The @MLBPriceMachine - 2013 Edition

[mount187]

Check Post #39 for an explanation of how we plan on using the process going forward. If it doesn't make sense, or I miscalculated anything, let me know.

*Putting this down on paper gave me an idea for an enhancement to the site which will be very useful (and hopefully I get to tonight). I'll start displaying the 10% value line on the site, so people can see the target numbers they should be after. I'll display the 10% on the schedule page, and put a chart of 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, etc. on the click-through page.

[mount187]

MIL +100 W +1.00
OAK -120 W +1.00
SD -115 W +1.00
MIA +145 L -1.00
PIT +145 L -1.00
TOR +120 W +1.20

4-2 (+2.20)

14-19 (-4.95)

[Edit] Updating record from the beginning.

I'll post tomorrow's lines tomorrow; I'd love to do it tonight, but I wrote a huge stat update tool that I'm testing, and I'm still trying to put out the +10% lines in the UI for tomorrow.

[mount187]

I lied, here were tomorrow's plays at BOL open:

Plays for 04-12-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

SFG : -137.73 / SFG : -123.96 (-125) / COL : +151.51
LAA : -119.14 / LAA : -107.22 / MIN : +131.05 (+145)
MIA : -135.52 / MIA : -121.96 (+105) / PHI : +149.07
TEX : -200.02 / SEA : +220.03 (+220) / TEX : -180.02

[Beyond the Bets]

For those that missed it, here's the link to the Machine.

[Sportcap]

New to the forum but been browsing this thread - great stuff here!

Nice hit on the twinkies today - look forward to following the rest of the season!

[VincentValour]

Like the target lines addition. Good work boys!

[DOP]

I can say that I definitely love what the machine is thinking about the ChiSox tomorrow!

[mount187]

SFG -125 W +1.00
MIN +145 W +1.45
MIA +105 L -1.00
SEA +230 L -1.00

2-2 (+0.45)

16-21 (-4.50)

[Edit] Updating record from the beginning.

---

We did a stat update to try to start to incorporate some of the season stats in with our projected stats. Most of the value in these plays is now lost, but our lines become available on the site in the afternoon, so you should be able to get them close to open if you want them. I'm just putting these here for tracking purposes.

Plays for 04-13-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

SF : -145.76 / PIT : +160.34 (+170) / SF : -131.18
WAS : -168.33 / CIN : +185.16 / WAS : -151.50 (-140)
STL : -149.48 / CHC : +164.43 (+185) / STL : -134.53
NYY : -143.80 / LAA : +158.19 / NYY : -129.42 (-125)
TOR : -155.46 / BAL : +171.01 (+185) / TOR : -139.91
COL : -102.78 / ARI : +113.06 (+120) / COL : +107.50
PHI : -144.14 / NYM : +158.55 (+170) / PHI : -129.73
SD : -110.23 / SD : +100.80 (+120) / LAD : +121.25
CLE : -106.25 / CLE : +104.37 (+120) / KC : +116.88
TB : -103.39 / TB : +106.95 (+115) / BOS : +113.73

*At the time I'm posting this, every line has moved in our favor. May be some false moves in there, but good start.

[lindetrain]

Just went and got the tracking page completely updated. 37 plays that fit our criteria so far (if we had been using HFA, haha) - a total of 445 cents in our favor from BOL open to close. That's 4.45u you would have that someone betting at close wouldn't, in only nine days.

The sides themselves are 16-21, -4.5u. Over .500 since the absolutely brutal two-day stretch to start.

[mount187]

If you want a chance at getting the numbers as soon as we have them available, we send out a tweet from @MLBPriceMachine as soon as we have them set. If you have your handicapping done ahead of time, you can compare what you have with what we have, and hit BetOnline's openers for maximum value. New lines are ready here.

[mount187]

PIT +170 L -1.00
WAS -150 W +1.00
CHC +190 W +1.90
NYY -125 W +1.00
BAL +190 W +1.90
ARI +120 L -1.00
NYM +170 W +1.70
SD +120 L -1.00
CLE +120 W +1.20
TB +115 L -1.00

6-4 (+4.70)

22-25 (+0.20)

[Edit] Updating record from the beginning.

---

Plays for 04-14-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

TB : -110.86 / TB : +100.22 (+135) / BOS : +121.95
PHI : -114.49 / NYM : +125.94 (+145) / PHI : -103.04
OAK : -141.74 / OAK : -127.57 (+110) / SEA : +155.91
TOR : -126.53 / BAL : +139.19 (+145) / TOR : -113.88
SF : -132.44 / PIT : +145.68 (+150) / SF : -119.19
KC : -116.70 / CLE : +128.37 (+130) / KC : -105.03

[SkyBlues42]

(04-13-2012 02:32 AM)lindetrain Wrote:  Just went and got the tracking page completely updated. 37 plays that fit our criteria so far (if we had been using HFA, haha) - a total of 445 cents in our favor from BOL open to close. That's 4.45u you would have that someone betting at close wouldn't, in only nine days.

