if your numbers and the openers are very,very close but not quite a play.

I'd just use your best judgment. It's not a play based on our numbers, but if you like it, take a stab at it. For ones on the fringe, I usually just go with my gut.

[lindetrain]

4/22 results:

BAL +160 W +1.60
PIT +135 L -1.00
HOU +130 W +1.30
MIN +159 L -1.00

2-2 (+0.90)
52-53 (+9.80)