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JayPrimetown · 08-02-2012, 08:30 AM

Added for UFC 152:
Charles Oliviera vs Cub Swanson

To me this one of the more compelling matchups of the fall. Two up and coming fighters... coming off great finish and stylistic wins. Each is respected in the division and just on the outside of contending. Winner puts themselves very close to a title shot.

I'd cap this at Oliviera at -130. Very close fight, but I like Oliviera due to size and mix of styles. Think Swanson can get in a lot of trouble if this is taken to the ground.

PS - Later today I will lay out my full thoughts on Saturday's UFC on Fox card.

JayPrimetown · (This post was last modified: 08-02-2012 04:14 PM by JayPrimetown.)

Current Lines for UFC on Fox 4 (and fight rankings) and analysis:

Light Heavyweight: Mauricio Rua -340 (#4) / Brandon Vera +280 (#29): This is one of the bigger mismatches we have seen in a main event this year. Shogun has been one of the top fighters in this division for the last few years. He's coming off one of the all time great fights in UFC history with Dan Henderson. The biggest question mark in this fight is will Shogun show up? Some question if his best days are behind him after the punishment he took against Henderson. Brandon Vera is a converted heavyweight that has now fought a handful of fights at light heavyweight. Vera is 1-3 in his last 4 fights with losses to Couture, Jones, and T. Silva. His only win is against Eliot Marshall. Who is Eliot Marshall? Exactly. Vera is just completely out of his element in this fight. Vera does have strong hands, but Shogun has proven to have a great chin. Vera is out of his element in this one. It is a steep price, but I would recommend it in a parlay.

Light Heavyweight: Lyoto Machida -300 (#5) / Ryan Bader +250 (#6): This is a really good matchup. Machida is 17-3 in his career. While Bader is 14-2. Machida is the only fighter to ever knockout Rashad Evans. His only losses to Shogun, Rampage, and Jon Jones. Bader's only losses are to Jon Jones and an absolute shock loss to Tito Ortiz. Bader does have a real advantage with wrestling but Machida's unorthdox style and movement will prevent Bader from the wrestling he used to stifle Rampage. This is a really difficult fight for Bader given Machida's style. Bader is below average on feet and Machida should be able to clip Bader with a couple shots and finish the American. Machida fits in well with a parlay and Machida ITD at +194 is interesting as well.

Lightweight: Joe Lauzon -120 (#29)/ Jamie Varner +100 (#32): This may be the best fight on the fight card. Lauzon is a talented fighter with wins over Melvin Guillard and Jeremy Stephens. Lauzon has only gone to a decision once in his 28 professional fights. For a lightweight, that's a remarkable statistic. Varner is a gifted fighter in his own right... wins over top 10 lightweight Donald Cerrone and what was once the top lightweight prospect in the world in Edson Barboza. Varner was a WEC champion and has years of experience. He went on a 2 year period where he can completely fell off. However, in late 2011 he turned it around capping off his run of form with the 1st Round TKO of Barboza in May 2012. While Lauzon has some talent, he's been finished just as many times as he's finished others. In this fight, he faces a very capable, smart and quality fighter. I think the Varner that was the WEC champ that beat D. Cerrone is high on confidence and wins this fight as a small underdog. Lauzon's only chance is to win this early... but Varner should be smart enough to keep the fight on the feet and afterwards Varner dominates this fight.

Welterweight: Mike Swick -220 (#NR) / DaMarques Johnson +180 (#102): First fight on the main card and the first fight in a long time for Mike Swick. Swick hasn't fought since February 2010. That's an eternity in the fight world. A lot of people like Swick, but it's hard to remember given the 2+ year absence in the octagon. Swick is a long time vet of the UFC, but has never beaten anyone of significance. His last two fights: D. Hardy and P. Thiago were losses. Luckily for Swick, Johnson has no quality wins to date either. He has been finished by the likes of Matt Riddle and Amir Saddolah. D. Johnson does have some power and has the ability to finish Swick. The problem here is the unknown, but if I can get +180 as opposed to laying over -200... it's definitely worth considering. This line really should be in the -150 range for Swick. So, I may just go with Johnson, but hoping it gets to +200.

