Overrated/Underrated NCAA tournament teams

[SkyBlues42]

We can start a list of teams that are over or underrated.. and possibly discuss (argue) as to why they should or shouldn't be on the list.

I'll start off with...

Overrated: Georgetown (I know Jimmy will agree) and Virginia
Underrated: Vanderbilt and Detroit.

For Detroit, I don't think any team wants to see them in round one.. especially as a 15 seed.

[RyanParrill]

I don't know if it's considered "overrated" but Michigan State and Indiana each lost a guard that may prove to be a fatal blow.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Overrated - Notre Dame. Think they have played their best ball. Brey may have done his best job the year, but never go far in the tourney.
Syracuse - a poor shooting night will doom them as they are a very poor rebounding team.

Underrated - Michigan has a tourney-tested coach, plays the d needed to make a elite eight run.

[SkyBlues42]

(03-08-2012 05:27 PM)RyanParrill Wrote:  I don't know if it's considered "overrated" but Michigan State and Indiana each lost a guard that may prove to be a fatal blow.

I think it works as overrated. Michigan State's seeding will justify that. And if they get stuck playing a team like Detroit (as Lunardi's bracket suggests), the loss will hurt them even more.

The Titans would be a very dangerous 15-seed.

[lincolnduff]

Vandy may be underrated but in the tournament they have been terrible, if teams are physical against them it can really cause problems.

[SkyBlues42]

(03-08-2012 06:06 PM)lincolnduff Wrote:  Vandy may be underrated but in the tournament they have been terrible, if teams are physical against them it can really cause problems.

The last three trips to the NCAA tournament, definitely. But I think that's just a trend. The loss to Richmond last year was almost expected. Can't say the same about losing to Murray State (2010) and Siena (2008).

[Kballa41]

Could a team like Ohio State be considered underrated? Lots of love early on in the season, less than stellar Big 10 season, kind of under the radar for national title talks now.

Overrated: San Diego St and FSU. Could see both teams going down in Rd1.

[JayPrimetown]

I actually think Florida St. is underrated. Great defense and have big shotmakers.

Georgetown is overrated. Seen them lose too many times, not to think that. Louisville may be underrated, but now that they're poised to make the Big East Final... their seed may be where it belongs.

[illadelphia]

Underrated: Temple -- Good Coach with Tournament experience. Team has been playing well down the stretch, (winning 13 of their last 14 games) the only loss was an 82-72 setback to Big 5 rival Saint Joseph’s in the next to last game of the regular season.

[jimmysingh9]

Underrated - Drexel if they get in, Memphis as an 8 seed, New Mexico St/Nevada WAC winner, Xavier as a 12 seed, St Louis if they are 10 seed, Detroit as a 15, Belmont as a 14. UConn depending on seed.

These are obviously off of Lunardi's bracket.


Overrated - (the seed by seed statsitics, like 12 over 5, bet the teams not the seeds), Georgetown, Baylor, UNLV as a 5, Indiana as 4 without Jones, UNC as a 1 without Henson(possibly), Marquette as 3, Notre Dame, Michigan if they are a 3, Wichita St or Creighton if they open favs, Louisville, San Diego St is they are a higher seed, Murray St if they are 6 or better.

Overrated if any of the following teams get in. Miss St, Seton Hall, NW

[SkyBlues42]

You think Nevada is out if they don't win the WAC? I think they have a chance at getting an auto-bid (might be slim, though).

[jimmysingh9]

What they are saying is only one team from the WAC gets in. Personally with the "eye" test I think both teams should be in and would give problems in the the bracket. I like New Mexico St alot and Nevada has beaten them twice already so I think well of Nevada too. NMSt has cooled off a little with their performances vs Fres St the last two times, they might have been complacent but we will see.

[ChiefZilla]

(03-09-2012 01:59 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  You think Nevada is out if they don't win the WAC? I think they have a chance at getting an auto-bid (might be slim, though).

Judging by how all these bubble teams keep losing, it could be a crazy Selection Sunday. I'm kinda hoping we see teams like Iona, Nevada/NMSU, Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, etc, sneak in with a bid now that the bigger conference bubble teams are all sucking. Probably won't happen, though.

