Saturday College Hoops

[jimmysingh9]

gonna start a Saturday Thread early.


Two plays gonna be in once the lines comes out at 5dimes.

Duke -1(in that area), I see that people are betting UNC here but I don't buy it. I bet UNC in the first one and the one thing that scared me was how they played defense against Duke. We have talked about going under screens because of the lack of depth for UNC and if they do this again, Duke wins going away. I will take my chances with UNC playing like that because of the point talked about with UNC not having much of a choice because they cant afford to get Henson or Zeller in foul trouble. Only think stopping them would be Duke shooting ice cold.


Marquette -4

Golden Eagles finally coming off a loss and I like for them to bounce back in a big way. Georgetown is finally on the road against a good opponent. No more cupcakes or injury riddled squads to play with.

[Kballa41]

Is Marquette locked into the double bye? Might not have anyhting to play for.

[RickRude]

(03-02-2012 05:38 PM)Kballa41 Wrote:  Is Marquette locked into the double bye? Might not have anyhting to play for.

Yes they are. There could be a major 4 way tie for second at 13-5, but USF would be the team left out in that scenario seeing as they lost to ND, Gtown, and Marquette. It's Marquette senior day for Johnson-Odom and Crowder so I expect them to be pumped. Also Marquette blew a huge lead to Gtown the first time around and I could see some slight revenge factor in play.

also like Marquette giving the 4.

[iKnowNothing]

I've bet against 4 teams on their senior day this year and lost each one. Not happening again. These guys can't come out slow on their senior day right? (They probably still will)

[Yossarian]

(03-02-2012 03:36 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  gonna start a Saturday Thread early.


Two plays gonna be in once the lines comes out at 5dimes.

Duke -1(in that area), I see that people are betting UNC here but I don't buy it. I bet UNC in the first one and the one thing that scared me was how they played defense against Duke. We have talked about going under screens because of the lack of depth for UNC and if they do this again, Duke wins going away. I will take my chances with UNC playing like that because of the point talked about with UNC not having much of a choice because they cant afford to get Henson or Zeller in foul trouble. Only think stopping them would be Duke shooting ice cold.


Marquette -4

Golden Eagles finally coming off a loss and I like for them to bounce back in a big way. Georgetown is finally on the road against a good opponent. No more cupcakes or injury riddled squads to play with.

Somewhat general question but do you prefer 5Dimes to Betonline and if so, just wondering why? Overall I definitely do prefer 5Dimes, but Betonline has the advantage of releasing lines first, and you could actually get Duke +1 right now (my reason for asking) rather than wait for 5Dimes to release.

[arzoman]

I like Marquette as well. I lost a sizable amount when they face planted against Cincy, but I also had them when they won at UCONN and they're definitely a great team. My book has them at -5 which stinks. I'll probably wait until tomorrow to see if that lines drops a bit.

I see Washington +4 1/2 (+165) at UCLA. HUGE game here for WU, as they clinch the PAC 12 outright with a win and will have the #1 seed in Pac 12 tourney. If they lose and CAL beats Stanford in Berkeley on Sunday, they will share the title with the CAL, but they will lose the #1 seed to the Bears by virtue of their win in Washington. As far as motivation goes, you can't get any bigger than this. Also there's that SI article...although I suppose that could be a motivator for the Bruins.

[SkyBlues42]

I was 100% ready to make a play on Xavier. I think they step up with their NCAA Tournament hopes on the line. Even though they probably won't get in soley based on a win over Charlotte, it would make things slightly easier.

But with the line at Xavier -11.. I'm thinking the play is on Charlotte. What do you guys think?

Seems like that line is way too high given how the Musketeers have been playing.

[arzoman]

I posted previously that I liked Marquette, but with not a ton to play for, I'm layin off.

I do see three games that I like. One I go BIG. One I go medium. One I will take moneyline.

BIG...
South Florida -2 at home vs. West Virginia. I don't know what the deal is here, and maybe I'm missing something, but South Florida is for real this year. They're 12-5 in the Big East, have played well on the road and even better at home where they've only lost three times all year, two of those losses in November (by 2 and by 4 points respectively) and their last loss came in December (Uconn by 3). West Virginia is struggling having lost seven of ten games, South Fla has won seven of nine. I'm assuming when I wake up Sat morning, the line will have moved to 4 points.

