Sharps

[louiemdj]

Isn't that what Jim and John Harbaugh's dad used to say to them? I swear I read that somewhere.

[Beyond the Bets]

Yep. I've adopted the phrase.

[jimmysingh9]

and now Todd Fuhrman is recommending following cappers from covers.com forums????

I dont understand the logic in this.

[Beyond the Bets]

Too bad he doesn't have the "time" to post here.

[Weebay]

The thing about people posting on twitter about sharp plays is that they do not see the plays as a whole, they are only getting pieces of them. If a sharp is putting 50 plays in on a given cfb saturday and you are only aware of 4 just understand they could go 0-4 on that set, whereas the sharp can still have a solid day at the office. Just don't blow your bankroll when you see these posted.

[jimmysingh9]

(10-31-2011 08:12 PM)Weebay Wrote:  The thing about people posting on twitter about sharp plays is that they do not see the plays as a whole, they are only getting pieces of them. If a sharp is putting 50 plays in on a given cfb saturday and you are only aware of 4 just understand they could go 0-4 on that set, whereas the sharp can still have a solid day at the office. Just don't blow your bankroll when you see these posted.

Thats the thing. We dont get ALL the information, so its funny when Todd or Chad Millman post this information.


I actually found this late, but Teddy Covers did a thing with Sportsmemo capping every college football game for the week. Teddy would do 1 part, but I really enjoyed that. He actually broke down things well and gave you the info you needed. I used it for 3 weeks and it helped but they dont do podcasts anymore.

[RyanParrill]

(10-31-2011 08:15 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  

(10-31-2011 08:12 PM)Weebay Wrote:  The thing about people posting on twitter about sharp plays is that they do not see the plays as a whole, they are only getting pieces of them. If a sharp is putting 50 plays in on a given cfb saturday and you are only aware of 4 just understand they could go 0-4 on that set, whereas the sharp can still have a solid day at the office. Just don't blow your bankroll when you see these posted.

Thats the thing. We dont get ALL the information, so its funny when Todd or Chad Millman post this information.


I actually found this late, but Teddy Covers did a thing with Sportsmemo capping every college football game for the week. Teddy would do 1 part, but I really enjoyed that. He actually broke down things well and gave you the info you needed. I used it for 3 weeks and it helped but they dont do podcasts anymore.

I know the tweets you're speaking of. They come every Saturday/Sunday morning. Sometimes they actually contradict each other. Here's something that came across my feed tonight, "List of college football games that were steamed today: 312, 324, 338, 350, 352, 353, 361, 358, 380, 401"

[Beyond the Bets]

How did the tweet from Maddux contradict anything?

[RyanParrill]

(11-01-2011 07:54 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  How did the tweet from Maddux contradict anything?

The 'tweets' from Covers/Millman over the weekend will sometimes contradict one another. The Maddux tweet was in the following sentence, ran my thoughts together.

[Beyond the Bets]

Oh, got it. I understand now.

[Skating Tripods]

I have a sharp contact out in Vegas. He's a guy originally from Cleveland who I heard once on a Millman podcast and he seemed to be talking about the Browns an insane amount. So I looked him up and we've struck up some sort of a friendship. I guess I'd call it that.

Anyway, after having my second bad week in the last three, I wanted to feel better about myself. This year, I have, stupidly, tried to close myself off from reading a lot about who people are on and why and just handicapping games myself. I'm clearly not sharp since I do my betting on Saturday morning, but I want to confidently research my picks myself and then decide. I was at just 53% entering last week, and went 5-9 on Saturday, so I'm around the break even point now.

In any event, I asked him how much the pros do on their own and how much they do collaborating with each other. You know they talk. You know there's a lot of camaraderie and with all of these sites, a lot of incentive to have consensus picks to post.

What he told me was that he bets opening numbers on his own. Then, he meets with a group. No idea who all is in this group, though he does some work for Pregame, has his own site, and is pretty good friends with Covers and Fezzik. After that meeting on Tuesday, he bets again.