Featherweight: Cole Miller -135 (#90) / Nam Phan +105 (#88): The 18-6 Cole Miller takes on the always dangerous Nam Phan. 7 of Miller's last 10 fights have ended by stoppage. His best win to date is a submission win over Ross Pearson. The 17-10 Phan is known for putting on entertaining fights. He gets rocked, rocks his opponent, and is capable of winning fight of the nights. Either way you know you're going to get fireworks. With that said, Phan has no top wins. His best win is over Leonard Garcia. Miller also beat Garcia albeit in 2007. Miller has the reach advantage in this one, but Phan is an aggressive fighter and that is something Miller has had problems with in the past. I think Phan is a popular pick given his popularity, but to me this fight is a no play. I think anything can happen here.

Light Heavyweight: Phil Davis -600 (#13) / Wagner Prado +450 (#178): Phil Davis has shown that he is one of the top prospects in the light heavyweight division. He has several top wins most notably over Alexander Gustafsson (submission). He's also beaten top 10 middleweights Brian Stann and Tim Boetsch. 5 of his last 6 fights have gone to decision. Davis is an All American wrestler from Penn State and has dominated nearly every fight he's been in. He's able to get fighters to the ground and hold them there. He's not a great striker (as noted by his lack of knockouts), but winning by controlling of opponent he excels at. His only loss was when he got a lesson in his own game from Rashad Davis (a top 10 pound for pound fighter). Prado is undefeated, but has never fought in the UFC. Now he faces one of the best light heavyweight prospects in the world. While Davis may have problems with Prado's striking, Davis should easily be able to take down Prado. Davis may ultimately submit him on the ground or he wins by decision. I'd look to use Davis in a parlay and if there are decent + odds on the submission finish, I'd look at that one too.

Featherweight: Josh Grispi -165 (#104) / Rani Yahya +135 (#38): Grispi has some solid wins in his past (submitted Hominick and Pulver), but more recently he has lost twice to quality opponents: Poirier (decision) Roop (TKO). Yahya has two quality wins of his own including a submission over E. Wineland and a decision over Mike Brown. Yahya has losses to Benavidez (knockout) and Mendes (decision). Neither fighter has fought in a year's time. Grispi has had problems in recent fights on the feet, but Yahya is not the kind of fighter who will challenge Grispi in this way. Yahya has a BJJ background and will have an advantage on the ground. Yahya has several wins via submission. Grispi does have some issues with cardio, so that would be a concern as well. Expect Grispi to win the striking exchanges, but the cardio worries me. Grispi should win early on, but no idea if he fades late. With both fighters off a long lay off, I would not touch this fight.

Heavyweight: Phil de Fries -205 (#66)/ Oli Thompson +165 (#217): Thompson has no marquee wins in his UFC career while he has a decision loss to Rob Broughton and was knocked out in the second round by Shawn Jordan. Meanwhile de Fries beat Broughton by decision, but was knocked out in the first round by the highly touted and undefeated Stipe Miocic. Thompson comes from the World's Strongest Man background. He's a big, strong fighter, but speed is a real issue for him. de Fries wants this fight on the floor. He's a gifted fighter on the ground and needs this fight on the ground in order to win it. Neither fighter has looked all that impressive in their UFC appearances and at these odds I wouldn't play this fight. From the prop side, I think there's a good chance de Fries is able to submit Thompson as Thompson has inkling to take fights to the ground, but against Thompson that's not something you want to do.

Featherweight: Manny Gamburian -170 (#20) / Michihiro Omigawa +140 (#39): Gamburian is fighting in his home state and seems significantly motivated for this fight. Gamburian comes in on a 3 fight losing streak, but all 3 losses to quality fighters including the champion Jose Aldo. Gamburian has a slight advantage on the feet and that's where the large majority of this fight should play out. Neither is a submission specialist. Omigawa hasn't been finished in a fight since 2005. For a guy that is 13-11, that just shows how durable he is. Omigawa does have some quality wins such as M. Sandro and H. Hioki and some respectable losses such as D. Elkins and C. Mendes.

Flyweight: Ulysses Gomez -180 (#NR)/ John Moraga +150 (#NR): Gomez comes from an athletic family. His brother is a professional soccer player who has been capped several times by the United States Men's National Team. Gomez is known for solid grappling / BJJ and is a former champion with the Tachi Palace promotion. Moraga's resume not nearly as impressive. but he's won 5 of his career 9 wins by submission. Only loss to Jon Dodson... respected prospect in the 125 pound division. Gomez will have significant advantage on the ground, so look for Moraga to keep fight on the feet. Moraga was originally brought in to fight Ian McCall (top 5 fighter at 125), so I think there's something to be said for that. I wouldn't play Gomez straight up, but by submission. Otherwise, take the upset with Moraga. Less hype, but perhaps more well rounded and he has the ability to clip him on the feet. I'd stay away from a side on this fight, unless Moraga goes to +160 or more. Depending on the odds, I'd look to play this fight to go to a decision.

attyg3 · 08-02-2012, 01:52 PM

Shop around if you're playing Moraga, you can get a lot better than +150.

