The ITG Team

[itg_sports]

Since this is the only forum I frequent and I have claimed it as the official forum of the ITG Team I decided to start this thread. I am going to encourage any ITG Team member that is not already signed up to do so and to also frequent this thread. It is amazing how often all of the guys correspond on twitter and maybe this can be a place where they can expand on that correspondence.

[jcrosby82]

Just signed up, today's picks As, mariners, royals. 1-1 yesterday for +.2. Usually play mainly dogs in MLB, flat betting 1 a game.

[SportsCheetah]

Officially in. You guys can find my plays and other information/analysis on my twitter handle @sportscheeetah

[Wiseguy]

Cheetah you have been on a hell of a run! Congrats

[DFW_Winners]

Just joined the forum as well, find my plays at: @DFW_Winners

[chadnov]

whas up my fellow #ITGTEAM members lets get this money!!!

Im @CHADNOV59 on twitter
CHEERS

[itg_sports]

Non ITG members are allowed to post too.

As long as they are nice. -

[SportsCheetah]

Wanted to open up any discussion on this analysis I have for tonight's game. Feel free to shoot it down or throw in any of your advice.

In Game 1 the Spurs shot the worst from 3 and from the FT line they have all playoffs. They turned it over 14 times in the first half. Parker and Duncan played very poorly, and Green/Leonard/Boner shot a combined 1/10 from 3 while those guys had been shooting 40-50% from deep consistently for months. I know that Westbrook and Harden had bad games, but remember so did the Spurs 2 most important players. Manu Ginoboli managed to match Durant's solid game, off the bench. Best coach in NBA in Greg Pop making adjustments after game 1, one of the worst X's and O's coaches in Scott Brooks facing him. (I won't even mention Derrick Fishers random 6-6 start for 13 points, all on jumpers, after shooting 32-102 from 15-ft+ for the Thunder on the season up to that point. Okay I mentioned it).

I'm sure you see where I am getting at here. I love the Spurs tonight. All of the statistics and game situations point to San Antonio. Some of you may know I have a background in Sport Psychology. There is a completely different angle on top of the statistics that I think point HEAVILY toward the Spurs. The Thunder were down in the 4th at 2 different times against the Mavs, Dallas gave the games away, and OKC got wins in games they were actually outplayed in. The Lakers in game 2 and 4 pulled a Dallas and gave away substantial leads to the Thunder in some of the strangest passes to OKC players giving them wide-open dunks in transition plays I've ever seen... the Thunder caught some breaks and won both of those games. But what happened in game 1 of the WCF to the Thunder was a little taste of their own magic medicine from earlier in the playoffs. They were up 9 going into the 4th, lost a lead, and had 0 answer for the Spurs in the 4th Q. Difference was in this one that they didn't give this game away... San Antonio started getting easy buckets, made a few jumpers, and got to the FT line. The Spurs started executing. The Thunder realized this and looked astonishingly amazed at how outplayed they were when the Spurs turned it on.

The Thunder have NEVER faced this type of adversity. They are young, of course, which helps the argument... but at this point OKC has never had to recuperate from a loss like this. How do they bounce back? Are they mentally tough enough to let a game like game 1 go? Why should I believe they are when they have a guy like Westbrook running the show and a coach like Scott Brooks trying to lead this team to victories by benching Serge Ibaka, the leagues shot-block leader, for the entire 4th Q and for more than 15 minutes at a time? And all of this on the road against a team that has won 19 straight and are 30-2 since March 21st??? With the veteran leadership and poise that is literally the polar opposite of that of the Thunder?

I am making a LARGE play on the Spurs tonight. We saw in game 1, if it weren't for a strange three 3's in 16.9 seconds while fouling when the game was already over stretch, that the Spurs would have covered game 1 despite the terrible start. I am curious how anyone could argue the Thunder are the right play here. Share your thoughts. I don't think OKC is mentally tough enough to bounce back from that game 1 collapse. This is part of the experience they will gain and use in the future to win a title, one day, but right now I don't see it happening. The Spurs should win this game by 10+.

[jp144]

100% agree with this, only way i see Thunder winning this is if RWB/KW/Harden get really hot, and Spurs go cold.

to add to the spurs argument, Jackson had some lock down D on KD in the 4Q, if that continues into G2, its looking good for spurs.

but the biggest one for me is, as mentioned, Pop>Brooks, and thats gonna be OKC's main donwfall for this series

[squanto8]

nice post. agree with a lot that you mentioned and i will also be on the spurs tonight. and i expect to win

[ZonaCats]

Thunder would've won if Iblocka wasn't riding the pine. Those layups wouldn't have been as easy. Brooks won't make the same mistake twice....