Sharp side solely means the side getting an edge, which means getting a better number. But, that said, I have serious doubts about sharps hitting x% better because they got the line at 1.5 points better. They're also picking the right sides because of the research that they have compiled and whatever algorithms they use to produce their own spread on a game.

It's also about access to information. These guys know how spreads are set. They have tons of betting knowledge to lean on.

Finally, they have the bankroll. If you or I go 56% with the amounts we're betting, we win anywhere from a couple hundred to a couple thousand. If these guys hit 54%, they're winning five or six figures. What's more impressive? The amount you're winning or the percentage you're hitting?

For me, it's percentage. But, for guys who do it for a living, if 54% pays the bills, what do they care?

[Beyond the Bets]

ST is back!

[Skating Tripods]

(11-02-2011 11:24 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  ST is back!

Good to be back. Was out of town the last three days. Didn't post much prior to that, but I see great things are happening. Increased traffic, So Money Nation on board, good to see the forums progressing.

[Beyond the Bets]

I know, but man, it hit a lull without our Poster of the Month.

Which reminds me. It's November!

[jimmysingh9]

(11-02-2011 11:22 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Finally, they have the bankroll. If you or I go 56% with the amounts we're betting, we win anywhere from a couple hundred to a couple thousand. If these guys hit 54%, they're winning five or six figures. What's more impressive? The amount you're winning or the percentage you're hitting?

For me, it's percentage. But, for guys who do it for a living, if 54% pays the bills, what do they care?

Great Information. But the last two paragraphs I think will further emphasize the overreaction to people using sharp side. If Sharps are indeed hitting around a 54% clip or even 2-3% better. There is no point in finding out where the Sharp side is.

Unless you are playing every single side that Sharps play. You are basically coin flipping which side of a Sharp Play you are on(the winning side/losing side). sure you will have a 4-7% better chance than a coin flip in the long run. But that is nothing to make a wager over.

[Skating Tripods]

(11-02-2011 11:35 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Great Information. But the last two paragraphs I think will further emphasize the overreaction to people using sharp side. If Sharps are indeed hitting around a 54% clip or even 2-3% better. There is no point in finding out where the Sharp side is.

Unless you are playing every single side that Sharps play. You are basically coin flipping which side of a Sharp Play you are on(the winning side/losing side). sure you will have a 4-7% better chance than a coin flip in the long run. But that is nothing to make a wager over.

No, but this year is a bad example of the sharp v. square debate. Heavy public teams tend to do well against the spread, but they don't do it all at once the way they have this year.

Where the sharp sides make their money is on the non-marquee games. They're always going to have opinions on marquee games and those are the ones people want to see but the lines are tighter and they have a harder time finding the necessary value.

Just like there are public teams, there are sharp teams as well. The last couple years, I've noticed sharps gravitating to LA Tech, Bowling Green, and North Carolina.

Like I said, the 2-3% isn't much with what most of us bet. Putting your faith in sharps is just like listening to a stockbroker. Same with buying picks from touts. Same with blindly following sharps on Saturday/Sunday.

[jimmysingh9]

(11-02-2011 11:46 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(11-02-2011 11:35 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Great Information. But the last two paragraphs I think will further emphasize the overreaction to people using sharp side. If Sharps are indeed hitting around a 54% clip or even 2-3% better. There is no point in finding out where the Sharp side is.

Unless you are playing every single side that Sharps play. You are basically coin flipping which side of a Sharp Play you are on(the winning side/losing side). sure you will have a 4-7% better chance than a coin flip in the long run. But that is nothing to make a wager over.

No, but this year is a bad example of the sharp v. square debate. Heavy public teams tend to do well against the spread, but they don't do it all at once the way they have this year.

Where the sharp sides make their money is on the non-marquee games. They're always going to have opinions on marquee games and those are the ones people want to see but the lines are tighter and they have a harder time finding the necessary value.

