Outright underdog winners

[Beyond the Bets]

Of these four opening-week games, which underdog is most likely to win OUTRIGHT and why? Or do you think none of them will?

Wake Forest +7
Syracuse

TCU
Baylor +6.5

Indiana
Ball State +6.5

Colorado +7
Hawaii

[ChiefZilla]

Definitely not Colorado. I know they owned Hawaii last year, but going to Honolulu is an entirely different story.

I'll take Baylor out of those options. TCU has dominated them in the past, but there really isn't as much of a talent gap this year as in previous years. Superior QB, home game, and i think it's on a friday night? Yeah, gimme the Bears..

[SkyBlues42]

Agree with ChiefZilla.. don't think Colorado can get it done on the Island, and Baylor is a nice choice, but still think TCU wins (and covers) in that one.

I'll take Ball State over Indiana.

Both teams have a new head coach and the game is gonna be played on a neutral field (Lucas Oil) so I don't see a clear cut advantage there.

Advantage goes to Ball State, since Indiana lost their starting QB and best defensive player.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-21-2011 12:31 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Agree with ChiefZilla.. don't think Colorado can get it done on the Island, and Baylor is a nice choice, but still think TCU wins (and covers) in that one.

I'll take Ball State over Indiana.

Both teams have a new head coach and the game is gonna be played on a neutral field (Lucas Oil) so I don't see a clear cut advantage there.

Advantage goes to Ball State, since Indiana lost their starting QB and best defensive player.

A post might be in order on first-year head coaches playing non-BCS schools in their opener. I can think of several coaches who have shit themselves in openers, losing outright as favorites, etc.

[SkyBlues42]

I looked up some info in regards to your comment about first time coaches against non-BCS schools.. here's what I found (I broke it down by conference)...

ACC: 5-3 ATS; 9-1 SU
BIG-12: 1-5 ATS; 5-3 SU
BIG EAST: 1-4 ATS; 6-1 SU
BIG TEN: 4-2 ATS; 5-2 SU
PAC-12: 3-4 ATS; 5-3 SU
SEC: 7-1 ATS; 9-0 SU

TOTAL: 21-19 ATS; 39-10 SU

So really, BCS schools (under a new coach) have dominated their opponents in the first game against non-BCS schools SU.

Same can't be said about covering the spread, since they've only won 52.5% of the time.

The SEC seems to have skewed the findings a bit.

If you excluded them, the rest of the conferences (combined) would have a losing record ATS (14-18, 44%)

[Beyond the Bets]

Well, that explains my perception. I lived in Big 12 country for the last five years, and I know I've seen at least a handful of coaches suffer ATS losses in their first game.

(Ron Prince almost lost to Illinois State outright.)

Who was the Big 12 coach who got an ATS win? Dan Hawkins?

[SkyBlues42]

Paul Rhoads, 2009 against North Dakota St. (only covered by 3pts) at 14 point favorites

Also.. I actually included the teams in their current conference.. Colorado in the Pac-12 for example.

If you included them in their previous conferences (Colorado and Nebraska in Big 12)-- numbers would look like this:

ACC: 5-3 ATS; 9-1 SU
BIG-12: 2-6 ATS; 6-4 SU
BIG EAST: 1-4 ATS; 6-1 SU
BIG TEN: 3-2 ATS; 4-2 SU
PAC-12: 3-3 ATS; 5-2 SU
SEC: 7-1 ATS; 9-0 SU

the two wins in the Big-12 would be from Iowa and Nebraska

[Beyond the Bets]

I just decided to look up a few of the Big 12 games. Dan Hawkins' game was a NL (a 19-10 outright loss to Montana State) and Ron Prince's first game (24-23 win vs. Illinois State) also wasn't lined.

Did you include those games?

