Poinsettia Bowl- Wednesday, La. Tech vs. TCU (-9) at 8 p.m.

[The Peoples Champ]

Getting this thing cranked up before I head to bed, and first, the relevant non-betting info:

Poinsettia Bowl
TCU (10-2) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-4)
Date: Dec. 21 at 8 p.m. ET
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, Calif.

Both of these clubs ended the season nicely, and score over 30 points a game, so I think this one has track meet written all over it.

La. Tech is brutal against the pass, which should leave plenty of time and room for Casey Patchall to throw, but if he's off, Tech had the best run defense in the WAC, so that could provide to be a huge advantage.

As far as strength of schedule goes, TCU has played a more quality sked, and I wonder if their disappointment for not getting in to a BCS bowl will have a major effect here, and is why this game has moved two points towards La. Tech so far.

Two more final notes: La. Tech's punter, Ryan Allen, was the Ray Guy Award winner, and is a stud. Secondly, I don't think it can be understated the difference Tech has had since Colby Cameron took over the reigns at QB.

Pick: I would have been more inclined to play Tech if I would have taken a look before it moved under 10, so I think I'll wait and see where the number goes tomorrow. I think TCU certainly has the skill player advantage, but if it comes down to a slugish type of game, as it might, Allen booming the hell out of the ball may keep Tech within the number.

One last thing to add to this: Tech has like a +15 turnover differential, and is allowing opponents to convert 3rd downs just 32.7 percent of the time. This is just a weird game. Everything on paper points to TCU, but intangibles, the let-down spot, and a few stats point to Tech staying within the number. Hoping someone with more knowledge can shed some more light.

[Beyond the Bets]

These early-season bowl games are incredibly unpredictable, more so this year than in year's past, IMO. I generally feel confident enough to make a play on some of these, but this year has been a pass on most bowl games.

Just because it's on, doesn't mean you have to bet it. If you don't like one side or the other, take the night off and bet one of the other 134 bowls instead.

[JayPrimetown]

In game / halftime may be better options for these early bowl games. It's tough to see how teams respond after weeks off and to specifically see motivation.

[ChiefZilla]

Is it completely square of me to just be waiting for TCU to keep falling so I can grab them at the lowest number possible? I generally lean underdogs, so I'm wondering what I'm missing here, but I love Gary Patterson with time to prepare, and I just don't know if La Tech has the horses to keep up.

Only concerning factor to me is the motivational angle. Is TCU really that upset about not getting a BCS bid? It's much like the Boise St/Arizona St game in that regard.

[Jaeger62]

I think this game is a good teaser type game. You can already tease TCU under a field goal. Do we really see Patterson's team losing straight up? I'm thinking about teasing it down to 2.5 but don't have a feel for which way to go with the Total.... Thoughts on that?

[louiemdj]

I'm not really sold on either team in this game either. Probably should be a stay away game for me. Depends on how the day progresses and what number is available. Would probably lean La Tech if I can get over 10 points.

[SkyBlues42]

(12-21-2011 10:42 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Is it completely square of me to just be waiting for TCU to keep falling so I can grab them at the lowest number possible? I generally lean underdogs, so I'm wondering what I'm missing here, but I love Gary Patterson with time to prepare, and I just don't know if La Tech has the horses to keep up.

Only concerning factor to me is the motivational angle. Is TCU really that upset about not getting a BCS bid? It's much like the Boise St/Arizona St game in that regard.

You think TCU will be more motivated, or less?

I could see them being upset that they didn't get a BCS bid, which team wouldn't be? Maybe this would make them play harder, and try to blow the team out. Make a statement.

[Skating Tripods]

(12-21-2011 03:28 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  

(12-21-2011 10:42 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Is it completely square of me to just be waiting for TCU to keep falling so I can grab them at the lowest number possible? I generally lean underdogs, so I'm wondering what I'm missing here, but I love Gary Patterson with time to prepare, and I just don't know if La Tech has the horses to keep up.