Just like there are public teams, there are sharp teams as well. The last couple years, I've noticed sharps gravitating to LA Tech, Bowling Green, and North Carolina.

Like I said, the 2-3% isn't much with what most of us bet. Putting your faith in sharps is just like listening to a stockbroker. Same with buying picks from touts. Same with blindly following sharps on Saturday/Sunday.

Agree. But it seems to be a problem with the betting public or should I say the bettor that is looking to be knowledgeable. Take for example the LSU/Bama game. a poster here said that roughly 70+% is on LSU but the line isnt moving, so maybe heavy money on Bama.

Alot of people are trying to always find the so called "sharp" side in every play, which I dont think is the way to go.

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(11-02-2011 11:46 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(11-02-2011 11:35 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Great Information. But the last two paragraphs I think will further emphasize the overreaction to people using sharp side. If Sharps are indeed hitting around a 54% clip or even 2-3% better. There is no point in finding out where the Sharp side is.

Unless you are playing every single side that Sharps play. You are basically coin flipping which side of a Sharp Play you are on(the winning side/losing side). sure you will have a 4-7% better chance than a coin flip in the long run. But that is nothing to make a wager over.

No, but this year is a bad example of the sharp v. square debate. Heavy public teams tend to do well against the spread, but they don't do it all at once the way they have this year.

Where the sharp sides make their money is on the non-marquee games. They're always going to have opinions on marquee games and those are the ones people want to see but the lines are tighter and they have a harder time finding the necessary value.

Just like there are public teams, there are sharp teams as well. The last couple years, I've noticed sharps gravitating to LA Tech, Bowling Green, and North Carolina.

Like I said, the 2-3% isn't much with what most of us bet. Putting your faith in sharps is just like listening to a stockbroker. Same with buying picks from touts. Same with blindly following sharps on Saturday/Sunday.

Adding to this point and another point. Great point about Sharp playing Non-Marquee Games, but you have once against Todd Fuhrman, Chad Millman and others posting on Twitter alot of marquee games that Sharps have hit.

Another Question, what about the NFL. arent they basically all marquee games?

[Skating Tripods]

(11-02-2011 11:57 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Agree. But it seems to be a problem with the betting public or should I say the bettor that is looking to be knowledgeable. Take for example the LSU/Bama game. a poster here said that roughly 70+% is on LSU but the line isnt moving, so maybe heavy money on Bama.

Alot of people are trying to always find the so called "sharp" side in every play, which I dont think is the way to go.

70% of the money at what number? The early number of LSU +9 or the current one around 4.5? Excellent middle if you hit +9 and now can get -4.5, as I think Alabama wins by a TD.

If it's 70% of the money over the last two weeks, obviously it's smart to wait on the number to keep going down if you like Bama.

Good value on LSU ML all week too if you like them. Like what has been discussed earlier on Twitter, this year, taking the points and the ML for the dog has been really profitable in games with single score lines. If you're getting 2 bets on LSU for every 1 bet on Bama, that'll skew the percentage.

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(11-02-2011 11:35 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Adding to this point and another point. Great point about Sharp playing Non-Marquee Games, but you have once against Todd Fuhrman, Chad Millman and others posting on Twitter alot of marquee games that Sharps have hit.

Another Question, what about the NFL. arent they basically all marquee games?

NFL's a different beast. NFL is almost all about the number. In college, it's not as important. Don't take that the wrong way. The number is obviously important, but with such talent divides and coaching gaps, the games aren't lined near as tight as the NFL.

Sharps like getting chalk. I would venture to say that 60/40 or even 65/35 are dogs over favorites for sharps, both CFB and NFL.

I think NFL is more psychological for sharps. They try to enter the minds of the players. Case in point: I like the Redskins this week. SF going east after beating a bad Browns team. Washington played like shit last week, Shanahan was shut out for the first time as a head coach. Are they a better team than SF? Hell no.

But, at 6-1, SF basically only has to win 3 more games to win that division. Washington wants to snap a losing streak and has an outside shot at being in wild card contention (we know they don't, but they probably think they do). SF is ripe to take a week off.

