The @MLBPriceMachine - 2013 Edition

[ScottKimberly]

And yes, I have your site in my bookmarks and am contributing site traffic quite often.

[mount187]

(04-15-2012 07:41 PM)ScottKimberly Wrote:  No that's perfect. I am relatively new to the nuts and bolts of line movement, so it seems foreign at first. I am interested in learning more though. Thanks a lot.

For every question you have, there are probably a dozen other people wondering the same thing that don't want to feel like a noob by asking. lindetrain and myself will answer any questions we can related to the site, and I'm sure others will jump in to help with any sports betting questions you may have. If nothing else, we can start a new thread and get a discussion going there. Thanks for your support!

[mount187]

SD +200 L -1.00
BAL +155 L -1.00
MIA -190 W +1.00
NYM +155 L -1.00
CLE +105 W +1.05

2-3 (-0.95)

27-31 (+0.45)

[Edit] Updating record from the beginning.

---

Plays for 04-16-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

COL : -122.45 / SD : +134.69 (+135) / COL : -110.20
BOS : -133.97 / TB : +147.37 / BOS : -120.57 (+100)
WAS : -350.47 / HOU : +385.52 / WAS : -315.42 (-280)
ATL : -180.09 / NYM : +198.10 / ATL : -162.08 (-155)
CHW : -108.05 / BAL : +118.86 (+125) / CHW : +102.75
ARI : -107.02 / PIT : +117.72 (+140) / ARI : +103.68
LAA : -141.72 / OAK : +155.89 (+195) / LAA : -127.55
PHI : -136.11 / PHI : -122.50 (-105) / SF : +149.73

---

Remember, don't just blindly bet these games because you see them posted. These plays were available at the opening bell, and some of them don't have the value any more. If the number your book is offering right now isn't as good or better than what's in parenthesis, skip the game (if this is your sole source of MLB info). There are 2,430 games in the MLB season, you can afford to miss a few.

:)

[ScottKimberly]

Boy, that Red Sox line jumped QUICK (or just opened differently at 5Dimes). Would have loved to get money at +100. The reduced line at 5Dimes is at -120 now.

[mount187]

(04-15-2012 10:17 PM)ScottKimberly Wrote:  Boy, that Red Sox line jumped QUICK (or just opened differently at 5Dimes). Would have loved to get money at +100. The reduced line at 5Dimes is at -120 now.

5Dimes opens their lines 12 hrs after BOL, and adjusts them according to what the market has done up to that point. That's why we switched from 5Dimes to BOL for baseball; BOL's lines are just too soft to pass up.

[MrLomez]

Just saw the number you put up for the Nats/Astros game. I had an insanely high number for that game, too. The biggest discrepancy between any two teams I've seen all year, by A LOT. (I have the Nats at -290, but my model has a built-in function that pulls everything back to the middle.)

In general, how do you guys handle extreme favorites like this? Betting wise, I mean?

I'm tempted to bet half my bank-roll on this game.

[ScottKimberly]

(04-16-2012 01:59 AM)MrLomez Wrote:  In general, how do you guys handle extreme favorites like this? Betting wise, I mean?

I am also interested in this. Is there a maximum favorite that you play? Meaning, if a game is -300, is it even worth betting, knowing that a fluke will cripple your bankroll?

[lindetrain]

(04-16-2012 01:59 AM)MrLomez Wrote:  Just saw the number you put up for the Nats/Astros game. I had an insanely high number for that game, too. The biggest discrepancy between any two teams I've seen all year, by A LOT. (I have the Nats at -290, but my model has a built-in function that pulls everything back to the middle.)

In general, how do you guys handle extreme favorites like this? Betting wise, I mean?

I'm tempted to bet half my bank-roll on this game.

I personally bet the same on every value side, regardless of discrepancy. Mount, on the other hand, is implementing a system where he bets different amounts based on the size of the variance. All a matter of preference.

Keep in mind, though, a 40 cent difference with a line of -250 isn't nearly as significant as a 40 cent difference with a line half its size...

[lindetrain]

(04-16-2012 02:10 AM)ScottKimberly Wrote:  

(04-16-2012 01:59 AM)MrLomez Wrote:  In general, how do you guys handle extreme favorites like this? Betting wise, I mean?

I am also interested in this. Is there a maximum favorite that you play? Meaning, if a game is -300, is it even worth betting, knowing that a fluke will cripple your bankroll?

Nope. Even if there's a game where a team is -400, if our model tells us it should be -600, we play it. Sure, there might be a fluke and we lose; but our numbers tell us that if you bet that side at that number, you'll come out ahead long-term.

[mount187]

(04-16-2012 02:10 AM)ScottKimberly Wrote:  

(04-16-2012 01:59 AM)MrLomez Wrote:  In general, how do you guys handle extreme favorites like this? Betting wise, I mean?

I am also interested in this. Is there a maximum favorite that you play? Meaning, if a game is -300, is it even worth betting, knowing that a fluke will cripple your bankroll?

I would never recommend betting any dollar amount that is going to "cripple your bankroll." You should always play within the means of what makes you comfortable. If having money on a -300 makes you worried, or hesitant, then it's probably not a game you should have action on. Just because someone else says it's a good bet doesn't mean that you should make it one of your bets. In the end, it's your money, and if you're going to have a lot of regrets if it loses, then it's best just to find another play that you're more comfortable with.

