Randomness in Sports

[SkyBlues42]

Wazzufan raised the question of whether or not hockey is random (in the So Money Nation), which is something I've had discussion about it the past. But not just with Hockey.

Here is a link to the thread and @So_Money's answer

So Money response to randomness in Hockey

What does everyone think about randomness in sports, or better yet, which sports do YOU feel are random?

Hockey, Soccer, Basketball, Baseball etc...

In my opinion, hockey could be the most random sport because it's such a fast paced game with shots coming from every angle. Deflections are bound to happen and there is nothing worse than losing a bet in a shootout.

Do your thoughts in relation to 'randomness' impact your betting habits, or is it overlooked?

[mount187]

I feel like, and I know someone else that's outspoken on this board about it, MLB is the most random. Teams that are dominant can come out an lay an egg any given night. A team could just as easily win five in a row as lose five in a row. The better teams are going to come out ahead in the long run, but on a night-to-night basis, it has to be the most frustratingly, coin-flippish sport.

[Beyond the Bets]

Sports like MLB and NHL can certainly appear random and to a large extent they are on a night-to-night basis. However, getting the best price isn't random — that's something very much in your control.

[lindetrain]

So Money pretty much took the words out of my mouth. Hockey and baseball are my two best sports, because with so many games, it's very easy to identify situations where teams will play with more/less effort and intensity. Outside of starting pitchers and goalies, which I do take into account to some extent, I cap purely situational in both sports. I don't really view it as random as much as it being a series of favorable/unfavorable situations playing out.

[Beyond the Bets]

I'm far more successful at finding 'flat spots' for teams in the NBA than I am in NHL or MLB.

[ChiefZilla]

In terms of "most random" to "least random" I would rank them like this (on a game-to-game basis):

1) MLB
2) NHL
3) NBA
4) NFL
5) NCAAB
6) NCAAF

So, looking at that list, I guess I could almost just say that the more games there are in the regular season, the more random I find it to be. But just IMO, of course.

[BetATL]

It would be interesting to see this debate quantified in some form or fashion to determine what sport was truly the "most random."

My initial thought is to agree with Chief's list. The more games the more random the outcome with the professional league's being more random because of more parity. However, I wonder if that is just perception because we get to see more variance over a longer period of time.

I nominate BTB to take on the task of putting this into numbers for us...

[Beyond the Bets]

(11-04-2011 05:28 PM)BetATL Wrote:  I nominate BTB to take on the task of putting this into numbers for us...

It's the weekend. Can't I just go out and get F'd up?

Ah, OK. I guess I can try.

[kreatture]

(11-04-2011 03:20 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  In terms of "most random" to "least random" I would rank them like this (on a game-to-game basis):

1) MLB
2) NHL
3) NBA
4) NFL
5) NCAAB
6) NCAAF

So, looking at that list, I guess I could almost just say that the more games there are in the regular season, the more random I find it to be. But just IMO, of course.

Just read this thread.. being away from the forum for 24 hours really sucked, there's like 3 PAGES on threads to catch up on..

Anyway, it's weird cuz if I were to give MY list on the subject of randomness, It would look the EXACT opposite of the above.

MLB is all about stats and things always balance out by the end of the season. The same teams are generally in the Playoffs every year, with 1 or 2 surprises sometimes. That doesn't seem very random to me.

Whereas in College, it's just kids playing sports. How could anything be MORE random than that? You never know how kids are going to come out and react to situations, whereas in the Pros you can anticipate how they'll respond much more accurately.

Maybe I misread the thread question, cuz I found it odd Chief & myself would have exact opposite answers.

---

Also, the more number of games in a season should result in less randomness. The law of averages and probability have more time to result.

A short season, like football, has a much higher degree of randomness to it.

[zman1415]

(11-04-2011 07:09 PM)Mr Lucky Wrote:  A short season, like football, has a much higher degree of randomness to it.

I think it comes down to the crux of the question. On a given night, I tend to think MLB/NHL is more random. Those are the sports where the bottom feeding team still steals 1 out of 3 games. The bottom feeding teams in the CFB never have a chance because of the pure difference in caliber of athlete from the Oklahomas/Alabamas of the world vs. FIU and UL-Monroe. While that caliber difference isn't as apparent between the top and the middle class, it's still much larger than you see in pro sports. And in the NFL we consistently have 13-3 teams and 2-14 teams. That to me says that the bad teams have less of a shot to pull one out based on some randomness. Now in terms of randomness of a bad team coming out with a good record, I think you're spot on. Short season creates the greatest chance for "fluke" playoff teams and records above or below expectation.

