Tennessee/Kentucky

[lindetrain]

Yes, I'm a UK homer, so feel free to take this long-winded writeup with a grain of salt...just wanted to share my thoughts on the Cats and the Vols.

To preface - I feel like I've had a pretty good read on this series over the past five years. Took the Cats +21 or so when they went to Knoxville and were three yards from winning it outright in '06, narrowly missed when I played the Cats -2.5 in '07 (wide open WR in the end zone at the end of regulation to win it, and blocked chip shot in OT to win it), and cashed with the Vols each of the last two seasons. I don't force a play on this game each year by any means, but given how closely I pay attention to each team in the weeks leading up to it, I almost always have some kind of opinion on it.

I've always argued that Kentucky will end this streak when it is least expected. Over the past decade, some of our best efforts have come when we are heavily dogged - in '01, when we jumped out to a 21-0 lead on our way to lose by a FG; in '04, when we were god awful and blew a two-possession lead late in Neyland; and in '06, when the Vols had a hell of a team but we nearly pulled it out. Conversely, some of our biggest duds have come when everyone is clamoring "this is the year" - in '02, when the Cats and Vols were both 7-4 coming in but UT took us behind the woodshed; in '07, when we were favored; in '08, when UT had only won three games and was only laying 3 in Knoxville; last year, when we were the more experienced team with a better record.

This year is definitely the former, as UK fans have given up all hope and see no way our miserable bunch will beat a Vols team with Bray back and needing a win to obtain bowl eligibility. I disagree, as I think it's a dogshit spot for UT and expect an ugly contest that will go down to the wire, with the Cats having a shot to win it.

I watched a majority of the Vandy/UT game this past Saturday, and despite it being a miserable spot for the Dores and a great spot for the Vols, UT still had no business winning it. Benefited from a huge penalty to keep a late drive alive, scoring on 4th and goal the next play - then we all saw what happened in OT. Yes, they did put up 27 points, but make no mistake - their offense was very average most of the night. 13 of the 27 points either came from or were set up by the D, with another 7 coming after the game-changing penalty. Bray forced throws all night, and the Vols didn't even manage 300 yards offense overall. While many believe it's just a matter of being rusty, I can't help but think Bray won't be nearly as effective as he was prior to the injury, and the offense being altered to cater to his hand is not good news for UT. Furthermore, the fact that the Cats now have film on how UT is running the offense will only benefit them, as the Vols no longer have the element of surprise in regards to what new wrinkles they are incorporating into their scheme.

Despite the need for a win, I really think the Vols come out flat. The Vandy win was HUGE to them - I've seen a few videos of them acting like they just beat a top 10 team in the locker room after the game - and I don't think they can match the same intensity as a moderate-sized road fave against a team that simply never beats them. Also, considering they handled UK in this exact scenario last year, I have to think they'll be a bit overconfident in their ability to "take care of the Cats" and get their sixth win once again. If you ask me, an average yet overconfident team laying nine points on the road is a recipe for disaster.

As for UK, well, I know there's not much to like on the surface. BUT, despite me laying the chalk with Vandy two weeks ago, I still think this is a different squad now that Smith has taken over. They were in an awful spot against the Dores coming off the win over Ole Miss, but showed they have improved from the first half of the season when they played with some heart and hung tough in Athens last week. Smith got his initiation into the SEC, taking a beating from the Dawgs D all day - while he's a bit banged up, I think that will have toughened him up some going into this one. If nothing else, the D certainly gained some confidence from keeping UGA in check, and can hopefully build on that against a UT offense I think is a bit suspect right now.

One more thing I think should be noted - the last two years, despite being relatively even with the Vols, the Cats have had the difficult task of beating UT in their coach's first season at the helm. There's no doubt it's a heavy point of emphasis for a new head man to continue the dominance of UK, and as a result, a certain urgency he instills in his team leading up to the game. I'm not implying Dooley will take this game lightly, but I do think there is a bit of a comfort level there relative to last year.

Those are just my thoughts on it. I know there aren't any particular matchups or stats that may point you in UK's direction, but those can be very hard to come across when betting on a cellar dweller...doesn't mean they can't compete and potentially win outright in a favorable situation for them.

[minusthegood]

good write up, appreciate the insight.

[Skating Tripods]

I'm surprised at how high the line is given how Tennessee has played all year. I know Bray got hurt, but they haven't looked like any kind of competent team since Justin Hunter went down.