When we post a line like -350, all we're saying is our numbers suggest that team will win 77.78% of the time. That means we assume that if we make the bet 10 times, we're going to lose 2-3 of those bets, but we're going to win enough time to still make money. There is no such thing as a "lock", and big m/l favorites in baseball are no different. If you aren't OK with your bet being one of the 2-3 losing bets, then it's OK to sit out.

[mount187]

Plays for 04-17-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

WAS : -156.05 / HOU : +171.65 (+195) / WAS : -140.44
NYM : -137.51 / NYM : -123.76 (-115) / ATL : +151.27
KC : -105.73 / DET : +116.31 / KC : +104.84 (+110)
SD : -110.85 / SD : +100.23 (+105) / COL : +121.94
LAA : -143.82 / OAK : +158.20 (+180) / LAA : -129.44
CLE : -152.76 / CLE : -137.48 (-115) / SEA : +168.03

[ChiefZilla]

(04-16-2012 08:44 AM)mount187 Wrote:  I would never recommend betting any dollar amount that is going to "cripple your bankroll." You should always play within the means of what makes you comfortable.

^^^^^ This. ^^^^^

No offense, but I'd never bet half my bankroll on an MLB fave. Or an MLB game, period. Any team can win any game. Even the biggest mismatches.

[ScottKimberly]

I was speaking figuratively. I usually bet nominal amounts in comparison to my bankroll. The gist of what I was asking is at what point does the risk outweigh the reward. The feel I get is that it all depends on the bettor.

[mount187]

(04-16-2012 01:19 PM)ScottKimberly Wrote:  I was speaking figuratively. I usually bet nominal amounts in comparison to my bankroll. The gist of what I was asking is at what point does the risk outweigh the reward. The feel I get is that it all depends on the bettor.

The lines we play are based on large number theory in the sense that we'll probably identify 700-750 games over the rest of the season. Along the way we'll lose some -225's, but we'll also win enough of them to cover the losses. In the same sense, we may take SD +210 (so tired of seeing SD ...), and lose two of those bets, but the third one pays off higher than 2:1, so you have a net gain. If you don't adjust your bet weights to allow yourself time to bet all three games, then you're missing the bounce back. In the same sense, if you hit a few +180's early in the process, and decide to adjust your bets to account for your new-found profits, when the other side of the -180's comes calling you're going to get burned. MLB has an extremely long season, and your goal should be to have a steadily rising profit, not exponential growth.

[ChiefZilla]

(04-16-2012 01:28 PM)mount187 Wrote:  (so tired of seeing SD ...)

Them and Pittsburgh ...

[mount187]

Of course the one day I have time to post lines on here early I grab two horrible lines for the 4/17 games (NYM and SD). At least CLE and HOU moved in my favor.

[mount187]

SD +135 W +1.35
PHI -105 W +1.00
PIT +140 L -1.00
WAS -280 W +1.00
BOS +100 L -1.00
ATL -155 L -1.55
OAK +200 L -1.00
BAL +125 W +1.25


4-4 (+0.05)

31-35 (+0.50)

[Edit] Updating record from the beginning.

[mount187]

There seems to be some discrepancy between the games I find, and the games lindetrain updates on the site. I'm going to go with my inability to properly read the lines at 2AM when I normally post the plays. I'll try to go back through and update the missing information in this thread when I get a chance. I don't want people thinking we're purposely misrepresenting our information here.

[mount187]

Plays for 04-18-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

NYM : -111.81 / NYM : -100.63 (+130) / ATL : +122.99
ARI : -146.49 / PIT : +161.14 (+165) / ARI : -131.84
NYY : -195.55 / MIN : +215.10 (+230) / NYY : -175.99
BOS : -102.78 / TEX : +113.05 (+120) / BOS : +107.50
CHW : -116.27 / BAL : +127.90 (+140) / CHW : -104.64
COL : -109.67 / SDG : +120.64 (+130) / COL : +101.30
LAA : -107.91 / OAK : +118.70 (+155) / LAA : +102.88
CLE : -116.74 / CLE : -105.07 (-105) / SEA : +128.41
DET : -110.94 / DET : +100.16 / KC : +122.03 (+125)

Let's go road dogs?

[ScottKimberly]

(04-17-2012 01:06 PM)mount187 Wrote:  Plays for 04-18-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

NYM : -111.81 / NYM : -100.63 (+130) / ATL : +122.99
ARI : -146.49 / PIT : +161.14 (+165) / ARI : -131.84
NYY : -195.55 / MIN : +215.10 (+220) / NYY : -175.99
BOS : -102.78 / TEX : +113.05 (+120) / BOS : +107.50
CHW : -116.27 / BAL : +127.90 (+140) / CHW : -104.64
COL : -109.67 / SDG : +120.64 (+130) / COL : +101.30
LAA : -107.91 / OAK : +118.70 (+155) / LAA : +102.88
CLE : -116.74 / CLE : -105.07 (-105) / SEA : +128.41

Let's go road dogs?

Just a coincidence it's all the away teams? Does your formula result in a lot of away team choices?