Medium...
Cincinnati -2 vs. Villanova. I've seen 'nova a few times this year and they just look AWFUL. Their season is a total wash, and I think they've completely quit. They blew a huge lead to Notre Dame a couple weeks ago and lost (at home). Then they followed that up by blowing another 20 point first half lead to a Uconn team who didn't seem like they were trying, and they lost again (at home). Cincinnati looked pretty freggin' good beating up Marquette a couple days ago. I was on the wrong end of that one, and Cincy just had it all going. Cincy plays ok on the road, having beaten three ranked teams (Uconn, Georgetown, Pitt) which is no easy feat. Cincy is 11-6 in the East while nova is 5-12.

Moneyline...
Tulsa +4 +160 at home Vs. Memphis.
Don't have much to say about this one other than only two games separate these teams in Conference USA, and Tulsa has looked pretty decent lately. Also for what it's worth, at vegasinsider.com, it appears the line opened at 4 and in the last hour got bet down to 3.5. Either way I think Tulsa wins.

I had a pretty strong day today. Akron money line was a big one for me, and the Dons of USF did me well too. Who knows, maybe I stay hot through the weekend??

[iKnowNothing]

I like a lot of the games mentioned here already as well as a bunch more:

Marquette has Senior Day and play really well at home. Georgetown isn't a good road team. I'm in. At -4.5 now.

I like the South Florida pick. I think they've lost one conference game at home this season. Good value at -2.

LOVE Washington at +5.5. I have them winning outright and love the +190 ML.

I like St. Louis -5. They're a pretty good team. Already beat Duquesne by 20+ at home.

Baylor at +2 intrigued me. They looked good on their Senior Night and getting a team like that with points is a possible play for me.

The Duke-UNC game is tough for me. All my research and trends are pointing to UNC including a big revenge factor, but my gut is telling to pick Duke. I'll probably end up just sitting back and enjoying this one.

I like Long Beach -5.5. Should be around a 7-8 point win at the low end. I'm a fan of Long Beach, especially in conference games this year.

Call me crazy but I like the USC-Wazzu over 119. USC has been scoring more lately due to Byron Wesley and Wazzu should play better than they did against UCLA. I wouldn't throw the college fund on this but this seems too low for me.

La Tech +10 is a good play to me. Nevada isn't blowing anybody out and La Tech is a solid team. Wish I got it at 11.5.

Binghamton-Stony Brook line at 118 seems low to me. Don't know these teams too much other than Binghamton won 1 game all year then got an upset in the conference tourney but 120 should be the lowest it goes.


I'll probably throw together some of these on a parlay and a teaser. I know I mentioned a lot of games here. My favorites are Washington, South Florida, St. Louis and Long Beach. Marquette, La Tech and the 2 overs are solid plays to me though too. I like to diversify however in case a team has a bad game and think 75% win here shouldn't be out of the question.

[jimmysingh9]

(03-02-2012 09:22 PM)Yossarian Wrote:  

(03-02-2012 03:36 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  gonna start a Saturday Thread early.


Two plays gonna be in once the lines comes out at 5dimes.

Duke -1(in that area), I see that people are betting UNC here but I don't buy it. I bet UNC in the first one and the one thing that scared me was how they played defense against Duke. We have talked about going under screens because of the lack of depth for UNC and if they do this again, Duke wins going away. I will take my chances with UNC playing like that because of the point talked about with UNC not having much of a choice because they cant afford to get Henson or Zeller in foul trouble. Only think stopping them would be Duke shooting ice cold.


Marquette -4

Golden Eagles finally coming off a loss and I like for them to bounce back in a big way. Georgetown is finally on the road against a good opponent. No more cupcakes or injury riddled squads to play with.

Somewhat general question but do you prefer 5Dimes to Betonline and if so, just wondering why? Overall I definitely do prefer 5Dimes, but Betonline has the advantage of releasing lines first, and you could actually get Duke +1 right now (my reason for asking) rather than wait for 5Dimes to release.

Hey yoss,

I only prefer 5dimes because it is my home sportsbook to me and the place where I trust my money the most. I feel comfortable holding the majority of my cash there. That is the only reason.

It's totally fine to be betting the early line at BetOnline. Alot of the guys here play there and there seems to be no problem. I only play at 2 books Pinnacle and 5dimes with the majority of my funds at 5dimes. But that was the only reason I was saying I was waiting for 5dimes.

The Duke line is +2 now, so there wasnt much advantage but if you felt like you were getting advantage with BetOnline's early lines when 5dimes havent posted them yet, then by all means, bet it.

Good Luck





SkyBlues,

that Xavier line is tough. Charlotte does have some scorers in Braswell and Barnett, so they definately have a chance to score with Xavier. Char just came of a 9 point home loss to Duquense but the Dukes were shooting well and every time Charlotte got close, they would hit a big 3.

hard to play Xavier, they SHOULD be beating up on teams but Holloway dissapears at times and its just hard to read. I would say stay away just on the fact that Xavier should be blowing some A-10 teams out of the water but just dont.