For 3 quarters, the spurs were outmatched athletically. OKC wouldn't let them execute until the 4th and then it snowballed.

[itg_sports]

Way to give this thread a little life Sportscheetah. I thought I was going to have to file it away with the other failed ITG ideas.

[the dude]

(05-29-2012 05:19 PM)SportsCheetah Wrote:  The Thunder have NEVER faced this type of adversity. They are young, of course, which helps the argument... but at this point OKC has never had to recuperate from a loss like this. How do they bounce back? Are they mentally tough enough to let a game like game 1 go? Why should I believe they are when they have a guy like Westbrook running the show and a coach like Scott Brooks trying to lead this team to victories by benching Serge Ibaka, the leagues shot-block leader, for the entire 4th Q and for more than 15 minutes at a time? And all of this on the road against a team that has won 19 straight and are 30-2 since March 21st??? With the veteran leadership and poise that is literally the polar opposite of that of the Thunder?

The Thunder lost Game 1 away in last season's WCF against Dallas and came back to win Game 2.

That's not saying I don't agree with your bet, but just thought I'd point that out. It seems as though everywhere I've read today, the consensus is to bet on the Thunder, which makes me lean your way.

[Beyond the Bets]

Welcome to the forum, Cheetah. Appreciate you taking the time to provide a thorough write-up, too.

[itg_sports]

Great Job Sports Cheetah. We won't tell anyone in here about the almanac.

[SportsCheetah]

Haha that stays between me and you man. Appreciate the shout out though from BTB, glad to be here. It is late and we all know the outcome of the game, (although the Thunder did sort of make me sweat there for a minute). It was a nice win. But I wanted to clarify one thing that "the dude" wrote a few posts up.

"The Thunder lost Game 1 away in last season's WCF against Dallas and came back to win Game 2.

That's not saying I don't agree with your bet, but just thought I'd point that out. It seems as though everywhere I've read today, the consensus is to bet on the Thunder, which makes me lean your way."

The main part I was questioning the Thunder about overcoming was blowing a game they had so dominantly played for 3 quarters, losing it, and coming back the next game fired up and ready to steal one back. As we know they came out flat, fell down early, then eventually 22. In that Dallas game 1, they never really had that game in hand, for example up double digits in the 4th Q (like against Spurs game 1). There are different realities and reactions by players and teams to different types of losses. Some people will say a loss is a loss, or a win is a win... but in the sports betting world, I think certain types of losses, or wins for that matter, need to be accounted for. It is important to remember that. In this case, my gut was telling me that OKC was not prepared mentally (whether it was experience, or lack of mental toughness, or coaching, or a combination of all 3) after the game 1 collapse to pull this off on the road. That was the main idea behind the post aside from the stats that in my opinion also blatantly pointed toward San Antonio.

Hope a few people were on the play. Appreciated the feedback as always.

[SkyBlues42]

I was on the opposite side.

Nice call, though. And really good write up before the game. Much appreciated. It was interesting to watch. For the first three quarters I thought Ok. City had no chance of covering the spread. In the fourth, my confidence came back until Westbrook decided to play without Durant.

Should have seen that coming.

[squanto8]

This is my first true write-up/analysis for anything. While I am doing this as a member of the ITGteam, I want to hear from everyone. No one can be perfect, everyone has differences in opinion. Only ask that you be respectful of each other, and try not to be too critical of me ;). All the lines I post will be from 5Dimes. I want to start this now with Group Futures and Championship Futures, and I will continue to post on every game, regardless of whether or not I have a real lean or opinion on a bet. Let's jump into the groups:

Group A is perhaps the weakest group in the field, with the Czech Republic, Greece, Poland, and Russia. I'll start with saying that if you absolutely need to take 1 Group Winner Future, it has to be Russia +165. IMO, they are hands down the best team in this group, and coming off a 3-0 win against Italy, they seem to have each other figured out quite nicely. Their draw against Lithuania was not a good performance, but I feel very confident that they will pull of a string of victories and finish on top.

Poland is a very interesting squad led by 3 of the German champion Borussia Dortmund squad, including excellent striker Robert Lewandowski. Their real weakness lies in defense, where outside of Arsenal keeper Wojciech Szczesny, they are incredibly thin. The midfield, led by captain Jakub Błaszczykowski, is capable of complementing its forwards and are more than capable of providing scoring. They are in their home country for the Group stage, and opening Euro they will definitely be looking to start off with a bang.