On the other hand, Kentucky straight up blows. Georgia really sleepwalked through that game the other day, I don't think it was an indication of progress from UK.

I'll avoid this game because I think 9 or even 8 is a little high, I'd play on Tennessee at 5 or 6. Since it's a rivalry game, UK might show up. If I were to go strictly on paper, Tennessee at two scores is still worth my money. But, since there are other factors, 9's a little high.

[Beyond the Bets]

I expect a muddy, ugly, low-scoring game. Under is a possibility for me. I'll avoid the side but do lean Kentucky.

[lindetrain]

For those interested...

I have it on good authority that UK's QB situation is BAD going into Saturday's game. As in, one good hit away from WR Matt Roark taking snaps under center. Take this FWIW - I got out of my UK play and took the U44 instead. Just wanted to alert everyone.

[Pujols_5]

(11-23-2011 09:09 PM)lindetrain Wrote:  For those interested...

I have it on good authority that UK's QB situation is BAD going into Saturday's game. As in, one good hit away from WR Matt Roark taking snaps under center. Take this FWIW - I got out of my UK play and took the U44 instead. Just wanted to alert everyone.

UK is treating this like a bowl game. Probably going to be their biggest game of the year and is usually always. POSSIBLY playing to keep Joker's job. Heard they have been having good practices and Winston Guy and Danny Trevathan are seniors that are really looking to go out on top so I take in the emotional factor of them possibly having a big game in Commonwealth. Another stupid meaningless factor is that UK never usually contends with any of the SEC schools each year but usually has a big win or upset each season. They have not really had a big win this year so why not make it the last game of year against a team you haven't beaten in 26 years. I say Tennessee wins but by less than a TD.

[lindetrain]

(11-23-2011 09:15 PM)Pujols_5 Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 09:09 PM)lindetrain Wrote:  For those interested...

I have it on good authority that UK's QB situation is BAD going into Saturday's game. As in, one good hit away from WR Matt Roark taking snaps under center. Take this FWIW - I got out of my UK play and took the U44 instead. Just wanted to alert everyone.

UK is treating this like a bowl game. Probably going to be their biggest game of the year and is usually always. POSSIBLY playing to keep Joker's job. Heard they have been having good practices and Winston Guy and Danny Trevathan are seniors that are really looking to go out on top so I take in the emotional factor of them possibly having a big game in Commonwealth. Another stupid meaningless factor is that UK never usually contends with any of the SEC schools each year but usually has a big win or upset each season. They have not really had a big win this year so why not make it the last game of year against a team you haven't beaten in 26 years. I say Tennessee wins but by less than a TD.

Obviously I agree with most of your points, as evidenced by my initial post. But if I tell you one QB isn't playing and another QB can barely throw the ball, can you back the Cats with confidence?

[Pujols_5]

I shouldn't have replied in spot I did. Basically giving my thoughts on what you did in original post. However, Newton started the year as QB over Smith. Smith has played better and the WR's like catching his ball better but if Newton does start over Smith I don't think it is a gamechanging decision. I am probably wrong but with a offense that doesnt take big chances and UK playing decent defense, I dont think who starts at QB will determine the spread. Agree with Bets that it will be a muddy grind it out game. I say its going to be a field goal game and a spread of Tennessee (+3 to +3 1/2) is closer to what I think.

[lindetrain]

WR Matt Roark to take snaps at QB for the Cats:

http://kentuckysportsradio.com/?p=100075

[Beyond the Bets]

omg

[Spburn2]

Take this with a grain of salt, but per a source Joker Phillips will be out as HC, and the hiring of Mike Leach will be announced within a week of the season ending.

Coming from a decent source, but it is not confirmed. Hopefully its more than wishful thinking.


Edit: Looks like this was nothing but rumors as UK's AD Barnhart gave his vote of confidence to Joker this morning. Though who knows, votes of confidence seem to happen a lot before a firing.

[Spburn2]

And Matt Roark is the starting QB...make your in game bets accordingly if you can

[Beyond the Bets]

On Kentucky, right?

[Spburn2]

Ha ya, thats our wr getting taking over the starting QB duties in the last game of his career. First drive - 14 plays, 62 yards, and a FG. If Dooley can't make the in game adjustments to have this offense bottled up by the mid 2Q, he deserves to be fired.