[SkyBlues42]

(03-09-2012 02:28 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Judging by how all these bubble teams keep losing, it could be a crazy Selection Sunday. I'm kinda hoping we see teams like Iona, Nevada/NMSU, Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, etc, sneak in with a bid now that the bigger conference bubble teams are all sucking. Probably won't happen, though.

I would like to see that as well. But at the same time.. I don't want to see it happen .

If some of those teams sneak in, they could potentially steal a spot from one of the three futures bets (Xavier).

[TheHandicaper]

(03-09-2012 01:59 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  You think Nevada is out if they don't win the WAC? I think they have a chance at getting an auto-bid (might be slim, though).

Either way, I hope they get in. They're an auto-fade in the tournament for me. They are such bad free throwers, it's mind boggling. I really don't think they make it through the first round.

---

So, overrated:
Nevada
Murray State (I still think they are)
UNLV
SDST
West Virginia
Akron


Underrated:
Detroit
Temple (Yes, I know they lost today)
Saint Louis
St Mary's

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think it is a better tourney with Conference winners like Iona, Nevada, and Oral Roberts over bubble teams like Minn, NC St, NW, etc. At least these teams accomplished something (winning a conference) versus .500 teams who have a hard time winning 3+ games in a row.

[jimmysingh9]

I actually think Temple is getting a little overrated. Outside of beating an average Penn St team in the tourney, they have been one and done's. The last couple of years, I was disgusted by their performances with teams just as good as this one. They played it too safe and ran clock and then they got behind and couldnt play that tempo. I just don't know if this team that seems a little bit more vunerable has changed that.

[SkyBlues42]

(03-09-2012 04:43 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I actually think Temple is getting a little overrated. Outside of beating an average Penn St team in the tourney, they have been one and done's. The last couple of years, I was disgusted by their performances with teams just as good as this one. They played it too safe and ran clock and then they got behind and couldnt play that tempo. I just don't know if this team that seems a little bit more vunerable has changed that.

All fair assessments.. but this year's team is much different. The rely more on their offense than they do defense, which should make them a tougher out, especially in the early rounds.

Last year they ran their offense through Lavoy Allen. It got them to the round of 32.. and they nearly upset San Diego State to go to the Sweet 16.. but their offense was limited to slowing the game down. Now, their guards have even more of a "green light."

I can't think of many teams that have the size at the guard position to match up with Fernandez and Moore. And with Micheal Eric healthy, they have the post presence. Three to four players can burn you on a given night.

They might be slightly overrated, but the loss to UMass should make the Owls more valuable in the NCAA tournament.

[illadelphia]

(03-09-2012 04:43 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I actually think Temple is getting a little overrated. Outside of beating an average Penn St team in the tourney, they have been one and done's. The last couple of years, I was disgusted by their performances with teams just as good as this one. They played it too safe and ran clock and then they got behind and couldnt play that tempo. I just don't know if this team that seems a little bit more vunerable has changed that.

Today's UMASS game exposed the major flaw in Temple this year - the Owls are not really equipped to handle small, speedy guards. Add in an inconsistent shooting effort from outside and you get a close loss.

Depending on Temple's seed and 1st round opponent, they may be susceptible to an upset.

[SkyBlues42]

(03-09-2012 05:29 PM)illadelphia Wrote:  Today's UMASS game exposed the major flaw in Temple this year - the Owls are not really equipped to handle small, speedy guards. Add in an inconsistent shooting effort from outside and you get a close loss.

Depending on Temple's seed and 1st round opponent, they may be susceptible to an upset.

I actually disagree.

They've done well against teams with quick guards, including against a team like Duke. Austin Rivers (12 points, 3-of-11 shooting and Seth Curry (6 points 2-of-5 shooting).

Against UMass, the Owls had 22 turnovers. They were just careless. They basically outperformed the Minutemen in every statistical category except that.

Just about every team is susceptible to a first-round upset, so I can't argue that Temple isn't one of those teams.