[ramthebuffs]

Also, Basketball has more possessions. CFB has more possessions than NFL etc. I'd probably lean with soccer being the most 'random' sport. There are fewer scoring opportunities in a match compared to other sports and a 'fluke' goal is probably worth about the same as 3r HR or 8pts in the nfl. What makes it not seem random is the disparity between teams in most leagues.
After saying all that I guess that makes baseball the most random because the best teams have a record equal to 10-6 in the NFL and the playoffs are the most varied. I've never really studied how Nippon standings look at the end of the year, but they have the draw like soccer.

[Beyond the Bets]

This question can be broken down in a number of ways, but here is how I'll approach it:

In terms of crowning a champion, I think MLB is the most random of the four major sports. Hockey is a close second, since I've seen way too many top seeds fall to No. 8 seeds, etc.

I've always been comfortable with who the NBA champion is. Ditto on the NFL, but that's likely because I respect that the regular season has a do-or-die feel to it and, as such, so does the playoffs.

If Major League Baseball crowned a champion at the end of the regular season, I think it would be the truest indicator of a champion that professional sports has to offer. Unfortunately, MLB then has its postseason play out, and that thing is a goddamn lottery.

Play 162 games and then you're out in three days? Give me a break.

[ChiefZilla]

Mr Lucky, I think you're reading too fast while trying to catch up. I ranked the randomness of those sports on a game-to-game basis. As in, if the best MLB team plays the worst MLB team, I'd say they have about a 70 percent chance of winning that ONE game, even though over the course of a 162-game season they'll win 30-40 more games than the terrible team.

In NCAAF, if the best team in one conference plays the worst team in that conference (take Oklahoma State-Kansas, for example), I'd say the better team wins that ONE game 95-98 times out of 100. So the randomness on a game-to-game basis is less.

I agree that baseball is the LEAST random sport when it comes to the end of regular season standings.

But the playoffs? Different story. (Because it's a much, much smaller sample size.)

---

Obviously, I should've read what zman, ramthebuffs and BTB wrote before responding, because I basically just repeated them.

[Beyond the Bets]

After today's games in the Big Ten, it's hard to say that college football isn't random.

Minnesota looked like dog meat for seven weeks and is suddenly a juggernaut, winning last week as a 15.5-point dog and then giving Michigan State all it could handle as 28-point dogs today.

Indiana was tied with Ohio State at the half and was within a touchdown late until the Buckeyes tacked on the insurance TD.

Michigan, dominant through the first six weeks, lost to crappy Iowa, which lost to previously crappier Minnesota the week before.

Texas Tech, a week after beating Oklahoma outright as a 28-point road dog, lost to Iowa State 41-7. The Cyclones, by the way, beat Kansas today — by three! — as two-touchdown favorites. This is a Jayhawks team, mind you, that has given up 500 yards of total offense or more in six of their last seven and racked up a whopping 58 yards last week against Texas.

Outside of the elite teams, you really have no clue what you are going to get on a week to week basis. There's no discernible difference between the 30th best team and the 70th best. They all have flaws, they all have attention deficit disorder and they all just want to go home and get high.

[SkyBlues42]

What about the NFL?

With such a limited amount of games during the regular season, one bad turnover could cost a team a spot in the playoffs.

I think because of this, making the playoffs is more 'random' in football than other sports.

But as most of you mentioned, from a game to game instance, I'd have to agree that baseball is by far the most random.

Although I definitely do not agree with the following...

Quote: I'd probably lean with soccer being the most 'random' sport. There are fewer scoring opportunities in a match compared to other sports and a 'fluke' goal is probably worth about the same as 3r HR or 8pts in the nfl.

I think a sport like hockey, that has multiple scoring chances, is random because a deflection is more likely to happen.

[Beyond the Bets]

(11-05-2011 03:45 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  What about the NFL?

I thought the NFL was random when the Chiefs were 0-3 but everything seems fine now.

[SkyBlues42]

The Chiefs are one of the teams that COULD benefit from a "random fumble that costs a team a spot in the playoffs"

[Beyond the Bets]

The Chiefs earned that fumble.

[purekiller98]

lol like the article, agree with alot of the randomness

[CAlex6977]

I think MLB is most random. If you go back and look at betting lines nearly every day the is a +150 or higher dog winning. When it comes to betting that's the kind of random I like!