Primetown Discussion

[attyg3]

No opinion on Munoz or Weideman. That's a dead pick em in my eyes, so I won't be on either side.

I also have tickets to the fight, that I bought some months back. Like JP said, it's International Fight Week, so I'm sure there will be give aways and the scalpers will be out in full force. The fan expo on July 6-7 at Mandalay is great too. Check it out if you have time.

JP, first time in Vegas, damn I'm excited for you! Congrats on the wedding. I sent you a tweet last week about how I've been bugging Dave Mason for a year, about adding fight parlays. I saw his response, so hopefully we can help get this done.

I agree with both of you on Mendes, Mckenzie is a 1 trick pony. I'm sure I will have Mendes tied up in a lot of parlays.

I too like the value on Cote. Cung's cardio is laughable, and I will take + money against him all day.

You guys have any opinions on Camoes/Guillard? Same story with Melvin, a total amateur on the ground, and probably has the worst sub defense I've ever seen. But, he's a beast on his feet, interested to see the number. Also,any leans on Kim/Maia, Easton/Menjivar?

[JayPrimetown]

Some new fight odds are up from the MMAOddsBreaker Guys:

H. Lombard (-310) - Tim Boetsch (+240)
Shogun Rua (-290) - B. Vera (+220)
Miocic (-275) - Struve (+205)
Benavidez (-280) - D. Johnson (+210)

Early thoughts... For a relative unproven, Lombard should not be a 3 to 1 favorite over a guy who just beat one of the best in the division in Y. Okami. Rua should be a bigger favorite than Lombard... no question about it. How does Vera win this fight? I thought Miocic would be a smaller favorite... around -200 and I would of played it there. Now, I think they oddsmakers capped it right.

Benavidez is listed as a strong favorite and rightfully so. He's an extremely talented fighter and I think he dominates Mighty Mouse for the majority of this fight. A Shogun / Benavidez parlay is really juicy.

[JayPrimetown]

Switching focus to tennis:

Men's QF:

Djokovic - Mayer
Federer - Youzhny
Ferrer - Murray
Kolschreiber - Tsonga (Up break and two games away)

I think the first two matches will be fairly routine. Mayer's first slam quarter against the best in the world. This is a lesson, but one that will help him long run. Youzhny is a tricky player... he could take a set, but Fed closes in the end.

Bottom of the draw is very interesting. Ferrer-Murray is a rematch of the French QF which saw Ferrer win in 4 sets. Ferrer has looked great against Roddick and Del Potro... both big hitters that should excel on this surface. Murray has played better since being troubled by Baghdatis including the domination of Cilic. This is the top match of the QFs and has the potential to be a classic. Murray will be favored, but if Ferrer dips to +175 or so, I'd fancy a play on Ferrer. Ferrer gets to nearly every ball and that will simply frustrate Murray. It's a dangerous matchup for Murray who doesn't have to deal with any of the Big 3 to make the final.

Other QF matchup is P. Kolhschreiber and Jo Willy Tsonga. Kohl has played some great tennis this week but the competition has been poor at best. His best opponent is an aging Tommy Haas who took him to 5 sets. Tsonga has been surging this year to take the next step... he made the semis at the French and gave Djokovic all he could handle. This is the time for Tsonga to continue that surge to separate him from the Del Po / Berdych group and make him a legit top 6 player in the world.

On the women's side, I think this tournament is down to 2 players that can win it: S. Williams and A. Kerber.

People will ask... Why not V. Azarenka? Answer is simple: S. Williams owns V. Azarenka. Don't see anyway Aza can beat Serena. Meanwhile, Kerber has the most wins on tour this year... she has great power and is a shotmaker. Those are the ingredients you need to beat Serena. Radwanska is an interesting possibility, but there's a reason she hasn't made a major semifinal (she may today) and that is a weak serve. She lacks power on the serve and will be dominated by the world's top players... as has been seen by Azarenka owning her the last 6-12 months.

[attyg3]

5dimes listed UFC 148 preliminary odds today, Here's a few of the fights that we previously discussed:

Mendes -650/Mckenzie +440
Menjivar -115/Easton -115
Guillard -290/Camoes +210
Roller -185/Alessio +145
Tibau -175/Nurmagomedov +135

[attyg3]

Cote is at -230, Le +190

[attyg3]

Not sure about you guys, but I really like Phillippou -170 over Fukuda.

[JayPrimetown]

Phillippou has really impressed me. Line has moved a bit, but I'd play it all the way to -250.