JayPrimetown · 08-02-2012, 04:22 PM

(08-02-2012 01:52 PM)attyg3 Wrote: Shop around if you're playing Moraga, you can get a lot better than +150.

Looks like the Moraga has moved to +160. I want a little more than that before I budge.

attyg3 · (This post was last modified: 08-03-2012 01:03 AM by attyg3.)

(08-02-2012 04:22 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:
(08-02-2012 01:52 PM)attyg3 Wrote: Shop around if you're playing Moraga, you can get a lot better than +150.

Looks like the Moraga has moved to +160. I want a little more than that before I budge.

Glad I jumped on the +210 two days ago

JayPrimetown · 08-03-2012, 10:40 AM

Machida ITD at +194 is definitely intriguing. No doubt that Machida clips Bader at some point. He should have a chance at a finish here.

I'd like to see a de Fries submission prop... hoping the Johnson line moves as well.

JoeyG · 08-04-2012, 11:57 AM

Just wanted to say thank you Jay for providing excellent MMA commentary and analysis. I will do my best to chime in here as much as possible and start one of my own as well, in an effort to keep valuable MMA betting information as near the top of the forum threads as possible, for everyone's benefit!

Keep up the solid work.

JoeyG · 08-04-2012, 12:24 PM

For conversations sake, I'll list a one of my unique opinions. Everyone feel free to chime in.

I like to play value spots in decision props. I am a firm believer that betting fights to go the distance is a highly profitable strategy, if you pick the right spots. I aim for the +175 to +200 spots generally, this way I don't even need to hit 50% to yield a profit.

Here's one I like on this card:

Johnson/Swick goes the distance (+200)

I feel like the UFC has given Mike Swick a very favorable matchup for his return fight. I feel he holds an advantage everywhere over Johnson, who is a gamer but not overly impressive in any area. I think Swick might need a few rounds in the octagon to shake off some ring rust, and wins a decision here in what might be a bit more of a lackluster contest than we hope for it to be.

While Swick is known as a "finisher", 5 of his last 7 fights have gone the distance, including fights against Dan Hardy (66% finish rate) and Marcus Davis (75% finish rate). Johnson maybe be a "finisher" himself, but he's fought a very lackluster list of opponents. I'm not giving him a great shot at stopping Swick.

JayPrimetown · 08-04-2012, 03:26 PM

Coming off a layoff is so hard to properly cap a fight. Swick has had problems in the past with cardio and that's what worries me here. Which fighter will we see? I'm just going to sit it out.

JayPrimetown · 08-05-2012, 06:01 PM

Just released UFC lines: Y. Okami -410 / B. Roberts +300. M. Holloway -120 / J. Lawrence -120. D. Cerrone -350 / M. Guillard +250

Will recap my pre-fight analysis from Saturday later tonight.

That Okami line should be even higher. Maybe -500 or -550. That is a crazy mismatch. Would of loved Cerrone at a lower price, will look to take him to win ITD. Maybe even by submission.

JoeyG · 08-06-2012, 03:34 AM

I saw Okami open as low as -320! Would have loved to scoop that number, instead locked him into an open parlay at close to -500 :/

Love Cerrone by Sub prop, really not much value in that straight number, which is disappointing.

JayPrimetown · 08-06-2012, 09:44 AM

(08-06-2012 03:34 AM)JoeyG Wrote: I saw Okami open as low as -320! Would have loved to scoop that number, instead locked him into an open parlay at close to -500 :/

Love Cerrone by Sub prop, really not much value in that straight number, which is disappointing.

I'm curious what that sub price will be as well. Can only look to play Okami in a parlay. Buddy Roberts does not challenge him in any facet of the game.

JayPrimetown · (This post was last modified: 08-06-2012 04:21 PM by JayPrimetown.)