Only concerning factor to me is the motivational angle. Is TCU really that upset about not getting a BCS bid? It's much like the Boise St/Arizona St game in that regard.

You think TCU will be more motivated, or less?

I could see them being upset that they didn't get a BCS bid, which team wouldn't be? Maybe this would make them play harder, and try to blow the team out. Make a statement.

I'm starting to find bowl motivation to be overvalued and overrated. Once the game starts, these kids want to win. Nobody wants to end their college career a loser.

I probably won't play TCU, especially not at 10, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won 34-10 or something like that.

[vegasobie]

problem with the motivation factor is what happens leading up to the game. of course nobody wants to lose and once the pads start popping kids play hard. but have they put in the prep work to be as prepared as possible to execute the gameplan? have they studied the scouting report as well as they did each week during the season??

[Skating Tripods]

(12-21-2011 05:08 PM)vegasobie Wrote:  problem with the motivation factor is what happens leading up to the game. of course nobody wants to lose and once the pads start popping kids play hard. but have they put in the prep work to be as prepared as possible to execute the gameplan? have they studied the scouting report as well as they did each week during the season??

I get that side of it. What I also know is that these are two good coaches who will have their teams focused. I think the motivation factor plays in more with coaches who aren't as well-respected as Sonny Dykes and Gary Patterson. Basically, I don't think a team with a good coach will walk into a game unmotivated.

Really staring down the barrel at taking the under. I'll just wait and see how high the market bets it before I play it.

[Jaeger62]

Thinking of buying LaTech at +9 to go with my TCU -2.5 teaser play. Potential middle. Or wait and hope TCU scores first and get more points on LaTech live betting...

[jimmysingh9]

I would wait and bet in-game. you can get a better # for sure.


Even If LaTech scores first, you should get around LaTech +4 or +5 I would say.

The only scenario that will hurt you is if LaTech goes up 14-0.


You need to determine what is the probability of LaTech building up a big lead in your mind, if you feel it is too risky then take the +9 right now.

If TCU was up 7-0, I still would not hedge because I would like to see who scores next, TCU could open up a lead here and you will not even need to hedge. The only benefit is if you truly believe the middle will hit for you.

[Turnksu]

A lot of money coming on the over. I think TCU puts up a lot of points tonight

[ChiefZilla]

I've decided I'm going to stay away from this game until live betting. The problem is, I haven't exactly decided on a plan.

Do I take La Tech ML at +290 and hope they get off to an early lead, giving me a chance to middle? Or do I stay away from anything pregame and look for a specific opportunity based on what happens early on?

I'm actually fairly inexperienced when it comes to live betting so would appreciate any thoughts/advice you guys have.

[Skating Tripods]

(12-21-2011 05:21 PM)Jaeger62 Wrote:  Thinking of buying LaTech at +9 to go with my TCU -2.5 teaser play. Potential middle. Or wait and hope TCU scores first and get more points on LaTech live betting...

Why buy 9 now when you could have had 12? Or even 10.5 a couple days ago.

Better off looking to middle at halftime than for a full game.

[Jaeger62]

May be a different game.... But did I read that LaTech is without their leading rusher?

[ChiefZilla]

(12-21-2011 05:59 PM)Jaeger62 Wrote:  May be a different game.... But did I read that LaTech is without their leading rusher?

You are correct, sir.

Link: Louisiana Tech's Creer ineligible for bowl game

[Jaeger62]

That can't be helpful

[ChiefZilla]

(12-21-2011 06:27 PM)Jaeger62 Wrote:  That can't be helpful

Certainly not helpful, no. But La Tech seems to be more of a passing offense anyway. And TCU's main weakness on D is in the secondary, so La Tech was likely going to have to beat them through the air as it was.

In addition, the backup RB is a walk-on, but he did rush for 148 yards and three TDs in La Tech's last game of the regular season with the starter out.

All that said, I'm still leaning toward laying the points with TCU tonight.

[bwaters81]

TCU -10. La. Tech is outclassed in this one.