Sharps

[Skating Tripods]

(11-02-2011 01:42 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  As for the 70%. I think I questioned it the wrong. When someone posts 70% of money is Team A, he is usually going to sbrodds,donbest, sportsoptions,sportsinsights and looking at betting percentage. Now they will look at the simple stat that 70% of money is on Team A, but the line hasnt moved, so sharp money has to be on Team B. I dont think that is necessarily the case, but that is what is percieved by the public.

Sites like the ones mentioned above are showing bets as a whole. they wont say this much money came in on LSU +9, then this much money came in on LSU +7 and so on and so on and that makes me render these sites useless, because there is a lack of information out there. Alot of people out there use those sites.

I see what you're saying. Everybody has an agenda. You have to decipher who is telling the truth. What if Colin Cowherd is announcing his picks the opposite of what he really likes to try and get a better number. Y'know, since he moves lines and all.

I can't imagine that those tracking sites update the way they say they do. And if you pay for it thinking it's real-time, you're a sucker.

Quote:Because like you stated before and BTB has stated. A Sharp may like LSU +9 and bet on them but may not like LSU +6.5 and would actually bet Alabama -6.5. depends on the number available and I dont believe unless you have access like you have to sharps, that you will not be able to find that information out.

That was always one of my issues with Millman's sharp/square tweet. Sharps liked Oklahoma State +11, they don't like them as much at 9.5. The problem with following that is he's getting his information fed by his regular contacts who bet early in the week. That's why following any kind of percentage trend can get you in trouble.

It's also why I like to bet later in the week. I can see where a line has settled and make a determination on my own. I'm probably getting the worst of the number, but, if a team was going to cover 10, they should be good enough to cover 12.5.

Line moves between key numbers help. And yes, I will hit a 6 on Thursday before it goes to 7 on Saturday. But, overall, I'll sacrifice a point or two to do more research into my pick and know more details on an injury. Everybody knows NFL injuries. College ones can come out very, very late sometimes.