The Czech Republic are probably going to be the main competitors against Poland for second in the group. Led by Chelsea keeper Petr Cech, they are a decent defensive team, and really lack the offensive firepower to compete in Euro. When Tomas Rosicky, Czech captain, is your main creative force and gets limited time on Arsenal, you’re bound to have problems. There are nice pieces here with Jaroslav Plasil, Rosicky, and full backs Theodor Gebre Selassie and Michal Kadlec, but I don’t know if it’s enough. Truthfully, Cech may need to bring some Chelsea magic to help this squad get out of its group.

Finally we have Greece, tied for lowest odds to win Euro with the Republic of Ireland. The Greeks are, if nothing else, committed to playing defense. The issue with this tactic is that they do not have a good counter and on top of that, seem to forget that it’s possible to actually score. I will be shocked if the Greeks win a game, I’ll be blunt. They are more than capable of drawing, but asking for more than one goal a game from them may actually be impossible. Perhaps a surprise draw against Poland or the Czechs, but I don’t think I see anything else coming out of them.

So what future do we want? Yes, Russia +165 to win Group A. There is also definitely value in the Straight Forecast with Russia 1st/Poland 2nd and Russia 1st/Czech Republic 2nd , +495 and +680 because I feel that Russia is far and away the best team in Group A. If I was a betting man (oh wait, I am), I’m taking Poland at home, so Russia/Poland +495.


Group B
This is the true group from hell: Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, and Denmark. I pay no attention to FIFA rankings as I feel they are incredibly flawed, but these 4 teams are in the top 10 of those rankings. This group will have goals, some incompetent defending (Portugal, I’m looking at you), grown men crying like babies on the ground (Ronaldo, I’m looking at you), and some insanely selfish play (Nani, I’m looking at you). I’m going to start with this: having arguably the 2nd best player in the world (sorry, Messi is better) does not mean your team will win Euro. I’ll get to it. Let’s start with…

Ze Germans. I’ll let you know now, I picked Germany to win Euro after their 3rd place win against Uruguay. Obviously, I realize Spain won the WC and barring catastrophic changes/injuries/lightning strikes from God, they would be favorites to win Euro, and deservedly so. But I’ll get into that later as well. Germany is, next to a completely healthy Spain, the most complete team top to bottom in not only Euro, but the world. They have an excellent goalie in Neuer who has great size and instincts. Their defenders are phenomenal (minus Mertesacker who is an embarrassment for his size), starting with their captain Phillip Lahm. Jerome Boateng failed in England, but he is excellent at getting forward and at 23 has really matured into a much better player than the one he was 2 years ago on Manchester City. Holger Badstuber is also a young, promising defender in the back with a long future ahead of him. Then you have the midfield: the reinvented Bastian Schweinsteiger pulling strings from his new role deeper in the formation, Ozil providing the creativity in the midfield, Khedira holding down the middle, and the young guns in Mario Gotze and Toni Kroos providing even more spark. Up front, Mario Gomez coming off a stellar year for Bayern, the veterans Podolski and Klose – and Thomas Muller rounding out the forwards. The most impressive part of Germany’s game to me is their counter; they will score early, and when teams start to come farther forward, they are clinical at starting runs back into their opponent’s zone and they will make you pay for it. Anything less than a title will be a disappointment for the Germans.

After that bout of favoritism, there is of course the Dutch juggernaut, another excellent team with depth everywhere. Stekelenburg in goal, van der Wiel, Heitinga, Mathijsen in the back provide a more than adequate defense for the real stars of the team in the midfield and forwards. The ageless captain Mark van Bommel, flanked by Robben, Sneijder, and Van der Vaart in the middle, with Huntelaar and the best 2011-2012 EPL forward, Aresenal striker Robin van Persie. This is another team that will score goals, and has the ability to make a run for the title. Coming off their heartbreaking WC2010 loss to Spain, everyone is aware that the Netherlands will have their eyes set on that 2012 trophy, and they have an excellent shot to do so. Germany vs Netherlands in this group stage is going to be one hell of a match, and they match up incredibly well. This group is easily the toughest to pick the winner of, but I can tell you with confidence that it will be one of these two teams. The rest…