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(03-03-2012 03:11 AM)arzoman Wrote:  I posted previously that I liked Marquette, but with not a ton to play for, I'm layin off.

I do see three games that I like. One I go BIG. One I go medium. One I will take moneyline.

BIG...
South Florida -2 at home vs. West Virginia. I don't know what the deal is here, and maybe I'm missing something, but South Florida is for real this year. They're 12-5 in the Big East, have played well on the road and even better at home where they've only lost three times all year, two of those losses in November (by 2 and by 4 points respectively) and their last loss came in December (Uconn by 3). West Virginia is struggling having lost seven of ten games, South Fla has won seven of nine. I'm assuming when I wake up Sat morning, the line will have moved to 4 points.

Medium...
Cincinnati -2 vs. Villanova. I've seen 'nova a few times this year and they just look AWFUL. Their season is a total wash, and I think they've completely quit. They blew a huge lead to Notre Dame a couple weeks ago and lost (at home). Then they followed that up by blowing another 20 point first half lead to a Uconn team who didn't seem like they were trying, and they lost again (at home). Cincinnati looked pretty freggin' good beating up Marquette a couple days ago. I was on the wrong end of that one, and Cincy just had it all going. Cincy plays ok on the road, having beaten three ranked teams (Uconn, Georgetown, Pitt) which is no easy feat. Cincy is 11-6 in the East while nova is 5-12.

Moneyline...
Tulsa +4 +160 at home Vs. Memphis.
Don't have much to say about this one other than only two games separate these teams in Conference USA, and Tulsa has looked pretty decent lately. Also for what it's worth, at vegasinsider.com, it appears the line opened at 4 and in the last hour got bet down to 3.5. Either way I think Tulsa wins.

I had a pretty strong day today. Akron money line was a big one for me, and the Dons of USF did me well too. Who knows, maybe I stay hot through the weekend??

good stuff lately Arzo, keep posting.

I dont have much to add to your picks. I personally dont take Cincy away from home. I don't trust them. They are a great home team because they hit the 3 more consistently there but Villanova just looks bad and I'm not sure how healthy Wayns is.

I Can't read USF, they are done really well in the Big East and the season is almost done, so you cannot discount them at all. The line is weird to me as well with them only being short faves to a struggling WV team. it looks good on paper.

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Still play Marquette -4 and Duke +2. They are the two main plays for me right now. Stil waiting on some conference tourney lines to be posted.


play on LaSalle -3. The line looks short to me over the Bonnies at home. LaSalle played well at home all year except the last two games. They lost to the 2 best teams in the conference in Temple and St Louis, now they go back to playing middle of the pack A-10 opponent with St Bonaventure. During that 7 game home win streak for LaSalle their smallest margin of victory was 7 points. gladly take the -3

Play on UCF -4.5. beat UAB this year on the road already and are 9-1 at home in the last 10. beating some good teams as well in Memphis and Old Dominion. think they should pull away from this one.


2 Big East Dogs here. St Johns +8. Rutgers shouldnt be favoured by 8 over anyone really. St John's can play with teams. They aren't good enough to win games consistently but Rutgers struggles at times to score and rely more on defense. St John's has a couple of players that can light it up and I can see this one staying close.

DePaul +5. This is more of a hunch but doing like Seton Hall being 5 point favourites on the road over anyone in the Big East as well. I have taken DePaul to cover at home against much better teams than Seton Hall and they have been close or covering in most of them. taking that spot here again.
CLEVELAND MELVIN LETS DO THIS! thats for you BTB lol

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I also like New Mexico -14.5. I dont ever take big spreads but I cannot see this one being close. I think UNM opens it up to 20+ and it stays around there.

Also like Oregon ST -4.5 over Colorado. Same spot as Oregon/Colorado on Thursday. Colorado doesnt play well outside of their building and Oregon St puts up ALOT of points at home, so if Colorado isnt on fire, I think Oregon St opens this one up. Colorado was up 9 on Oregon and still ended up losing and not covering. I don't see them opening up at hot and going down early and this being an easy cover.

Oregon St averages 83 points per game at home. SO you better score with them to keep this one close

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Locking in New Mexico St -3.5 over Fresno St. LOVE NEW MEXICO ST as a team. Fresno St is a bad team. just lost at home to La Tech where they weren't really in it. New Mexico St just came off their biggest game of the year so letdown might happen, They are locked in to the 2 seed in the conference tourney, but they are just too good for Fresno.

