Researching player props

[oddsok]

Today I was intrigued by one member of Twitter posting a play on Al Jefferson o19pts versus OKC.

Now I quite like player props; I feel like there might be a bit more of an edge to be had than say betting on a regular game as they're not as heavily bet by the average pundit.

So how would you research a player prop like this? Tempo? Rebounds allowed? Pts allowed to other teams' centres? I did a little bit of digging and this is what I came up with.

This season he is averaging 18.5ppg. He averages 22.75ppg off 2 days rest. 19.8ppg @ home. 9.8 rebounds at home.

This game has a reasonably high total (202) to begin with, so that would indicate an up-tempo, free flowing game.

This particular Twitter member suggested that Jefferson would be pissed he wasn't selected as an all star and so he would play a better game.

What do you guys think about this particular prop, and researching ones similar to this? I'd love to know where to find stats such as how many points and rebounds each team gives to players in certain positions. Are OKC weaker against centres, than they are against PGs?

[VincentValour]

Think there can be great value found in props like these. The problem is there are so many, it takes a long time to do the research to find an edge.

As for the Jefferson prop, think the number is about right. Typically Jefferson struggles against bigger stronger defenders. What is going for the over is that despite his struggles, the Jazz continue to feed him the rock. I think the research that would help is look at Al's points and attempts vs bigger defenders, games vs the Lakers and such. Do like the total angle you are going at, personally I think the game goes under, but still at 195 that's a lot of possessions going Jefferson's way.

[oddsok]

See, this is the kind of stuff that is invaluable; As I don't get to see a whole heap of games I don't know small intricacies such as what kind of size a team has and how they defend, and don't tend to think of that kind of stuff.

Going with that research: From 3 games vs the Lakers he's shot 15-50, which is atrocious at only 30%. The good news as you said is that he is right on his average for attempts at 16.6 in these games, but only averages 11pts. Plenty of scope for improvement.

[VincentValour]

(02-10-2012 10:11 PM)oddsok Wrote:  See, this is the kind of stuff that is invaluable; As I don't get to see a whole heap of games I don't know small intricacies such as what kind of size a team has and how they defend, and don't tend to think of that kind of stuff.

Going with that research: From 3 games vs the Lakers he's shot 15-50, which is atrocious at only 30%. The good news as you said is that he is right on his average for attempts at 16.6 in these games, but only averages 11pts. Plenty of scope for improvement.

Yeah for sure, that is what's so great about forum like this. I typically wouldn't know that either, but I'm a non biased Jazz fan in SLC. So the numbers/trends are a little bit more accessible locally.