Portugal, and their prodigal son Cristiano. The midfield of Portugal is probably up to par with that of Germany and the Netherlands, but everywhere else it truly is not. Shaky goaltending and older defenders (who while experienced, are clearly losing a step and will not be able to keep up with the younger players in the group) are the key spots where Portugal is lacking. The defenders I will say are good at attacking, but they are not reliable to do their main job – DEFEND. Moutinho, Miereles, and Nani are all worthy midfield starters, and Moutinho in particular must step up as the attack will need to start through him. And of course, Ronaldo up front with Almeida is always a nice thing to have. I look at this team and I see offensive minded players in every position, and to win a championship like Euro, that’s not the right mentality to only have. Ronaldo’s struggles on the international level have also been well documented, so the pressure is on for him to perform. It’s too bad they’re not in Group A, where they’d have a very realistic shot to advance. Instead they’re in the Group of Death, along with…

Denmark, who while universally has been written off, actually beat Portugal in Euro qualifying. The best thing going for the Danes is that they’ve been written off by everyone already. They are not a bad team; in fact they’re quite a good team. Anderson will start in net for the injured Tomas Sorenson, whose injury will definitely hurt the team. Daniel Agger has always been a solid EPL player and physical defender, Jacobsen and Poulsen coming forward to attack, and there is of course the next great European defender in Simon Kjaer alongside him. The midfield is comprised of hard-working wide-outs Dennis Rommedahl and Michael Krohn-Dehli who will whip crosses into the box for on-loan Sunderland striker Niklas Bendtner. And I may be the only person in the world who thinks Bendtner is a decent forward, but honestly he was never going to cut it with RVP in front of him at Arsenal, and he did do well in his loan spell at Sunderland. The Denmark – Portugal group game is one I will especially circle and look at for a serious value play.

So who do we want? For outright winners, Germany and the Netherlands are 2nd and 3rd favorites behind Spain. Netherlands at +670 is incredible value, considering Spain is at +280 and riddled with injuries. Germany at +320 isn’t great, but if you believe that they will win grab it. An interesting future may be the Nominate Finalists; it isn’t too hard to conceive that Germany/Netherlands reach each other in the finals. At +840, that’s something you could take a look at and feel pretty good about. Both these teams offer good choices for Top Goal Scorer as well, if that’s something you’d be interested in. Van Persie and Gomez will likely play the poacher role for their respective teams, and if you expect either to make a long run, it could be worth a play at +970 and +1075. Klaas Jan Huntelaar would also be a good consideration at +1700.

So the Group B winner odds are Germany +129 and the Netherlands +197 at the moment. I think it’s almost guaranteed one of them wins, so if you’re into “guaranteed” profit, by all means make a quick small buck by taking both. The Straight Forecast offers better odds than that though if you believe in these teams. Germany 1st/Netherlands 2nd +260 and Netherlands 1st/Germany 2nd +360 are also strong possibilities. Myself, I will be taking the Germany 1st/Netherlands 2nd +260 because I truly do believe that Germany is the best team in the field at this exact moment, and Germany +320 to win Euro. I hope I’ve been impartial as possible so far (except for the Germany blurb and the Portugal slander), I am only interested in providing a successful guide to betting this classic tournament.

Group C has the last 2 WC champions, and both are missing key players due to injury. Spain is the odds-on favorite to win Euro, attempting to become the first team ever to win 3 major tournaments in a row (Euro2008 and World Cup 2010). Spain is loaded, and they have played together and understand each other as well as anyone in the field. Everyone knows their stars – Xavi, Iniesta, and Silva pulling strings and Fernando Llorente likely to lead the line in place of injured David Villa. In the back, Sergio Ramos is moving from full-back to center-back alongside Pique to take the place of injured captain Carlos Puyol. I love Spain – the way they move together, the flow from build-up to finish, and the creativity that any player can provide. Spain can win Euro, but I have several concerns that trouble me. One, they are missing their best forward and goal-scorer in Villa. Yes, Llorente, Soldado, and Torres if he’s found his confidence again are all good-very good strikers, but David Villa is an absolute clinician who seems to finish every opportunity. Remember, in the World Cup Spain seemingly won every game 1-0, with Villa scoring a good portion of them. One of these three needs to come out and shine in the tournament. My second concern is with Ramos. Ramos is excellent at going forward from the back, one of the best in the world, but now in central defense he needs to be sure to get back and protect his net much more than on the flank. If he becomes too preoccupied with setting up scoring chances and starting runs, exposing the back could lead to an untimely goal or two. This is a great squad though, and I expect them to make a deep run.