(08-02-2012 11:11 AM)JayPrimetown Wrote: Current Lines for UFC on Fox 4 (and fight rankings) and analysis:

Light Heavyweight: Mauricio Rua -340 (#4) / Brandon Vera +280 (#29): This is one of the bigger mismatches we have seen in a main event this year. Shogun has been one of the top fighters in this division for the last few years. He's coming off one of the all time great fights in UFC history with Dan Henderson. The biggest question mark in this fight is will Shogun show up? Some question if his best days are behind him after the punishment he took against Henderson. Brandon Vera is a converted heavyweight that has now fought a handful of fights at light heavyweight. Vera is 1-3 in his last 4 fights with losses to Couture, Jones, and T. Silva. His only win is against Eliot Marshall. Who is Eliot Marshall? Exactly. Vera is just completely out of his element in this fight. Vera does have strong hands, but Shogun has proven to have a great chin. Vera is out of his element in this one. It is a steep price, but I would recommend it in a parlay.
Result: This was another epic war for Shogun. His last few fights have seen him take a pounding. It's clear that he is no longer at his peak. Still one of the great warriors of MMA and he showed that in the main event. His opponent, Brandon Vera, had one of his best fights in his career and truly challenged Shogun. But in the end Shogun did enough to hurt Vera and ultimately finished him in the 4th round. As such a big favorite, some expected Shogun to walk over Vera, but it ended up being an engaging fight with both having opportunities.

Light Heavyweight: Lyoto Machida -300 (#5) / Ryan Bader +250 (#6): This is a really good matchup. Machida is 17-3 in his career. While Bader is 14-2. Machida is the only fighter to ever knockout Rashad Evans. His only losses to Shogun, Rampage, and Jon Jones. Bader's only losses are to Jon Jones and an absolute shock loss to Tito Ortiz. Bader does have a real advantage with wrestling but Machida's unorthdox style and movement will prevent Bader from the wrestling he used to stifle Rampage. This is a really difficult fight for Bader given Machida's style. Bader is below average on feet and Machida should be able to clip Bader with a couple shots and finish the American. Machida fits in well with a parlay and Machida ITD at +194 is interesting as well.
Result: This was as one sided of a top level fight as you will see. Bader had no idea how to deal with Machida. All of his punches (which were very few) seemed to miss by a wide distance. Machida was able to pick him apart with kicks and timely punches. In the second round, Machida hit him straight on and knocked him out. Machida deservedly gets a shot at Jon Jones... who he won the first round against back in December, before Jones caught him, took him to the ground, and finished him. Bader meanwhile needs to go back to the drawing board.

Lightweight: Joe Lauzon -120 (#29)/ Jamie Varner +100 (#32): This may be the best fight on the fight card. Lauzon is a talented fighter with wins over Melvin Guillard and Jeremy Stephens. Lauzon has only gone to a decision once in his 28 professional fights. For a lightweight, that's a remarkable statistic. Varner is a gifted fighter in his own right... wins over top 10 lightweight Donald Cerrone and what was once the top lightweight prospect in the world in Edson Barboza. Varner was a WEC champion and has years of experience. He went on a 2 year period where he can completely fell off. However, in late 2011 he turned it around capping off his run of form with the 1st Round TKO of Barboza in May 2012. While Lauzon has some talent, he's been finished just as many times as he's finished others. In this fight, he faces a very capable, smart and quality fighter. I think the Varner that was the WEC champ that beat D. Cerrone is high on confidence and wins this fight as a small underdog. Lauzon's only chance is to win this early... but Varner should be smart enough to keep the fight on the feet and afterwards Varner dominates this fight.
Result: This was one of the top 3 fights of the year. Varner looked like a title contender early. Getting inside with body shots and jabs. Lauzon was competitive, but a notch below. Fight drastically changed when Varner broke his hand during the second round. Because of this, Varner was only able to throw elbows with the right and tried to change tactics to fight on the ground. This proved deadly vs. Lauzon (easily the best conditioned he has looked in any of his fights). Eventually as Varner got tired and unable to strike with his favored right, Lauzon was able to get the fight on the ground where he has deadly submissions. The ending was similar to the first Sonnen / Silva fight where Varner had gained top control, but Lauzon on the bottom wrapped his legs up and was eventually able to get the tapout. Both of these fighters looked excellent. Lauzon should jump into the top 10 with the win and face someone like Gray Maynard. Varner, in my opinion, wins this fight if the hand doesn't break, so hard to discredit him either. I'd like to see him against Jim Miller next. Maybe even Melvin Guillard, assuming he loses to Cerrone next weekend.