Alot of plays here 10 in total. Also took TCU +2 over San Diego St. just a smaller play.

[Beyond the Bets]

[arzoman]

Wow, Memphis is destroying Tulsa! I'm glad that was my "medium" bet (first bet of a two team parlay). My big one, South Florida, is down 1 with 10 mins to play. Very frustrating game so far, as they were up four with the ball three times. First two times turnovers (one of them a bad call), last possession they missed three easy layups. I have one of the those bad feelings about this one as they may win, but I don't see it being by the 3 points I need.

So now my next play becomes crucial. I loved Cincy last night as you guys know, and they're starting in 30 mins and are at -1 1/2. Should I stick with my original Cincy play? Or should I take Washington money line? I really like Washington to win, as the Bruins are just bad this year. Problem is I'm a big CAL fan, and I need Washington to lose for the Bears to have a shot at the conference title. I just have one of those feelings that the Cal-Stanford game will mean something tomorrow. But then again, my "feelings" haven't necessarily been accurate lately!!

I think I'll take Washington. They've just won all the games they were supposed to win this year, and despite what the odds makers say, they are supposed to win this game. Maybe South Florida will surprise me, and in that case I'll stick with Cincy. I really do think they'll beat Nova.

So that's where I'm at! Good luck to you guys!

[iKnowNothing]

(03-03-2012 01:42 PM)arzoman Wrote:  I really like Washington to win, as the Bruins are just bad this year. Problem is I'm a big CAL fan, and I need Washington to lose for the Bears to have a shot at the conference title.

I personally would find this to be a win-win. Either you get some money or Cal gets a shot to win the Pac-12 regular season crown after falling apart against Colorado (even though the regular season crown means absolutely nothing)

[SkyBlues42]

(03-03-2012 02:56 PM)iKnowNothing Wrote:  I personally would find this to be a win-win. Either you get some money or Cal gets a shot to win the Pac-12 regular season crown after falling apart against Colorado (even though the regular season crown means absolutely nothing)

Good point. Win $ if Washington wins. Opens the door for Cal if they lose. "Happiness" hedge?

[iKnowNothing]

(03-03-2012 02:58 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  

(03-03-2012 02:56 PM)iKnowNothing Wrote:  I personally would find this to be a win-win. Either you get some money or Cal gets a shot to win the Pac-12 regular season crown after falling apart against Colorado (even though the regular season crown means absolutely nothing)

Good point. Win $ if Washington wins. Opens the door for Cal if they lose. "Happiness" hedge?

I always do a small happiness hedge when my teams are in big games. I win free "drown your sorrows" beer if my team loses or my team wins and I'll gladly pay $20 for that

[SkyBlues42]

Or you can spend $15-20 on a cheap 30-rack of beer and drown your sorrows with Washington win / celebrate with a Washignton loss

[iKnowNothing]

Unreal end to the Washington-UCLA game. So unnecessary.

[SkyBlues42]

Tough beat for Washington backers.. down 4 with 3 seconds left.. turnover.. foul with 1 sec left.. UCLA hits both free throws to cover the spread. Ouch.

[arzoman]

Thanks for the responses. Yup, it was a win-win (although I honestly would have rather won the bet).

I ended up putting half bank roll on Cincy 1 1/2 other half on Washington.

Got REAL lucky with Cincy. They went to free throw line up 3 with 9 secs left. Missed first made second.
Nova puts up two 3's, either one would have sunk me. Luckily they missed both and I cover.

Washington was winning the ENTIRE game! Up 8 a couple times. They end up losing...and it makes me happy that I didn't take the +5, as that was a brutal cover by UCLA. Washington has ball down 4 with 3 secs left. Full court heave and out of bounds with 3 secs left. UCLA to inbound under Washington's basket. Game is over right? Washington down four with 3 secs left and no time outs. What do they do? Of course. Foul. UCLA hits both, win by six. Thank god i was on money line.

Liking Duke tonight. Gotta go with the home team.

[jimmysingh9]

Putting up some more plays tonight.

Iowa St -2 over Baylor.

I think the 3 rain tonight here and Iowa St actually opens up Baylor and maybe a double digit win here. I watched the first matchup and had Iowa St there and Baylor played well on their home court and made alot of not good shots. 19 foot jumpers, long 3's etc. Iowa St didnt shoot well from 3, Royce White was turning the ball over like crazy.

I think it will even out there with Iowa St hitting more 3's and Baylor not being as hot with their long range jumpers tonight.

plus Scott Drew is an idiot.