The 2006 champions, Italy, are another team riddled with injuries. Fellow New Jersey native Giuseppe Rossi (who spurned the United States along with Neven Subotic who could’ve made this US team something incredible, but I digress) chose to play for Italy internationally but suffered serious injuries over the last year and will not participate. Antonio Cassano has returned after heart complications sidelined him, and he will partner the ever entertaining Mario Balotelli up top. There is a ton of talent and experience on this team with De Rossi and Pirlo, Buffon in the back with Barzagli and Bonucci. Questions remain with how well this team can gel – they were embarrassed by Russia last week – and age will play a factor. How well will the old guard play? Balotelli has already threatened to walk off the pitch if he hears racial abuse, and he has a history of being a loose cannon. The 3-5-2 formation they play is also something that Spain especially can exploit in the group stage. They have a shot to advance, but their key match-up will be against the other team in blue…

Croatia. Led by Luka Modric, this is a team that everyone is looking out for. They have the offensive playmakers in Darijo Srna and Modric, capable forwards Mandzukic and Everton sensation Nikica Jelavic. Defense and goalkeeping are the keys to their success. This team is not full of household names, but they’re creativity in midfield and ability to score up front is something that can carry them through. The best defense is a good offense, especially in the case of Croatia. They will give teams trouble and may prove to be a difficult test for teams ahead. Lastly we have...

Ireland. And while they are tied with Greece for the worst chance of winning, this isn’t a terrible team. They have a group of solid players, but no real superstars. Given is an above-average goalie with an above-average CB in Richard Dunne, but his fellow defenders are average with little to contribute offensively. Veteran Damien Duff showed life with Fulham this year, and I expect promising James McClean to get significant time in the group stage with lack-luster midfielders ahead of him. The strikers up top are also decent players, but Robbie Keane is past his prime and Kevin Doyle has been inconsistent. This is another team playing to be spoiler for one of the big guns, and if I had to guess the team that would get the most trouble is Italy with that 3 defender formation. I don’t expect them to advance, but they will come out to play every match day.

In terms of futures, I think Spain is a universal lock to win this group as the far and away best team in the group. This is another situation where Straight Forecast could be a nice play. I like Spain 1st/Croatia 2nd at +405. Spain is -177 to win the group, not good value there at all. I also think this is a good group to pick the Finish Last. Sorry Ireland backers, at -115 I think that’s a good enough line to take. No way you’re getting plus money in a group with these 3 teams. Top Goalscorer for this group could be Fernando Llorente +1700, and if you want to take a shot at Torres getting hot, he’s at +1750. Alright, last group and probably my favorite for value…

Group D, where I love the fact they out France and England together (obviously random but still) with Sweden and 2nd host Ukraine. Let’s start with England. New coach, old man Hodgson. No Rooney, banned for 2 games. Frank Lampard out, who has played well despite his age for his country. Gareth Barry is out, who does well to protect the middle. Old captain Rio Ferdinand is out, and Steven Gerrard is set to start his new duties as English captain. There is so much talent on this team, I just don’t know how well the youth up front will work together and if the old legs in back can keep up. Joe Hart is a great keeper. In front of him, Gary Cahill is gone with a broken jaw which means Everton’s Phil Jagielka or young Phil Jones will likely start in his place. Ashley Cole is still a world class LB, and John Terry remains a physical defender despite losing some pace. Scott Parker is the English poor man’s equivalent to Schweinsteiger but a little older, and captain Steven Gerrard will need to shake off his early injuries and step up to play in the central midfield. Wings are a serious question – will teenager Alex the Ox play on the left in front of Walcott? Young can play on the right but is currently in a position that Rooney or Welbeck would start in as the second forward in a 4-4-1-1. This team has massively underperformed in recent years, and without Wazza I don’t know how they beat the…

French. After a disgraceful World Cup, Laurent Blanc has literally turned this team upside down in the best way. They have Madrid’s Karim Benzema leading the line with world class LM Franck Ribery and Man City’s Samir Nasri. Malouda provides more width as a LCM, and Yohan Cabaye was a dream come true for Newcastle this season. Evra leads the back line with Mexes and Rami in front of Hugo Lloris with Alou Diarra providing additional coverage as a holding middie. Off the bench is even more talent, with the likes of M’Villa and Hatem Ben Arfa. Really the thinness at center forward is the biggest issue on paper, but Benzema found his form this year under Mourinho. I love this team. I think they’re out to prove the naysayers wrong and overcome their World Cup performance. In my opinion, this is the right favorite for the group and they will win.