Welterweight: Mike Swick -220 (#NR) / DaMarques Johnson +180 (#102): First fight on the main card and the first fight in a long time for Mike Swick. Swick hasn't fought since February 2010. That's an eternity in the fight world. A lot of people like Swick, but it's hard to remember given the 2+ year absence in the octagon. Swick is a long time vet of the UFC, but has never beaten anyone of significance. His last two fights: D. Hardy and P. Thiago were losses. Luckily for Swick, Johnson has no quality wins to date either. He has been finished by the likes of Matt Riddle and Amir Saddolah. D. Johnson does have some power and has the ability to finish Swick. The problem here is the unknown, but if I can get +180 as opposed to laying over -200... it's definitely worth considering. This line really should be in the -150 range for Swick. So, I may just go with Johnson, but hoping it gets to +200.
Result: Swick dominated the early going, but quickly stamina became an issue. He was in real trouble at the end of the first round by was saved by the bell. In the second round, Swick was able to connect and knocked out Johnson... who looked decent before the knockout. Swick is still a fan favorite with solid power, but conditioning will haunt him against the better fighters in the division.

Featherweight: Cole Miller -135 (#90) / Nam Phan +105 (#88): The 18-6 Cole Miller takes on the always dangerous Nam Phan. 7 of Miller's last 10 fights have ended by stoppage. His best win to date is a submission win over Ross Pearson. The 17-10 Phan is known for putting on entertaining fights. He gets rocked, rocks his opponent, and is capable of winning fight of the nights. Either way you know you're going to get fireworks. With that said, Phan has no top wins. His best win is over Leonard Garcia. Miller also beat Garcia albeit in 2007. Miller has the reach advantage in this one, but Phan is an aggressive fighter and that is something Miller has had problems with in the past. I think Phan is a popular pick given his popularity, but to me this fight is a no play. I think anything can happen here.
Result: This really was a back and forth fight. In the 3rd round, Phan was much more aggressive and thus was awarded the decision. Neither fighter showed that they were ready for the next step to be a top 15 fighter in their weightclass.

Light Heavyweight: Phil Davis -600 (#13) / Wagner Prado +450 (#178): Phil Davis has shown that he is one of the top prospects in the light heavyweight division. He has several top wins most notably over Alexander Gustafsson (submission). He's also beaten top 10 middleweights Brian Stann and Tim Boetsch. 5 of his last 6 fights have gone to decision. Davis is an All American wrestler from Penn State and has dominated nearly every fight he's been in. He's able to get fighters to the ground and hold them there. He's not a great striker (as noted by his lack of knockouts), but winning by controlling of opponent he excels at. His only loss was when he got a lesson in his own game from Rashad Davis (a top 10 pound for pound fighter). Prado is undefeated, but has never fought in the UFC. Now he faces one of the best light heavyweight prospects in the world. While Davis may have problems with Prado's striking, Davis should easily be able to take down Prado. Davis may ultimately submit him on the ground or he wins by decision. I'd look to use Davis in a parlay and if there are decent + odds on the submission finish, I'd look at that one too.
Result: An early eye poke caught Prado and forced the ref to stop the fight awarding the fight a no contest. The couple minutes that we did see show that Prado had the advantage on the feet, just too early to know if Davis would have success taking him to the ground. If offs remain the same, Prado would be worth a small play.

Featherweight: Josh Grispi -165 (#104) / Rani Yahya +135 (#38): Grispi has some solid wins in his past (submitted Hominick and Pulver), but more recently he has lost twice to quality opponents: Poirier (decision) Roop (TKO). Yahya has two quality wins of his own including a submission over E. Wineland and a decision over Mike Brown. Yahya has losses to Benavidez (knockout) and Mendes (decision). Neither fighter has fought in a year's time. Grispi has had problems in recent fights on the feet, but Yahya is not the kind of fighter who will challenge Grispi in this way. Yahya has a BJJ background and will have an advantage on the ground. Yahya has several wins via submission. Grispi does have some issues with cardio, so that would be a concern as well. Expect Grispi to win the striking exchanges, but the cardio worries me. Grispi should win early on, but no idea if he fades late. With both fighters off a long lay off, I would not touch this fight.
Result: Yahya was able to get this fight to the ground rather easily. Grispi was totally outclassed on the floor as Yahya applied the submission for the win in Round 1. Grispi, still young, but have to scratch your head how poorly he has performed in his last few fights.

