Reasons you are taking the Pats

[blockm97]

I am not an expert. But the NYG feel like a lock next Sunday. Just curious what reasons people like the Patriots. I'm trying to think of a reason why I'd take the Pats yet I cannot come up with much beyond their QB advantage. Even that edge is small given how well Eli is playing.

NYG 37 Pats 21

[Beyond the Bets]

The 3-point underdog is a lock against belichick and Brady on revenge?

[hookbet]

Belichick with two weeks to prepare.

Not that any player needs any more motivation but I think these Patriots really want to send their owner Kraft out with a win after the year he has had with the passing of his wife. These players really like playing for him.

[victortrash]

(01-28-2012 10:35 PM)blockm97 Wrote:  But the NYG feel like a lock next Sunday

famous last words. I should know. I had to eat them quite a few times.

[mattrud]

Because the Patriots have beaten one team that finished with a winning record, a horrible road team on a botched field goal!

Seriously, I love the Giants. But calling it a "lock" with Brady/Belichick on the other side is crazy talk.

[Weebay]

If the super bowl was played today I would bet the gmen. They are hot but with an extra week to cool down and belichek and company with extra time to gameplan I am leaning towards the pats. I really think Brady will have the best game of his life and needs to. If you guys look at Brady's number since 07 in the playoffs with exception of Denver this year and Jacksonville in 07 I think you would be surprised to see how poorly he has played.

[Whiskeytown]

i think it the game will be decided by the non-storylines.

stuff like NE's Defense being pretty good against the run, and maybe not as horrible overall as their rep. or NE actually running the ball (which they were able to against Balt). going in, we're all talking Brady/Eli, the NYG front four, etc.... coming out, it might be the opposite.

[mount187]

(01-28-2012 10:35 PM)blockm97 Wrote:  NYG 37 Pats 21

I haven't looked, but I would think if you think the G'ants are going to score that much, you could easily get the over on their team-total, and not even mess w/ the game line.

[jimmysingh9]

I agree. No one has any reason to support the patriots. well legit.

What is the reason??? Tom Brady and Bill Bellichek??? YOU GUYS ARE BETTING ON NAMES!!! RING A BELL? LIKE BETTING ON NOTRE DAME OR DUKE OR UNC?

Weebay, what if Eli Manning has the game of his life, or Justin Tuck or Hakeem Nicks or Brandon Jacobs. I dont think hoping someone has the game of their life should be enough of a reason.

2 weeks to prepare? hmmmm you mean like that last super bowl the pats were in?

The Patriots have not played well against good teams, there 15-3 will hide that fact to the majority of people that will not look into it with any depth.

The Giants, who werent hot at that time, went into Foxboro and beat the Patriots and now on a neutral field, you want to say the Pats were -3.5 favourites over the Giants for what reason??????????????

I think the books put that # out believing that Brady and Co. would get alot of bets on them at under a FG and put out a # that would get enough Giants bets but everyone hit up the Giants all week apparently to the point where they had to drop the line under a key #.

If the books actually had a strong lean on the Pats, I dont think they would move that # under 3. I understand that it's the super bowl and its probably stupid for the books to take a stance on one side and its better to try to get equal money on both sides.


One last reason. How many times do you see a game where Brady gets roughed up and goes on the win that game?????? Brady looks amazing when he's clean in the pocket, but he looks awfully shaky at times when he's got pressure in his face.

[mattrud]

(01-29-2012 11:24 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I agree. No one has any reason to support the patriots. well legit.

What is the reason??? Tom Brady and Bill Bellichek??? YOU GUYS ARE BETTING ON NAMES!!! RING A BELL? LIKE BETTING ON NOTRE DAME OR DUKE OR UNC?

2 weeks to prepare? hmmmm you mean like that last super bowl the pats were in?

The Patriots have not played well against good teams, there 15-3 will hide that fact to the majority of people that will not look into it with any depth.

The Giants, who werent hot at that time, went into Foxboro and beat the Patriots and now on a neutral field, you want to say the Pats were -3.5 favourites over the Giants for what reason??????????????

I think the books put that # out believing that Brady and Co. would get alot of bets on them at under a FG and put out a # that would get enough Giants bets but everyone hit up the Giants all week apparently to the point where they had to drop the line under a key #.