That line on Mendes is abusurdly high, but he's the vastly superior fighter. Maybe throw it in a parlay if it makes sense. Perhaps with Phillippou to bring the juice down. Will be looking at Roller over Alessio. Yes, Roller is on a 3 fight losing streak, but all of those losses were to better fighters than Alessio. A Roller / Mendes parlay makes a lot of sense to me.

I like Cote over Cung Le, but not at that price. Love Menjivar's style... and I'm surprised that's a pickem. Need to look at that one more.

Haven't seen enough of Nurmagomedov to accurately handicap that fight.

[attyg3]

I agree with everything you said. Made a big move on Phillippou at -170 on sportsbook.

[JayPrimetown]

Was in Vegas for the past week or so. Cleaned up nicely at the Wynn on the Weidman / Munoz Fuel Card. Let's get the discussion going again... especially as UFC 149 is on Saturday.

Some fresh UFC lines (from 5 Dimes):

Jordan: -120
Kongo: -120

Y. Okami: -260
R. Palhares: +180

Posting an old line as it hasn't been talked about in this thread and I think it's at an interesting price:

J. Shields: -170
E. Herman: +150

[attyg3]

I'm guessing I'm in the minority, but I like Shawn Jordan a lot. The kid has made me a lot of money his last 2 fights against Johnson and Thompson. I was hoping to get + money against Kongo, but the word is out. He went toe to toe with Johnson on the feet, dropped him and then finished him on the ground. Jordan has an unbelievable chin, and he continues to improve every fight under Greg Jackson.

Kongo is obviously solid on the feet, and more experienced, but I think Jordan, the former LSU fullback gets the W. Thoughts, I'm guessing most people like Kongo?

Kongo backers, BOL has Jordan -125, and Kongo +105.

Interested to see the McGee/Ring line

[mount187]

Jay, WTF? There was a whole slate of UEFA plays today, and this thread had nothing! I'm just giving you a hard time. Baseball is consuming my time, so I'll be leaning on some of you guys for info early in the season. Still, it's great to see soccer scores and lines being discussed on Twitter again. Good luck in the coming season!

[JayPrimetown]

(07-17-2012 04:00 PM)attyg3 Wrote:  I'm guessing I'm in the minority, but I like Shawn Jordan a lot. The kid has made me a lot of money his last 2 fights against Johnson and Thompson. I was hoping to get + money against Kongo, but the word is out. He went toe to toe with Johnson on the feet, dropped him and then finished him on the ground. Jordan has an unbelievable chin, and he continues to improve every fight under Greg Jackson.

Kongo is obviously solid on the feet, and more experienced, but I think Jordan, the former LSU fullback gets the W. Thoughts, I'm guessing most people like Kongo?

Kongo backers, BOL has Jordan -125, and Kongo +105.

Interested to see the McGee/Ring line

Yep... I have an average size play on Kongo at +105. Although he's now available at +115 at 5Dimes.

I think you're overrating the chin of Jordan as he has been clipped before. Kongo is a much more advanced fighter than L. Johnson. Big Johnson is a bit of a one trick pony... get him on the ground and you have a decent submission game... good night. I think Jordan is stepping up in class here in this fight. In these instances, I prefer the experienced fighter... especially one as desperate for a win as Kongo is.

I picked up Ring just after the line was released at -110. I cap ring at -155 to -170 in this fight. So, I'll gladly pay minimal juice... line has since moved at 5 Dimes to Ring -155 / McGee +115. One thing to note is Ring is fighting in his adopted hometown of Calgary. The crowd will be behind him. I was really surprised how much C. Phillipou dominated McGee in his last fight. McGee just doesn't have the quickness necessary. Could be close but I do like Ring at the initial price and mentioned I'd play him up to -170.

Two other lines released today:

B. Ebersole -370
J. Head +310

M. Riddle -150
C. Clements +130

Ebersole should win this fight fairly easily, but that's an expensive price for a midtier fighter. May put him in a parlay or two. I haven't capped Riddle / Clements yet.

To Mount... Too early in the year for me to look at UEFA. I played the last round of qualification into the Champions League proper in 2011, but nothing earlier. Clubs are still planning for the season and experimenting. My soccer focus is MLS and I'm starting to cap the Brazilian league. Will dabble in EPL as well. Always up for soccer discussion if anyone wants to talk soccer.

[mount187]

(07-17-2012 10:30 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  My soccer focus is MLS ....

