Talk me out of hammering Reds TT over 3½

[gynecologist]

Seriously, talk to me about this game.. I feel like making a considerable wager on this and feel like the edge is huge here..

Is there any reason not to think the Reds score 4 runs in here? They destroy Gallardo historically, Gallardo is struggling big time right now, whip is 1.80..

Give me some reasons not to bet this, mention some negatives please. I was expecting a TT of 4 and seeing 3½ and knowing I only need 4 runs to win

Thanks in advance.

[ChiefZilla]

The juice at -135?

Haha I don't really know. especially when I see numbers like this in the Gallardo-Reds history. Five main players with OPS north of 1.000!

[gynecologist]

betislands has -120..

[gynecologist]

seriously, scoring 4 runs in a game is not that hard especially at miller park.. we have that..

Gallardo is very inconsistent and like you mentioned has horrificly bad #'s vs Reds. Mil BP hasnt been that great either.. If it was 4 Id like it a lot less cause then you need 5 to win, but only 4? thats not asking for much..

something doesnt feel right though. looks too easy.

[Hokies10]

I'm not familiar with betting TT's, but one thing I have noticed is that when something seem "too easy" there is a reason. Most of the times that I have seen spots identified as a sure winner, it has lost haha. Not saying this will, just an observation...

[mount187]

No real opinion on the TT, but just to throw some more numbers into the equation: -120 is an implied probability of 54.55%, and -135 is 57.45%. Adjust your thinking accordingly.

On sheer opinion, I'd never bet for or against the Reds offense to do anything. Personally (as a Reds fan), the number seems low, but I know Reds fans are crazy disappointed with how erratic the offense has been this year. Bruce may hit five HR in a week, or go two weeks and not hit any. Votto was batting +.300, but lead the team in strikeouts (similar to his MVP season start). At the start of the weekend, the Reds were getting something like a .133 average from the leadoff spot. Is Stubbs going to K four times, or have a bunt single, a HR, two BB, and a SB? Are you going to get 97 year old Scott Rolen, or four years ago Scott Rolen? Way to unpredictable for my taste. Gun to my head, I'd bet the over, but if someone starts putting a gun to my head to force me to take sports bets something has gone horribly wrong. I regret nothing!

[gynecologist]

hokies: same here

mount: Reds are very inconsistent, true..