Starting Monday, I'm fading this team every day

[Beyond the Bets]

The sorry sad-sack Cubs evacuate Wrigley (but not before three straight losses) this evening and will begin a six-game road trip on Monday. So, the Wrigley Fade is on hold for now.

But no worries. There is another fade about to begin that I think is worth your attention.

Time's up, Orioles.

[Black Mamba]

I think BO already graded my Orioles future a loss.

U70.5

I was looking at Boston tomorrow, I'll play along with your fade

[jimmysingh9]

I was looking at fading the Dodgers, they aren't as good as their record either.

[The Posse]

Other than a couple series, their upcoming schedule through June is pretty tough.

[gynecologist]

love it... good luck

[Beyond the Bets]

Boston -108.

[SkyBlues42]

I thought Baltimore was going to collapse earlier. Now, I'm staying away from them. Same goes for the Dodgers. The Orioles next three series aren't extremely difficult so I'm not sure they'l struggle enough to be a profitable fade.

Maybe post All-Star break?

[ChiefZilla]

The Red Sox just scare me. I hate both of these teams.

[BetATL]

Agree, this is a good time to start fading the O's.

And how about the Mets?

Mets are currently (22-19), yet...

They have a run differential of -31, 4th worst in the NL.

They have a BABIP of .327, best in the MLB (implying they may be getting a bit lucky at the plate).

Their starters have a combined ERA of 4.31, 4th worst in the NL.

They have a bullpen ERA of 4.60, 2nd worst in the NL.

They play in arguably the best division in baseball.

They are (8-4) in one run games.

[JetsMetsRangers]

The Mets have a chance to remain decent if Ike Davis snaps out of his funk. He has literally been the worst player in baseball so far. (-1.3 WAR). I hope he isn't pulling an Adam Dunn on us. Bullpen-wise, I expect Francisco and Ramirez to get better. They have some good arms there with Parnell and Byrdak. Mejia should help. Rotation has questions for sure. I wouldn't fade them yet.

[gynecologist]

I've been feeling the Mets have been overachieving without looking at the stats, but after BETATL's showcase I'm more than convinced they aren't as good as record indicates and regression is coming.

I've been involved in quite a bit of Mets games and they have been lucky.. My Dodgers too have been lucky.

[gynecologist]

Dodgers batting .290 w/o Kemp.

[BetThemDogs]

Not so fast there, BTB. If I remember correctly, you agreed with most that you always bet on streaks-- not against them. Isn't this somewhat like betting against a streak? I realize you figure( probably rightly) that Balt has been overachieving and is due to regress. But, how did you determine when to start betting against them. I have been riding them a lot this season, and will continue to do so until they start losing. What if they keep winning for another week or two-- or month? Just wondering about your reasoning here.

Looks like the only one on the O's tonight.

[SkyBlues42]

What streak is baltimore on? a 1 game losing streak?

[BetThemDogs]

I said it was LIKE betting against a streak. Balt has been winning consistently. In the last month they have won 7 out of 8 series ( with a 1-1 vs the Yanks)-- that's 18 wins out of last 25 games. I was simply wondering at the thought process that leads BTB to think now is when it stops.

[gynecologist]

God the Cubs suck.. lol

[Beyond the Bets]

(05-21-2012 09:16 PM)BetThemDogs Wrote:  I said it was LIKE betting against a streak. Balt has been winning consistently. In the last month they have won 7 out of 8 series ( with a 1-1 vs the Yanks)-- that's 18 wins out of last 25 games. I was simply wondering at the thought process that leads BTB to think now is when it stops.

I don't view this as betting against a streak. I've been actively looking to bet against the Orioles for quite some time now, irrespective of winning or losing streaks.

This series against the Red Sox seemed like a perfect time, and for a few reasons:

1. Perception of the Orioles has reached its highest point. They're overvalued.
2. The Red Sox entered the game looking to get to .500 against a team that previously swept them.
3. With a six-game homestand against Boston and Kansas City, I should be able to get teams that I perceive to be better at an incredible price. Even a 3-3 record in the short term should turn a profit.

Every stat or metric you can go by suggests that a regression is forthcoming for the Orioles. They're 11 games above .500 despite outscoring opponents by a combined 12 runs. They're 8-3 in one-run games. They're 6-2 in extra inning games.

The bullpen isn't going to continue to deal like they have, I'm still not sold on the starting staff, and they're a few injuries and an extended losing streak away from the whole thing falling apart.

[ChiefZilla]

Annnnd.... wait for it ........

[BetThemDogs]

Thanks for giving the logic behind your fading Balt. Looks like you're on a 1-0 streak.

[Beyond the Bets]

Boston is -117. Should drop a bit more.