Round Robin Parlays

[mount187]

I had a question about this in another thread, but it never really got a response.

Anyone have any facts/opinions about when (if ever) it's a good time to use the round-robin option for a parlay?

For instance. If you have 4-5 heavy M/L favorite plays that you feel really good about and want to parlay. Should you just parlay them together if you're willing to take that risk, or is it a good idea to take the round-robin action as well?

Thanks in advance.

[Beyond the Bets]

I used to do these on occasion but rarely do anymore. If you've got, for instance, a four-team round robin, you better hit three of them. Otherwise, you're going to take a hit.

I would never do one in baseball but would consider it in football, particularly when I feel very strongly about a certain set of games. But overall, my guess is that you'll lose over time if you're playing them.

[lowphi]

If you are a good handicapper, playing round robins of 2 or 3 team is to your advantage.
For example: if you can hit 54% ATS over a decent sample size. Your return on risk would be as follows.
Straights - 3%
2TRR - 4.9%
3TRR - 10%
The concept of "you better hit 3 of them" is really short term thinking. Sure you will have a lot of 1-3, 2-2 weeks, the occasional 0-4 week, but if you can hit 54% or greater... you will have 3-1 weeks and 4-0 weeks as well. Over the course of a season those will add up to a larger profit then if you just played straights. Don Peszynski's "Win More, Lose Less", breaks all of this down with the proper math and examples round robins, parlays, teasers, point buying, etc. IMO best book ever on NFL betting.
Another reason you'd play round-robins is too get around low limits.
And if you're parlaying big ML favs, remember that if you play 4favs -350 each in parlay. You need to hit more or less 78% of the time to break even. Not the most +EV play. Nice site the way BTB.

[Beyond the Bets]

Welcome to the board, lowphi.

Keep in mind that Mount187 is brand new to betting. As in, he basically has never done this before. With that in mind, I think he should steer clear of anything other than straight bets for the time being, at least until he builds up his confidence and, hopefully, his bank roll.

[mount187]

(09-23-2011 11:54 AM)lowphi Wrote:  If you are a good handicapper, playing round robins of 2 or 3 team is to your advantage.
For example: if you can hit 54% ATS over a decent sample size. Your return on risk would be as follows.
Straights - 3%
2TRR - 4.9%
3TRR - 10%
The concept of "you better hit 3 of them" is really short term thinking. Sure you will have a lot of 1-3, 2-2 weeks, the occasional 0-4 week, but if you can hit 54% or greater... you will have 3-1 weeks and 4-0 weeks as well. Over the course of a season those will add up to a larger profit then if you just played straights. Don Peszynski's "Win More, Lose Less", breaks all of this down with the proper math and examples round robins, parlays, teasers, point buying, etc. IMO best book ever on NFL betting.
Another reason you'd play round-robins is too get around low limits.
And if you're parlaying big ML favs, remember that if you play 4favs -350 each in parlay. You need to hit more or less 78% of the time to break even. Not the most +EV play. Nice site the way BTB.

So you're saying there is some value if you're round-robin parlaying ATS plays together (and know what you're doing), but that heavy M/L round-robins are too risky, right? Just want to make sure I understood that correctly.

[lowphi]

Yeah, that's the gist of it.

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(09-23-2011 11:57 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Welcome to the board, lowphi.

Keep in mind that Mount187 is brand new to betting. As in, he basically has never done this before. With that in mind, I think he should steer clear of anything other than straight bets for the time being, at least until he builds up his confidence and, hopefully, his bank roll.

Sorry, I wasn't aware of the situation, and hope it didn't seem like I was pushing him to RR his plays. Just wanted to show for the .01% that are long term winners there is some value, and that parlaying Big ML favs the majority of the time is a horrible play.
I'll focus on my audience more in the future if I post.

[kreatture]

(09-23-2011 02:09 PM)lowphi Wrote:  I'll focus on my audience more in the future if I post.

Not "if".. "when".

Don't mind BeyondTheBets "Big Daddy" attitude sometimes.. He's just trying to protect all of us in the end. Either that or we'll all part of some very cruel experiment he's engineered (flashback to the last contest)..

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-23-2011 02:09 PM)lowphi Wrote:  I'll focus on my audience more in the future if I post.

No, post! Please!

[@oconnellp]

(09-23-2011 10:23 AM)mount187 Wrote:  I had a question about this in another thread, but it never really got a response.

Anyone have any facts/opinions about when (if ever) it's a good time to use the round-robin option for a parlay?

For instance. If you have 4-5 heavy M/L favorite plays that you feel really good about and want to parlay. Should you just parlay them together if you're willing to take that risk, or is it a good idea to take the round-robin action as well?

Thanks in advance.

Mount, I stumbled accross this thread the other night about RR parlays vs normal parlays. It gets pretty in depth, and there's a lot of chest puffing back in forth between a few guys but i found it really interesting. These guys know their shit. I hope BTB doesnt mind me link-ing. I dont even know what site this is:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/6...rlays.html

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-24-2011 02:48 AM)@oconnellp Wrote:  I hope BTB doesnt mind me link-ing. I dont even know what site this is:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/6...rlays.html

Not a problem. Also, I like SBR.

[lowphi]

This is a good example of why someone might use RR's
BTB posted 6 "extra" game plays this week. Problem is most places won't let you get down for more $100 before game day (some not even that much). Say BTB's normal sized wager was $300 and he thought that he was a good capper at NCAA extra games. He could wait till game day to bet more, though the lines might move against. So what he could do is play either 15 2TP or 20 3TP or both.
This way he can bet an amount that makes the plays worth it to him...
If he were to play it in straights 0-6 is horrible 3-3 he's out juice 4-2 a tiny profit... anything more is a good day. Compare that to the RR 0-6 he is out just as much as if he were to play straights. 1-5 thru 3-3 he is down more than if he played straights. 4-2 he is up a little... but if he goes 5-1 or 6-0 he payout is much more than the straights.
Not saying this is how anyone should play all their bets... but in cases like the one above it is an option. Also, remember if you are a $100 player, you need to cut down the bet size for each RR play. Depending on the number plays, I would go as far as $10 a RR for every normal sized wager.
Sorry to be long winded... And, BTB real nice work on the extra plays 5/6 moved in your favor and 4/6 for two points or more.