Heavyweight: Phil de Fries -205 (#66)/ Oli Thompson +165 (#217): Thompson has no marquee wins in his UFC career while he has a decision loss to Rob Broughton and was knocked out in the second round by Shawn Jordan. Meanwhile de Fries beat Broughton by decision, but was knocked out in the first round by the highly touted and undefeated Stipe Miocic. Thompson comes from the World's Strongest Man background. He's a big, strong fighter, but speed is a real issue for him. de Fries wants this fight on the floor. He's a gifted fighter on the ground and needs this fight on the ground in order to win it. Neither fighter has looked all that impressive in their UFC appearances and at these odds I wouldn't play this fight. From the prop side, I think there's a good chance de Fries is able to submit Thompson as Thompson has inkling to take fights to the ground, but against Thompson that's not something you want to do.
Result: De Fries was much more effective on the feet than I had thought. He was able to clip Thompson and then get on top of him and apply a submission to finish the fight. Submission prop was unavailable for this fight unfortunately. As an aside, this is likely Thompson's last fight in the UFC. He's just not up to par.

Featherweight: Manny Gamburian -170 (#20) / Michihiro Omigawa +140 (#39): Gamburian is fighting in his home state and seems significantly motivated for this fight. Gamburian comes in on a 3 fight losing streak, but all 3 losses to quality fighters including the champion Jose Aldo. Gamburian has a slight advantage on the feet and that's where the large majority of this fight should play out. Neither is a submission specialist. Omigawa hasn't been finished in a fight since 2005. For a guy that is 13-11, that just shows how durable he is. Omigawa does have some quality wins such as M. Sandro and H. Hioki and some respectable losses such as D. Elkins and C. Mendes.
Result: This was a very competitive fight. Omigawa had Gamburian winded, but Gamburian was able to take Omigawa down with ease. That was the deciding factor in the decision.

Flyweight: Ulysses Gomez -180 (#NR)/ John Moraga +150 (#NR): Gomez comes from an athletic family. His brother is a professional soccer player who has been capped several times by the United States Men's National Team. Gomez is known for solid grappling / BJJ and is a former champion with the Tachi Palace promotion. Moraga's resume not nearly as impressive. but he's won 5 of his career 9 wins by submission. Only loss to Jon Dodson... respected prospect in the 125 pound division. Gomez will have significant advantage on the ground, so look for Moraga to keep fight on the feet. Moraga was originally brought in to fight Ian McCall (top 5 fighter at 125), so I think there's something to be said for that. I wouldn't play Gomez straight up, but by submission. Otherwise, take the upset with Moraga. Less hype, but perhaps more well rounded and he has the ability to clip him on the feet. I'd stay away from a side on this fight, unless Moraga goes to +160 or more. Depending on the odds, I'd look to play this fight to go to a decision.
Result: Moraga's stand up was just too much for Gomez to handle. Gomez' inability to get the fight to the ground proved deadly as Moraga TKO'd him in the first round. Impressive win.

JoeyG · 08-07-2012, 07:19 AM

I saw that you had locked in a parlay of Holloway/Okami. I like Holloway as well, I think he has a bright future. Scrap with Lawrence should be highly entertaining.

JoeyG · 08-07-2012, 07:46 AM

Who are you on in the main event this weekend Jay? I'm fairly confident in Bendo.

JayPrimetown · 08-07-2012, 08:56 AM

(08-07-2012 07:46 AM)JoeyG Wrote: Who are you on in the main event this weekend Jay? I'm fairly confident in Bendo.

Yep, I favor Holloway in this matchup with Lawrence. The TUF fighter was one of the favorites on the show because he was young and showed knockout ability. However, he never impressed me as much as others. I thought Chiesa was the best fighter on that show... he ended up winning and somehow was the underdog in most of those fights. Never made sense to me... Lawrence was losing to Cofer before he landed a ridiculous knockout in the 3rd round of the TUF Finale show.

Holloway is one of the youngest guys in UFC and has high level technical ability. He was smart in his last fight making sure to keep the fight standing against a guy who wanted the fight on the floor. Reach will be a factor in the fight and Lawrence will have real trouble getting inside as Holloway will use his leg kicks. Ground shouldn't be an issue here either as Lawrence hasn't shown that he can hurt anyone there. Holloway is nearly back to a pickem as a lot of sharps have bet the # down after Holloway peaked at +125.