How has the draw been playing in the MLS this season? I know it was a gold mine last year, but I haven't had a chance to track it this season.

[JayPrimetown]

(07-17-2012 10:31 PM)mount187 Wrote:  

(07-17-2012 10:30 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  My soccer focus is MLS ....

How has the draw been playing in the MLS this season? I know it was a gold mine last year, but I haven't had a chance to track it this season.

Draw was awful early and I basically gave up on it. As the heat has increased and injuries have increased around the league, seeing more draws now. Will re-evaluate after tomorrow's full set of games and post here.

Scoring has been up a bit around the league. I've had some decent success at overs.

[attyg3]

JP, I agree with you regarding Johnson's amateurish ground game, but what impressed me is Jordan dropped him on the feet. He then was able to lock in the submission after Johnson was clearly hurt. Johnson is no joke on the feet, so I was quite impressed by how Jordan beat him.

Totally agree that this is a step up in class, and that Kongo is much more advanced than Johnson. We will see what happens.

I capped Ring at -165, so I'm right with you on that one. Good job getting in early, hopefully some of the other shops will open where 5dimes did.

The Ebersole line scares me, especially because he just fought on the FX4 card(Unanimous dec) that was less than a month ago. Don't think I want to lay that number with such a quick turn around.

[JayPrimetown]

I wouldn't have played Kongo at -170. But I have him capped at -150... so getting him at plus money was something I wanted to do.

Ebersole is an interesting fighter... unorthodox style and has pretty good cardio. I don't think the recent fight will be much of an issue for him. This isn't a fighter who can really hurt him. I wouldn't play it straight by any means, but he's safe to put in a parlay.

[attyg3]

Here's more prelim lines for UFC 149

Delorme +100
Rivera -120

Perosh +145
Jimmo -165

Caraway -200
Gagnon +170

Carvalho +185
Pineda -225

Clarke +150
Kuivanen -170

I like Delorme and Caraway. Will have Caraway on quite a few parlays. Already made a decent size play on Delorme at +110(Sportsbook)

What do you guys think, anything else stand out to anybody?

[JayPrimetown]

I picked up Delorme at +110... thought that was a generous line. I have him favored at -130 or so. Very little on the prelims I want to play... I like Pineda as a fighter, but the price is steep. If the price dips under -200, I'll look to parlay him with someone from another card to drop the odds to even or + money.

Perosh is a dog that I think can win. He's a veteran and a pretty smart fighter... can never discount that in a fight against a "talent" making his UFC debut. Time and time again we see newbies lose in their opening fight to a veteran. I'd like Perosh in the +170 range.

The odds on Lombard continue to rise... shocking to me is at +325. This screams stay away... not sure how one could play Lombard at nearly -400.

Overall, this is the most disappointing prelim card I've seen in awhile... very little interests me. Main card on the other hand I think is really underrated.

[JayPrimetown]

No major MMA card this weekend, but next weekend we get UFC on Fox.

I really like the 4 fight main card there:

Shogun / Vera
Bader / Machida
Browne / Rothwell
Lauzon / Varner

While UFC 149 was a bust for all intents and purposes... tho the Boetsch and Head underdogs paid out at 3 to 1. UFC on Fox should be an entertaining card with several fights that are finished as opposed to going to a decision. So, there should be some opportunities on the totals for the main card fights.

I'd look to round robin / parlay the favorites in the first three fights. I think they all win and win convincingly. The Varner / Lauzon odds haven't been released yet, but I'd look at Varner at +140 or better. He's much more well rounded and has a higher ceiling than Lauzon... Varner fell off the map a few years ago after being WEC Champion, but with his TKO of highly touted Brazilian Edson Barboza confidence is all back with him. Curious to see where that line opens.

[attyg3]

Looks like Browne and Rothwell has been scrapped due to injury. Looks like it will be Brown vs Devin Cole.

Last UFC was hard on the eyes and overall I had a small loss(Jordan, Delorme). JP, u were right, Bad call by me on Jordan, just not on that level. Caraway came through and I was able to hit on a few parlays to minimize the loss. I was right on Ebersole though, I never like guys off that short of rest, especially at that price.

I'm with you regarding Varner, never been a fan of Lauzon's game. I think Varner takes him down with ease and as long as he doesn't get caught in a submission he will be fine.

Fox card is extremely chalky, so I'm interested to see the prelim odds. I lean towards Vera/Rua going longer than most think, but I need to see the odds.