Paying for information/systems.

[oddsok]

Hey SoMo.

Recently I was presented with an opportunity to purchase a system that is apparently back-tested over 3-4 months and will provide plays on the NBA, in particular 1H, 2H and 3Q plays. I am quite tempted to jump on board with this guy, who has been giving out free picks all year with plenty of stats/reasoning to back up his bets. I do trust him, but am still hesitant.

Now usually I'd never entertain the idea of paying for something like this, but he seems different. These aren't just picks, they're situational plays that he claims will hit at an extremely high clip. He won't tell us which plays to make, he will just outline the situations in which his plays can be made. As well as this he says he will mail out opportunities for each day and if they play out, a bet might also present itself.

I feel like I'm paying for knowledge, not picks which makes me feel a little better.

Now I know this guy could be having us all along for a ride, but I just wanted to throw this out there and get your opinion. I understand the % I'd have to hit to break even as well as the risks involved.

In a way this is similar to paying for KenPom's data, no?

Please anyone and everyone chime in and talk me out of this

[Jaybiz773]

(12-17-2011 10:06 PM)oddsok Wrote:  Recently I was presented with an opportunity to purchase

a system that is apparently back-tested over 3-4 months

Please anyone and everyone chime in and talk me out of this

The opportunity is always more beneficial to the seller than the buyer

3-4 months is indicative of NOTHING, other than some marketing mumbo-jumbo

The fact you want to be talked out of it seems to be icing on the cake, this is your primitive brain telling you RUN (ie flight)

Listen to the gut, its usually correct

[@So_Money_Sports]

(12-17-2011 10:06 PM)oddsok Wrote:  Hey SoMo.

Recently I was presented with an opportunity to purchase a system that is apparently back-tested over 3-4 months and will provide plays on the NBA, in particular 1H, 2H and 3Q plays. I am quite tempted to jump on board with this guy, who has been giving out free picks all year with plenty of stats/reasoning to back up his bets. I do trust him, but am still hesitant.

Now usually I'd never entertain the idea of paying for something like this, but he seems different. These aren't just picks, they're situational plays that he claims will hit at an extremely high clip. He won't tell us which plays to make, he will just outline the situations in which his plays can be made. As well as this he says he will mail out opportunities for each day and if they play out, a bet might also present itself.

I feel like I'm paying for knowledge, not picks which makes me feel a little better.

Now I know this guy could be having us all along for a ride, but I just wanted to throw this out there and get your opinion. I understand the % I'd have to hit to break even as well as the risks involved.

In a way this is similar to paying for KenPom's data, no?

Please anyone and everyone chime in and talk me out of this

Hey oddsok,

There are some legitimate services out there, but I think I know who you are referring to here and I would advise against it. I agree with Jay's post that 3-4 months is not a large enough sample size. Also, even if the sample size was large enough to make me look deeper, I'm willing to bet that there will be many layers to the system. For example, a 4-6 point favorite coming off a 11-point win at home playing against a team who is coming off a 4 point straight up dog win blah blah blah. Any system can look great if you keep backtesting and adding multiple layers to it.

Further to Jay's post, I think your gut is already telling you what to do here. Listen to it.

[Whiskeytown]

(12-23-2011 05:40 PM)Jaybiz773 Wrote:  The fact you want to be talked out of it seems to be icing on the cake, this is your primitive brain telling you RUN (ie flight)

Listen to the gut, its usually correct

i guess we should really try to listen to both?