Well within reason to take WSH at +4.5 once the public piles on SF. Sharps hit the opening SF number under 3 and then some might buy back WSH at 4.5 or even just wait until it climbs that high to make any play on that game.


The reason that Fuhrman and Millman tweet about sharps on marquee games is because the majority of their followers are squares. It's solely about grabbing attention. I don't think squares care about a sharp going 3-0 in the Sun Belt. Unless they can watch the game on TV, they don't want to bet it.

Most bettors don't care that there's been a 6 point line swing on the Ball State-Eastern Michigan game. Clearly, sharp money has drilled EMU. It looks like a pretty solid play. A potentially profitable play, especially had you gotten on EMU as a dog. But, it won't even be a blip on the radar with Bama-LSU.

Want to see a sharp line movement? How about Hawaii opening -9 against Utah State and now just -3.5? Squares will have no clue about it and take Hawaii on Saturday night at -4 excited that they got good value. Meanwhile, Hawaii could lose by 2 scores and all the early week signs would have pointed to it.

[jimmysingh9]

I totally agree about your points about games like EMich or Hawaii. 100% agree.

As for the 70%. I think I questioned it the wrong. When someone posts 70% of money is Team A, he is usually going to sbrodds,donbest, sportsoptions,sportsinsights and looking at betting percentage. Now they will look at the simple stat that 70% of money is on Team A, but the line hasnt moved, so sharp money has to be on Team B. I dont think that is necessarily the case, but that is what is percieved by the public.

Sites like the ones mentioned above are showing bets as a whole. they wont say this much money came in on LSU +9, then this much money came in on LSU +7 and so on and so on and that makes me render these sites useless, because there is a lack of information out there. Alot of people out there use those sites.

Because like you stated before and BTB has stated. A Sharp may like LSU +9 and bet on them but may not like LSU +6.5 and would actually bet Alabama -6.5. depends on the number available and I dont believe unless you have access like you have to sharps, that you will not be able to find that information out.

[Skating Tripods]

(11-02-2011 01:42 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  As for the 70%. I think I questioned it the wrong. When someone posts 70% of money is Team A, he is usually going to sbrodds,donbest, sportsoptions,sportsinsights and looking at betting percentage. Now they will look at the simple stat that 70% of money is on Team A, but the line hasnt moved, so sharp money has to be on Team B. I dont think that is necessarily the case, but that is what is percieved by the public.

Sites like the ones mentioned above are showing bets as a whole. they wont say this much money came in on LSU +9, then this much money came in on LSU +7 and so on and so on and that makes me render these sites useless, because there is a lack of information out there. Alot of people out there use those sites.

I see what you're saying. Everybody has an agenda. You have to decipher who is telling the truth. What if Colin Cowherd is announcing his picks the opposite of what he really likes to try and get a better number. Y'know, since he moves lines and all.

I can't imagine that those tracking sites update the way they say they do. And if you pay for it thinking it's real-time, you're a sucker.

Quote:Because like you stated before and BTB has stated. A Sharp may like LSU +9 and bet on them but may not like LSU +6.5 and would actually bet Alabama -6.5. depends on the number available and I dont believe unless you have access like you have to sharps, that you will not be able to find that information out.

That was always one of my issues with Millman's sharp/square tweet. Sharps liked Oklahoma State +11, they don't like them as much at 9.5. The problem with following that is he's getting his information fed by his regular contacts who bet early in the week. That's why following any kind of percentage trend can get you in trouble.

It's also why I like to bet later in the week. I can see where a line has settled and make a determination on my own. I'm probably getting the worst of the number, but, if a team was going to cover 10, they should be good enough to cover 12.5.

Line moves between key numbers help. And yes, I will hit a 6 on Thursday before it goes to 7 on Saturday. But, overall, I'll sacrifice a point or two to do more research into my pick and know more details on an injury. Everybody knows NFL injuries. College ones can come out very, very late sometimes.