Rare NHL over/unders of 4.5

[Beyond the Bets]

No playoff game this year has seen a total of less than 5. That changes tonight with the Rangers-Capitals game.

Since the 2004-05 NHL lockout, there have been 24 playoff games featuring a total of 4.5. Of those games, 17 of them have gone over, a rate of 70.8 percent.

Many of the games have sailed way over the total. Nine of 24 had seven goals or more, and three games topped eight goals. The Rangers and Sabres once combined to score nine in a 2007 playoff game.

The average number of goals scored per game is 5.2 over the 24-game sample.

Keep in mind that six of New York’s 13 playoff games have had four goals or less, including three in this series.

Also worth noting: Since the over is usually juiced in games involving 4.5 totals, the necessary break-even point is probably closer to 60 percent than 52.38.

The over on tonight’s game is priced at -140.

[RickRude]

(05-12-2012 03:23 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  No playoff game this year has seen a total of less than 5. That changes tonight with the Rangers-Capitals game.

Since the 2004-05 NHL lockout, there have been 24 playoff games featuring a total of 4.5. Of those games, 17 of them have gone over, a rate of 70.8 percent.

Many of the games have sailed way over the total. Nine of 24 had seven goals or more, and three games topped eight goals. The Rangers and Sabres once combined to score nine in a 2007 playoff game.

The average number of goals scored per game is 5.2 over the 24-game sample.

Keep in mind that six of New York’s 13 playoff games have had four goals or less, including three in this series.

Also worth noting: Since the over is usually juiced in games involving 4.5 totals, the necessary break-even point is probably closer to 60 percent than 52.38.

The over on tonight’s game is priced at -140.

Kings/Blues Games 1 and 2 were 4.5 at my book. Wish I was around yesterday to break out this stat pre game. John Tortorella has coached 5 game 7s. Henrik Lundqvist has played 3 game 7s. All of those game 7 final scores...2-1.

[Beyond the Bets]

(05-13-2012 11:27 AM)RickRude Wrote:  

(05-12-2012 03:23 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  No playoff game this year has seen a total of less than 5. That changes tonight with the Rangers-Capitals game.

Since the 2004-05 NHL lockout, there have been 24 playoff games featuring a total of 4.5. Of those games, 17 of them have gone over, a rate of 70.8 percent.

Many of the games have sailed way over the total. Nine of 24 had seven goals or more, and three games topped eight goals. The Rangers and Sabres once combined to score nine in a 2007 playoff game.

The average number of goals scored per game is 5.2 over the 24-game sample.

Keep in mind that six of New York’s 13 playoff games have had four goals or less, including three in this series.

Also worth noting: Since the over is usually juiced in games involving 4.5 totals, the necessary break-even point is probably closer to 60 percent than 52.38.

The over on tonight’s game is priced at -140.

Kings/Blues Games 1 and 2 were 4.5 at my book. Wish I was around yesterday to break out this stat pre game. John Tortorella has coached 5 game 7s. Henrik Lundqvist has played 3 game 7s. All of those game 7 final scores...2-1.

Yeah, no way was I playing over on that NYR/WAS game yesterday.

[Huskers20]

What about today's 4.5 after yesterday's not hitting?

[RickRude]

(05-13-2012 12:24 PM)Huskers20 Wrote:  What about today's 4.5 after yesterday's not hitting?

I'm staying away. Game 1's are notoriously volatile in the NHL playoffs. There have been 60 goals scored in 12 game 1's these playoffs for an average of 5 a game. In the other 51 games (removing the huge outlier of Philly/Pitt) there have been 233 goals scored for an average of 4.56. There should be a feeling out process today, but it could easily be 2-2 late in the third or 1-0.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Would love to see those game ones fly over so they can get back to totals of 5.