The sides themselves are 16-21, -4.5u. Over .500 since the absolutely brutal two-day stretch to start.

That's the most interesting aspect of this, imo. (Well, that and winning, of course).

Good work, guys.

[ChiefZilla]

(04-14-2012 09:19 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  That's the most interesting aspect of this, imo. (Well, that and winning, of course).

Good work, guys.

Ditto on this. Win or lose, it's essentially like you're giving yourself four free bets. That's the beauty of beating the closing number.

[mount187]

TB +135 L -1.00
NYM +145 W +1.45
OAK +110 L -1.00
BAL +145 W +1.45
PIT +150 L -1.00
CLE +130 W +1.30

3-3 (+1.20)

25-28 (+1.40)

[Edit] Updating record from the beginning.

---

Plays for 04-15-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

LAD : -186.96 / SD : +205.66 (+210) / LAD : -168.27
TOR : -132.27 / BAL : +145.50 (+155) / TOR : -119.05
MIA : -226.20 / HOU : +248.82 / MIA : -203.58 (-190)
PHI : -140.68 / NYM : +154.75 (+155) / PHI : -126.61
CLE : -135.29 / CLE : -121.76 (+105) / KC : +148.81

[mount187]

Everyone keeps asking, so I implemented "unit" tracking against my will. You can find it at the bottom of the page here.

Since I took the time to do it, I'm also going to brag about it. We started 1-9, -9.20 (after I failed at factoring in home-field advantage), and we currently sit 26-27, +4.70. I think that's the most touting I can take. I'll still track the plays here, but site traffic is always appreciated.

[ScottKimberly]

Not sure if I read the tracking correctly, but I put in three plays today based on your line versus the book.

Atlanta -143
Boston +109
Cleveland -115

Regardless of whether I read it right, I risked 3.58 Units to Win 3.09 and won all three. Up 3.09 units on the bets.

Did I read this correctly in seeing value in those picks?

[lindetrain]

(04-15-2012 04:47 PM)ScottKimberly Wrote:  Not sure if I read the tracking correctly, but I put in three plays today based on your line versus the book.

Atlanta -143
Boston +109
Cleveland -115

Regardless of whether I read it right, I risked 3.58 Units to Win 3.09 and won all three. Up 3.09 units on the bets.

Did I read this correctly in seeing value in those picks?

Well, technically we didn't recommend taking the Braves unless it was -140 or less, but -143 is pretty damn close. The other two were definitely plays at those numbers.

If you look, it has the target lines for each team listed below the true line. You want the target line or better when betting those.

Regardless, nice work

[ScottKimberly]

(04-14-2012 11:16 PM)mount187 Wrote:  Plays for 04-15-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

TOR : -132.27 / BAL : +145.50 (+155) / TOR : -119.05
MIA : -226.20 / HOU : +248.82 / MIA : -203.58 (-190)
PHI : -140.68 / NYM : +154.75 (+155) / PHI : -126.61
CLE : -135.29 / CLE : -121.76 (+105) / KC : +148.81

Also, can someone explain this in greater detail for me? I might have missed the post where these numbers were explained.

[mount187]

(04-15-2012 04:51 PM)ScottKimberly Wrote:  

(04-14-2012 11:16 PM)mount187 Wrote:  Plays for 04-15-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

TOR : -132.27 / BAL : +145.50 (+155) / TOR : -119.05
MIA : -226.20 / HOU : +248.82 / MIA : -203.58 (-190)
PHI : -140.68 / NYM : +154.75 (+155) / PHI : -126.61
CLE : -135.29 / CLE : -121.76 (+105) / KC : +148.81

Also, can someone explain this in greater detail for me? I might have missed the post where these numbers were explained.

Plays for 04-15-2012, 10% edge (My Line / Away Value Line (BOL Away Open) / Home Value Line (BOL Home Open))

This means:

The teams in bold are the teams that we feel have a 10% or greater edge based on the opening line (we use BetOnline as our reference point for opening lines). The line we would set on the game with no juice (our True Line) is listed on the far left. Then each team's Target Line is listed to the right (the Target Line is a line that would be 10% in our favor*). The teams in bold have the opening number in parenthesis that meets our criteria.

*When we say 10% in our favor, that means a dog is either getting 10% more in return (+132 instead of +120), or a favorite is paying 10% less (-150 instead of -165).

Here is an example from above:

TOR : True Line / BAL : 10% Target Line (Actual Line) / TOR : 10% Target Line
TOR : -132.27 / BAL : +145.50 (+155) / TOR : -119.05

Since we had BAL's True Line at +132.27, that sets their Target Line at +145.50. The actual line opened higher than that (+155 has $.10 more value than +145.50), so we made a play on that line.

If I did a poor job explaining that, let me know and I'll try to break it down further.

[ScottKimberly]

No that's perfect. I am relatively new to the nuts and bolts of line movement, so it seems foreign at first. I am interested in learning more though. Thanks a lot.