Sharps

[Skating Tripods]

(11-02-2011 11:57 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Agree. But it seems to be a problem with the betting public or should I say the bettor that is looking to be knowledgeable. Take for example the LSU/Bama game. a poster here said that roughly 70+% is on LSU but the line isnt moving, so maybe heavy money on Bama.

Alot of people are trying to always find the so called "sharp" side in every play, which I dont think is the way to go.

70% of the money at what number? The early number of LSU +9 or the current one around 4.5? Excellent middle if you hit +9 and now can get -4.5, as I think Alabama wins by a TD.

If it's 70% of the money over the last two weeks, obviously it's smart to wait on the number to keep going down if you like Bama.

Good value on LSU ML all week too if you like them. Like what has been discussed earlier on Twitter, this year, taking the points and the ML for the dog has been really profitable in games with single score lines. If you're getting 2 bets on LSU for every 1 bet on Bama, that'll skew the percentage.

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(11-02-2011 11:35 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Adding to this point and another point. Great point about Sharp playing Non-Marquee Games, but you have once against Todd Fuhrman, Chad Millman and others posting on Twitter alot of marquee games that Sharps have hit.

Another Question, what about the NFL. arent they basically all marquee games?

NFL's a different beast. NFL is almost all about the number. In college, it's not as important. Don't take that the wrong way. The number is obviously important, but with such talent divides and coaching gaps, the games aren't lined near as tight as the NFL.

Sharps like getting chalk. I would venture to say that 60/40 or even 65/35 are dogs over favorites for sharps, both CFB and NFL.

I think NFL is more psychological for sharps. They try to enter the minds of the players. Case in point: I like the Redskins this week. SF going east after beating a bad Browns team. Washington played like shit last week, Shanahan was shut out for the first time as a head coach. Are they a better team than SF? Hell no.

But, at 6-1, SF basically only has to win 3 more games to win that division. Washington wants to snap a losing streak and has an outside shot at being in wild card contention (we know they don't, but they probably think they do). SF is ripe to take a week off.

Well within reason to take WSH at +4.5 once the public piles on SF. Sharps hit the opening SF number under 3 and then some might buy back WSH at 4.5 or even just wait until it climbs that high to make any play on that game.


The reason that Fuhrman and Millman tweet about sharps on marquee games is because the majority of their followers are squares. It's solely about grabbing attention. I don't think squares care about a sharp going 3-0 in the Sun Belt. Unless they can watch the game on TV, they don't want to bet it.

Most bettors don't care that there's been a 6 point line swing on the Ball State-Eastern Michigan game. Clearly, sharp money has drilled EMU. It looks like a pretty solid play. A potentially profitable play, especially had you gotten on EMU as a dog. But, it won't even be a blip on the radar with Bama-LSU.

Want to see a sharp line movement? How about Hawaii opening -9 against Utah State and now just -3.5? Squares will have no clue about it and take Hawaii on Saturday night at -4 excited that they got good value. Meanwhile, Hawaii could lose by 2 scores and all the early week signs would have pointed to it.