If the books actually had a strong lean on the Pats, I dont think they would move that # under 3. I understand that it's the super bowl and its probably stupid for the books to take a stance on one side and its better to try to get equal money on both sides.

Couldn't agree more.

[jimmysingh9]

Oh I agree with Mattrud, this is by no means a lock, but I wouldn't put a cent on the Patriots. I did bet Giants +3.5, but by no means on the levels of the Ravens last week at +7.5.

[SkyBlues42]

(01-29-2012 11:24 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I agree. No one has any reason to support the patriots. well legit.

What is the reason??? Tom Brady and Bill Bellichek??? YOU GUYS ARE BETTING ON NAMES!!! RING A BELL? LIKE BETTING ON NOTRE DAME OR DUKE OR UNC?

I don't think everyone that is backing the Pats is betting solely on names. Yeah, the Patriots have two of the biggest names in the NFL -- Belichick and Brady -- but they've also made it to the Super Bowl. They didn't set their playoff schedule. What they did do, however, is go out and beat the Broncos and Ravens.

You can say that the Patriots only recorded a few, if any, marquee wins during the regular season, and you won't get an argument from me. But the Super Bowl is completely different.

Belichick has an extra week to prepare and if you think one team is a guaranteed 'Lock' (This doesn't apply to you, Jimmy) in this match up, then you are probably biased toward one side.

Having said that, you probably think I'm siding with the Patriots.

But like you guys, I think the Giants win the game

Just playing devils advocate. I'm sure (well, I hope) people aren't backing one side just because of a name. Like I said, the Patriots made it this far, so there's no reason to believe they don't have a chance as the favorite.

[KepowOb]

I've decided to stay away from this game... Well, from picking a team anyway. I agree that Pats haven't played many good teams, but it doesn't mean they can't beat a good team (they did win last week...). They're lack of playing against winning teams makes them hard to gauge, more than simply over-rated.

Their defence still worries me though. They gave up a ton of hards against some weak teams, and they don't have a ton of playmakers. They've looked improved the last two weeks, but they've faced some weaker offences so far. Eli is a much better QB than Flacco, and obviously way ahead of Tebow (and Eli has shown some 4th quarter magic of his own over the years). Belichick is great at using retread defencemen though, putting people in positions that maximise their strengths.

I think their will be more in game betting value than on the line right now, and I'm sure some can be found on props (which is just a question of figuring out some value there before others and a line move, like with the anthem length).

[blockm97]

I would give the "Belichick/2 weeks/revenge factor" more weight if he were going against a younger coach who had not been to the SB before. But Coughlin is a great coach as well. I'm not convinced the coaching edge is as large as some believe.

I cannot see the Pats consistently stopping the NYG. The difference between the two defenses is huge. You could debate who as the better offense.

[BigRick617]

REVENGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRADY to me is just one of those competitors that lives for the big moments and the moment couldn't get any bigger than getting another shot at the team the ruined there perfect season. i think one big difference in this game then the last superbowl they met in is that this time around the giants got expectations. its a lot easier to play when no one expects u to put up a fight let alone win.

[spanishredeye]

Would a valid reason be that Vegas got killed on the Giants last time around and won't let that happen again?

[DonFilet59]

Patriots -3 +105 and Giants +120 moneyline, Patriots will win by 1 or 2.

[SkyBlues42]

(01-30-2012 02:51 PM)DonFilet59 Wrote:  Patriots -3 +105 and Giants +120 moneyline, Patriots will win by 1 or 2.

If that's what you think, then why would you waste money on the Giants ML?

---

Also: it's pointless to take Pats -3 and Giants ML. I could see you doing Giants +3 and Pats ML.. but even that wouldn't be a great bet.

[DonFilet59]

That's what I'm saying, the Super Bowl is a sucker's bet either way. One bet I'm considering is Patriots margin of victory 1-4 +300

[SkyBlues42]

(01-30-2012 02:56 PM)DonFilet59 Wrote:  That's what I'm saying, the Super Bowl is a sucker's bet either way. One bet I'm considering is Patriots margin of victory 1-4 +300

Ah gotcha. Yeah that makes sense.