[SkyBlues42]

Games in which there were NL were recorded for the SU, not the ATS data

[wazzufan]

washington state hasn't covered in six straight season openers. last time they covered was in 2004 in a lucky win against new mexico in a friday night game.

with paul wullf at the helm they've lost 39-13 to oklahoma state as 7 point dogs, they've lost 39-13 to stanford as 17 point dogs and they've lost 65-17 to oklahoma state (again) as 17 point dogs.

this year they're favored by 27 over idaho state. i honestly wouldn't be surprised if wazzu lost.

[SkyBlues42]

Idaho state will prolly look like a pee-wee team compared to their previous season openers. They've played some stiff competition.

Auburn, Wisconsin, Ok. State (2x), Stanford.. that's just brutal.

[ChiefZilla]

(08-21-2011 02:28 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Well, that explains my perception. I lived in Big 12 country for the last five years, and I know I've seen at least a handful of coaches suffer ATS losses in their first game.

I personally enjoyed Turner Gill's loss to North Dakota St. in his debut last year.

[Skating Tripods]

Ball St.'s in a decent spot here. As mentioned above, neutral site with Indiana down last year's starting QB. Ball St. returns 14 of its 17 INTs last season on defense and 21 of 27 passes defensed. If they flood the box and force IU's new QB Kiel to throw the ball to beat them, I imagine they'll have a good shot to win the game.

Add in three new starters on the IU offensive line and the history of new coaches in first games against non-BCS teams as has been discussed, not a bad spot for Ball St. at all.

Ball St.'s new HC brought his entire staff from Elon while IU's staff is made of co-coordinators from schools spread out over the map. Should be a much clearer direction and ideology for BSU. With everyone on the same page and experienced working together, coaching advantage might go BSU despite all of the FBS experience of the IU staff.

[Beyond the Bets]

You seem like a Ball State expert.

[Skating Tripods]

(08-22-2011 01:26 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  You seem like a Ball State expert.

Hah, nah, Phil Steele's mag has been my Bible since I picked it up last month.

I went to Akron. I would offer to be their expert, but it's a depressing job to suggest your alma mater to lose every single week.

[Beyond the Bets]

Hey, as long as they cover...

[Skating Tripods]

(08-22-2011 01:34 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Hey, as long as they cover...

Most of the time, I'm hoping that they don't.

I bit on the +450 or whatever it was against Ball St. last year when they lost in 2OT. In the first OT, Akron scored first and then got Ball St. into a 4th & 22 for the win. Ball St. got a TD pass and then won in the next OT.

They were +29 the previous week against Temple and lost by 30 (I had Temple). The next week was their FU to me.

That and the 50k I owe them for an education.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-22-2011 01:39 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  That and the 50k I owe them for an education.

AT AKRON!

[Skating Tripods]

(08-22-2011 01:54 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(08-22-2011 01:39 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  That and the 50k I owe them for an education.

AT AKRON!

That includes the education I received by living in a dorm that was across from a bank that was subject to an armed robbery at least once a semester. You know, you pay for real life experiences in college, too.

Akron is like a training ground for inner-city Detroit I think.

[Jgisland]

(08-21-2011 12:01 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Of these four opening-week games, which underdog is most likely to win OUTRIGHT and why? Or do you think none of them will?

Wake Forest +7
Syracuse

TCU
Baylor +6.5

Indiana
Ball State +6.5

Colorado +7
Hawaii

I think Colorado has a very legitimate shot to win this game. Hawaii has ZERO returning O linemen against CU's sold D line and LB's. If CU can get pressure on Moniz CU could outright win this game. Hawaii only has 3 offensive starters returning, they have virtually no experience @RB and limited experience @ WR.

I am fully and painfully aware of Colorado's recent road troubles, but this is a new regime and full attention is being put on this game to end the road losing streak from the onset. The mentality and intensity around practices has completely changed from a year ago. Players are being held accountable, mediocrity from the coaches is no longer tolerated. CU will lose a plenty of games this year, I am just not sure this is going to be one of them.