Screw You Guys, I'll Back Strasburg

[mount187]

I'm not going to argue that the Nats should regularly be -250 favorites every time Strasburg pitches, but it's interesting to hear people refer to a guy with a 2.35 career MLB ERA as overrated / overvalued; his PECOTA forcast ERA is 2.38 and his FRA (similar to xFIP) is 2.56. I realize it's a small sample size, but in 23 career starts, he has 154 K's and only 29 BB's. His WHIP is sub-1.00. I see the points about him not going deep into games, and that's completely valid, but if I'm looking at this right, in his 23 MLB starts he's only given up more than 3 ER's once. I know we get turned against players that constantly get lauded for how great they are, but up to this point in his career, it's hard to argue that Strasburg hasn't lived up to the hype.

Again, I wouldn't consistently back him at -250, but against the AA team that HOU is running out there, I thought it was a valid price.

[Beyond the Bets]

If you think Strasburg vs. the Astros would win 72 percent over time, then consistently taking him at -250 is a good bet.

[RyanParrill]

(04-17-2012 10:15 AM)mount187 Wrote:  I'm not going to argue that the Nats should regularly be -250 favorites every time Strasburg pitches, but it's interesting to hear people refer to a guy with a 2.35 career MLB ERA as overrated / overvalued; his PECOTA forcast ERA is 2.38 and his FRA (similar to xFIP) is 2.56. I realize it's a small sample size, but in 23 career starts, he has 154 K's and only 29 BB's. His WHIP is sub-1.00. I see the points about him not going deep into games, and that's completely valid, but if I'm looking at this right, in his 23 MLB starts he's only given up more than 3 ER's once. I know we get turned against players that constantly get lauded for how great they are, but up to this point in his career, it's hard to argue that Strasburg hasn't lived up to the hype.

Again, I wouldn't consistently back him at -250, but against the AA team that HOU is running out there, I thought it was a valid price.

As you mentioned, it has been his inability to go deep into games. When betting baseball, people focus on the starting pitcher. Now, this discussion we're able to look past that a little because we have the statistics to show it. But as you said, even you wouldn't back Strasburg at -250 consistently.

And be honest, is it really hard to argue Strasburg hasn't lived up to the hype? He did just log his 100th inning, in his 3rd season. The stats say 'Wait and see', but they don't say 'Lived up to the hype'.

With that, though, great win last night. You cashed and I wasn't on the opposite side

[mount187]

(04-17-2012 10:19 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  If you think Strasburg vs. the Astros would win 72 percent over time, then consistently taking him at -250 is a good bet.

We had him projected -350 yesterday; then late last night I did a stat update (after the game), and did a "what if" check ... moved to -369. There is no such thing as a lock, especially in baseball, but that matchup is a total mismatch in favor of the Nats.

---

@RyanParrill: If someone like Mike Leake had those same stats, and had missed a season with Tommy John, we'd probably be falling over ourselves to talk about how amazing the start to his career has been. Maybe I just enjoy cheering for super-stars more than most people.

[ScottKimberly]

(04-17-2012 10:24 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  As you mentioned, it has been his inability to go deep into games.

I'm just going to start betting the First5 Under. The small sample size makes me hesitate, but watching this guy pitch--- he is on another level.

[ChiefZilla]

(04-17-2012 10:25 AM)mount187 Wrote:  Maybe I just enjoy cheering for super-stars more than most people.

You'll probably be cheering for Lebron and the Heat in the NBA playoffs, too.

[Skating Tripods]

Meh. When Strasburg was done, it was a 2-2 game. He had nothing to do with the four-spot that the Nats put up in the 6th. Weiland got wild with 2 outs in the 6th. Strasburg should have left the game with a no-decision.

Game just as easily could have gone the other way.

[mount187]

(04-17-2012 02:56 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Meh. When Strasburg was done, it was a 2-2 game. He had nothing to do with the four-spot that the Nats put up in the 6th. Weiland got wild with 2 outs in the 6th. Strasburg should have left the game with a no-decision.

Game just as easily could have gone the other way.