Sharps

[Beyond the Bets]

Congrats, Jimmy & Skating. You have been awarded free parlays as part of BTB's all-new comp program. You will be notified via PM for your plays later this week.

HOORAY!

[jimmysingh9]

I think where I originally came up with the thread was when I was doing my research of games and analysis, in the back of my head, I am thinking what is the line movement of this game, is this the sharp side. I strongly believe alot of people are doing this and it is screwing up our own analysis.

I think sports betting in the end comes down to any other profession. If you have skill at your trade, you should be able to be profitable at it. If you know your sports, can handicap, look at numbers/trends and win, you dont need to worry about sharp action and other stuff. Sure, looking at other cappers opinions do help, but you have to get through that intial stage and find people you trust and not just website numbers.

thats why i love this site, we talk about sports betting information, not just random plays thrown out there. I dont think once so far I have read about someone being hot or someone going 50-0 or 0-50. We just talk sports betting.

The one thing I learned here that on top of handicapping skill is you need betting skills, which includes having more than one book, finding the best number, getting good numbers early. These are things that I thought of but never realized the full importance of them. Not all of us can do this. I cannot even do this fully because I am not a full-time bettor, but its great things to try to practice when you can

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(11-02-2011 02:14 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Congrats, Jimmy & Skating. You have been awarded free parlays as part of BTB's all-new comp program. You will be notified via PM for your plays later this week.

HOORAY!

sweet. this time i'll try to not go 0 fer on my free parlay lol. ALL SHARP BETTING j/k

[Skating Tripods]

(11-02-2011 02:14 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Congrats, Jimmy & Skating. You have been awarded free parlays as part of BTB's all-new comp program. You will be notified via PM for your plays later this week.

HOORAY!

Complimentary nights at Caesars Windsor for vacation the last few days and now this?! I feel like a high roller.

[Beyond the Bets]

(11-02-2011 02:15 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  The one thing I learned here that on top of handicapping skill is you need betting skills, which includes having more than one book, finding the best number, getting good numbers early.

I don't currently promote Bodog because I'm waiting to ensure that their new brand is strong and reliable, but I anticipate that I'll be recommending them by the end of the calendar year or early 2012.

Bodog is definitely a book worth having. Their lines are almost always a half-point or even a full point off market price and is a great out for those of you that like to bet dogs.

[Skating Tripods]

(11-02-2011 02:15 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I think where I originally came up with the thread was when I was doing my research of games and analysis, in the back of my head, I am thinking what is the line movement of this game, is this the sharp side. I strongly believe alot of people are doing this and it is screwing up our own analysis.

I think that recognizing the sharp side helps because you can get a better number at any point during the week. Sharps aren't going to unload the clip on the opening number. They'll dictate where it goes, but some will lay 10 dimes to throw 20 on it on Tuesday when it has passed a key number.

I identify the sharp side and then see if I agree with it. I look through my notes, I look through team reports, I look at certain key stats and I take into account how each team's key players are playing. Is the QB playing with confidence? Is he in danger of losing his job? If the RB has had 30 carries each of the last two weeks, can I rely on him again this week?

The sharp side should kickstart your analysis. Let's be honest, results this year or last year or whatever, these guys still do this for a living. Which means somewhere along the line, they were consistently profitable. Everybody hits bad luck. These guys haven't hit enough to stop betting professionally. More often than not, they're right. Even if it's only 55% of the time, they're right. They're right in interpreting the direction of a number. Just because you analyze a game spot on doesn't mean it'll happen your way. Too much shit can go wrong.

Quote:I think sports betting in the end comes down to any other profession. If you have skill at your trade, you should be able to be profitable at it. If you know your sports, can handicap, look at numbers/trends and win, you dont need to worry about sharp action and other stuff. Sure, looking at other cappers opinions do help, but you have to get through that intial stage and find people you trust and not just website numbers.

But how do you enhance your skills? Find something that works? The same way of approaching a game won't always work.

Starting out in handicapping is very hard. I like to remind everybody that you learn something new with every bet you make. Maybe you overvalued a team based on last week. Maybe you neglected a key injury. Maybe you took 7.5 instead of 6.5. Maybe you listened to your gut instead of the facts or vice versa.

It's a feel thing. You have to find what's comfortable for you. That's why the sharp consensus means a lot. ALL of these guys have different methodology. But, if the majority agree from all sorts of different angles, it'd be ignorant to sweep that under the rug.

Quote:thats why i love this site, we talk about sports betting information, not just random plays thrown out there. I dont think once so far I have read about someone being hot or someone going 50-0 or 0-50. We just talk sports betting.

It's a complex science. It really is. That's what I love about it. It pisses me off to no end when I struggle, but I always look for the reason why. The week I went 1-9-1, I had analyzed some games correctly and had bad luck. I was way off on some. I had a couple garbage backdoors/late scores. I easily could have had a break even day. It was up to me to figure out why. I did. Had a 9-5 week the next. Then had all sorts of bad misreads last week.

It's a challenge. It's what makes it fun. I'd love to do it for a living, not that my circulatory system could handle it, but I never will.

I'll talk about it like I do, though.

There are times where I feel like I'm the bankroll and a couple key points of emphasis away from being really profitable at this. Then I'll have a bad week and see that I have a lot to learn.

[jimmysingh9]

(11-02-2011 02:33 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  [quote='jimmysingh9' pid='5228' dateline='1320261320']


There are times where I feel like I'm the bankroll and a couple key points of emphasis away from being really profitable at this. Then I'll have a bad week and see that I have a lot to learn.

THIS