------------
Here's the thing with Frankie Edgar... he has shown that he is resilient. Even when he was caught by that up kick in the 2nd round against Henderson, he was able to survive the round and I thought he was the better fighter in the championship rounds. If not for the upkick, he wins that fight (I had the first fight 48-47). Edgar showed against Gray Maynard that he learns as well as anybody in the sport. Being in the challenger spot is also an advantage for him. Edgar has one of the best motors in the sport and is always the aggressor which plays well with the judges. Henderson is a very good fighter... I've liked him over the years, but his lack of going for the kill against Edgar stood out to me. Remember Edgar was catching all of Henderson's kicks... he wasn't phased by them. Without the fluke up kick, the decision in the fight goes the other way. I picked Edgar up at +158 and thought those odds were great. Now, he's +165. That's some real value on the former champion.

JoeyG · 08-07-2012, 04:03 PM

It is difficult to argue against Edgar's resilience. He is undoubtedly one of the more battled tested fighters to grace the octagon, and his will and determination is second to none. Eventually though, that's bound to not be enough for him to win title fights, as seemed to be the case last time. Yes, the upkick probably won Henderson round 2, but it's hard for me to say it won him the fight. Two judges scored the fight 49-46, with the third judge scoring it 48-47. So take away the second from Henderson and he still wins a split decision, theoretically. It can also be said that the kick was fight altering, perhaps impairing Edgar for the continuation of the bout, but I also find that tough to sell considering Edgar's incredible track record of recovery against Maynard.

I've spent the last couple days analyzing their previous bout, and several things stood out to me to reaffirm my position. Contrary to your thoughts, I felt that Henderson was certainly the more aggressive fighter, landing more strikes, pushing the pace and constantly taking the center of the cage. And while Edgar was catching a lot of Hendo's kicks, he was not effectively countering, and by my estimation those shots were landing and were effective attacks. Henderson was the stronger and larger of the two men, and while Edgar did land several takedowns, he completed less than 50% and was never able to pass guard nor keep Hendo on the mat for more than a few seconds. It should also be noted that Hendo was successful on his lone takedown attempt and was active with submissions, nearly ending the fight via guillotine in the 3rd.

My opinion is that while Edgar is an excellent fighter, he is fighting in the wrong weight class and it has finally caught up to him. Henderson nullifies his speed and athleticism advantages he holds over most fighters. Edgar must fight a near perfect fight to out point Henderson, and I just don't think he will be able to do that against Ben, who looks more and more impressive each time he fights. Henderson knows what it feels like to lose a title, and he will not want to experience that again. I predict Henderson by a similar margin of victory as the first fight.

I believe I will be parlaying Henderson/Okami, which is currently paying -120. However, I do believe there will be some "smart money" coming in on Edgar late which should drop the line on Hendo.

JayPrimetown · 08-07-2012, 05:05 PM

I honestly though Edgar broke his nose with the upkick... so I would say with some confidence that it effected his breathing and thus his output for the remainder of the fight. I was surprised to hear the final margin at the end as I thought Edgar had been the better fighter in the 4th and 5th round. Don't think there was any question Henderson won Rounds 2 & 3.

I think a 2 to 1 on Henderson is way, way expensive. That's where Barao ended up against Faber. Heck, even Aldo was only -220 vs Mendes in January. We're talking about a guy who beat the legendary BJ Penn, not once, but twice and knocked out Gray Maynard (a much larger fighter). While I can see your enthusiasm for Ben Henderson, I think the price is really steep.

At even odds, I wouldn't be playing Frankie Edgar, but at +160... absolutely.

I have this fight capped at Henderson -135, Edgar +105. So, you can see my line varies a lot from the oddsmakers.

Anyway, I definitely agree with you that if you do play Henderson, you should do so in a parlay with Okami. That or play Henderson via decision.

jimmysingh9 · 08-07-2012, 05:39 PM

Great analysis jayprimetown! Look forward to reading those preflight analysis

JayPrimetown · 08-08-2012, 11:04 AM

(08-07-2012 05:39 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote: Great analysis jayprimetown! Look forward to reading those preflight analysis

Will do. Just waiting for the prelim lines to come out and I'll begin the writeups.

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