Sweden is my personal favorite to beat the English in the group to advance. It seems that after the failed La Liga experience, Zlatan Ibrahimovic was written off in Serie A after being a world-class striker for several years. Sebastian Larsson will be the key midfielder to provide scoring and goal opportunites, as well as Rasmus Elm. Blackburn’s Martin Olsson and Celtic’s Mikael Lustig can bomb forward to provide problems for opposition, and Olof Mellberg is still reliable at CB at 35. They have put together some impressive victories including a thrashing of Croatia and a win against Serbia this week. They have options with Elmander and Toivonen as their top forward, and most importantly they will play England again without Wayne Rooney. Taking away the best player on the pitch and replacing him with 20 year old Danny Welbeck is an excellent tradeoff if you are Sweden. They have the ability to advance.

Lastly (phew), is the host nation of Ukraine. They are a potent scoring team, and can score from the midfield as well as their forwards. Andriy Shevchenko (!!) will still lead the line in Euro 2012, Andriy Yarmolenko and Oleg Husiev will provide width and the midfielders will have to score for the Ukraine. They are missing Oleksandr Shovkosky, 1st team GK, which will be an issue as well as with poor defending. The hosts will need several unexpected results to move on past the group stage, especially with their last match against England with the return of Wayne Rooney.

So futures, I love France to win this group at +165. They have all the pieces and motives to come out firing, especially with England on tap first. Second, I don’t want to completely throw England under the bus. For value though, I’m taking Straight Forecast France 1st/Sweden 2nd at +1100. There’s no reason why that’s not possible, especially with England’s depleted squad and the second match of Rooney’s ban going against Sweden. I like France to win the group enough to not consider the Dual Forecast, but that is always an option. Top Goalscorers to consider could be Benzema +1250 and Ibra +4500.

And that I believe is that. I hope you found this informative. It took me a couple days to write this, and I know knew injury news will out so if something is a little off with rosters, excuse it. If you catch something like that, you probably know enough about teams to make a decision on games on your own. I plan on posting my take on every game for the tournament, whether or not I have a play. These are my humble opinions on teams, and I’ve already said I lean heavily toward Germany winning this tournament, but there is definitely a case for several other teams. Soccer is unpredictable – ask Greece in 2004. Last thing I want to mention is that last year, there were 5 draws in 31 games, 3 in the group stages and 2 in the quarterfinals. Don’t be afraid of the draw option, these teams are gunning for wins and points to advance. If you want to ask me more questions, you can tweet at me @Squanto8 and I usually get back to everyone (not like there’s that many). So enjoy the tournament, and I’ll be back to share my game opinions starting with Friday’s games (hint: Russia +116, Poland under 2).

PS. if the formatting is real annoying, I am attaching a word doc of what I wrote. realize this is lengthy and you may want to read at your leisure. thanks all for your time

[JetsMetsRangers]

Great post man, thanks

[SkyBlues42]

(06-07-2012 01:51 AM)squanto8 Wrote:  After that bout of favoritism, there is of course the Dutch juggernaut, another excellent team with depth everywhere. Stekelenburg in goal, van der Wiel, Heitinga, Mathijsen in the back provide a more than adequate defense for the real stars of the team in the midfield and forwards. The ageless captain Mark van Bommel, flanked by Robben, Sneijder, and Van der Vaart in the middle, with Huntelaar and the best 2011-2012 EPL forward, Aresenal striker Robin van Persie. This is another team that will score goals, and has the ability to make a run for the title. Coming off their heartbreaking WC2010 loss to Spain, everyone is aware that the Netherlands will have their eyes set on that 2012 trophy, and they have an excellent shot to do so. Germany vs Netherlands in this group stage is going to be one hell of a match, and they match up incredibly well. This group is easily the toughest to pick the winner of, but I can tell you with confidence that it will be one of these two teams. The rest…

I have Netherlands winning it all, but I actually disagree with you about the defense being more than adequate. It's actually their biggest flaw, in addition to being the one spot where they lack depth. So why are they my pick to win? I'm not sure their lack of talent in the back will be that big of an issue. I think most teams will approach them and think they have to play defense first, since the attack is one of the best in the tournament.

If opponents don't focus their attention on players like Robben, van Persie, Sneijder etc., they'll find themselves either behind by a goal or two, or in a shoot out.

van Bommel is interesting, because he's earned a reputation as one of the dirtiest players in the world. I think the intimidation factor will help, but the refs will also be aware. Have to imagine they won't allow him to get away with much this time around. Hoping he keeps his head in the game, because nothing good can come from him getting sent off.