NHL Western Conference Finals betting edge

[RickRude]

Here is a breakdown of Kings/Coyotes for anyone looking to bet it.

Series price Coyotes +145, LA -165

When I look at the series price my first inclination is that LA is getting too much respect. When I cap this series I think LA should be about a -130 favorite. I know they've been dominant, but if we take a look at the Vancouver series we can make the argument that Vancouver outplayed them in games 3,4, and 5 and could have easily stretched that series to 7 with a bounce that they didn't get, but the Kings did get. If the Kings beat Vancouver in 7 and then St. Louis in 5 do we still view them the same way? In Phoenix, LA is looking at a mirror image of themselves. They'll play defense first and then try to bury any chances and watch their goalie erase the few defensive mistakes they make.

LA's big advantage in the first two series was that St. Louis and Vancouver were relying on their top 2 lines for scoring. Once LA effectively took that away there was nowhere else to go. Phoenix will not be relying soley on the Whitney and Doan lines. LA's rotating 4 lines shouldn't have as much of an effect on PHX as it did the previous two teams due to the Coyotes willingness to not shorten the bench. I'm also interested to see how LA will react to a game where Mike Smith goes bonkers and stops everything. Because that game will happen at least once in this series.

For PHX to win this series I think they need to get some help from Quick as they did from Rinne and Corey Crawford. The Coyotes got seem cheapies from those goalies and, in turn, that gave them some confidence that they could score. Quick will have to be very good again, because Phoenix has shown the ability to turn turnovers into goals. Quick has been outstanding and can really snuff out any Phoenix momentum right from the gate.

Betting angles

If you're inclined to play LA, but are scared off by the price, I suggest two things, hope they lose game 1 OR play Jonathan Quick's Conn Smythe odds at +300. If LA wins this Cup Quick will almost be a lock to win Conn Smythe and so if you want you can hedge in the Finals and lock in a good profit. It should be a better profit then at -165.

Another thing to look at for individual game props. The Coyotes are giving up a whopping 36 shots a game. By far the most in the playoffs. But a lot of that is due to the fact the Coyotes have been in front so they have been getting bombarded. Phoenix goes stretches where it looks like the other team has 10 guys on the ice. But during the year these teams played games very close to the vest. Only 3 times did a team get over 30 shots in a game. That's out of 12 possible times. I would look at playing a lot of individual unders in shots especially at the price being offered on some of them. Even at 4.5 for the under in goals I would be looking at playing the under. It is going to be a series where 4 or 5 scoring chances in a game is a lot.

[Beyond the Bets]

(05-13-2012 12:13 PM)RickRude Wrote:  If you're inclined to play LA, but are scared off by the price, I suggest two things, hope they lose game 1 OR play Jonathan Quick's Conn Smythe odds at +300. If LA wins this Cup Quick will almost be a lock to win Conn Smythe and so if you want you can hedge in the Finals and lock in a good profit.

You're pretty damn sharp. You for sure think he's a lock?

[RickRude]

(05-13-2012 12:19 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(05-13-2012 12:13 PM)RickRude Wrote:  If you're inclined to play LA, but are scared off by the price, I suggest two things, hope they lose game 1 OR play Jonathan Quick's Conn Smythe odds at +300. If LA wins this Cup Quick will almost be a lock to win Conn Smythe and so if you want you can hedge in the Finals and lock in a good profit.

You're pretty damn sharp. You for sure think he's a lock?

I do. History shows that outside of goalies Conn Smythe winners are usually dominant forwards, stalwart defensive leaders (Niedermayer, Lidstrom, Stevens), or some sort of clutch guy that overshadows a goalie (Claude Lemieux, Brad Richards). The Kings don't have any one as of yet that fits that profile or even a "career achievement" candidate (Those options would be Shane Doan or Marty Brodeur this year I would think). No forward on LA has more than 11 points. Can Dustin Brown/Kopitar/Mike Richards go bonkers and score 3 OT winning goals and carry the team through the next two rounds? Sure. But I find it unlikely. If LA wins the Cup it will be because Quick gets them there, not because Mike Richards turns into 1996 Joe Sakic, IMO. In the year of the goalie, the last one standing I think wins it.

To me the Conn Smythe is coming from this group of players

Quick, Dustin Brown (best chance other than Quick), Lundqvist, Brad Richards, Kovalchuk, Brodeur (sentimentality), Mike Smith, Shane Doan (everyone loves him).

If anyone else wins it besides that group I will be surprised.

[Skating Tripods]

You're definitely going to give yourself a good hedging chance taking Quick or Smith for the MVP. Have to think Brad Richards or Martin Brodeur in the East. If Brodeur gets to the Cup and wins it, he'll be voted the Conn Smythe as a lifetime achievement award.

[ChicosBailBonds]

(05-13-2012 12:19 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(05-13-2012 12:13 PM)RickRude Wrote:  If you're inclined to play LA, but are scared off by the price, I suggest two things, hope they lose game 1 OR play Jonathan Quick's Conn Smythe odds at +300. If LA wins this Cup Quick will almost be a lock to win Conn Smythe and so if you want you can hedge in the Finals and lock in a good profit.

You're pretty damn sharp. You for sure think he's a lock?

If they wen the cup, yes.

[the dude]

I'm on Phoenix (+102) and the Over (+161) tonight.

I think you're right about LA being a little overrated, Rick. So far they've been the underdog in both series. Now, we'll see how they'll play as being the favourite. I think the week off will hurt them too. I don't think we'll see the intensity they've shown so far in Game 1 from them. Also, it was a pick 'em earlier today and now it looks like the money is coming in on LA.

As for the Over, with all the talk about how great the goalies have been so far, I think we'll see some goals in this one and with the odds for the over at +161, I just had to take it.

[the dude]

Game 1 Recap - LA 4, PHO 2 (LA -116, Over +161)

The Kings looked mighty good last night, winning their six straight road playoff game. The Kings are now 6-1 when scoring first in these playoffs. Those with 28-1 future tickets on them should be feeling pretty, pretty, pretty good today. LA threw everything at Phoenix, outshooting the Coyotes 48-27 (the Kings also saw 25 of their shots headed towards the net blocked). All but two Kings players had at least one shot on goal. Very good team effort minus Jeff Carter.

As for Phoenix, they're going to need Mike Smith to basically shut out LA like we saw him do to Chicago if they're going to have a chance in this series. The D was uncharacteristically bad in Game 1. They gave up way too many odd man rushes and looked to be missing Aucoin. Their young d-men looked as inexperienced as you'd expect. Upfront, their forwards couldn't muster many good scoring chances and, like predicted, their centremen couldn't hold their own in the faceoff dot, losing 40 of 70 faceoffs.

I wouldn't consider Quick a lock to win the Conn Smythe for LA if they win the Cup just yet. Dustin Brown continues to make a LA a better team and came through with the game winning tally in the 3rd.

Looking ahead to Game 2, I expect LA to be a -125 or so favourite and we'll see both teams tighten up defensive. Game 1 was very wide open.

[RickRude]

Dustin Brown is in my group of potential Conn Smythe winners. Brown at 6-1 is a pretty good value right now. He is on fire and a plus 11 in the playoffs. Not to mention he's also the Captain which will give him a closer look. I still think LA is winning the Cup on the back of Quick, but would not be shocked to see Brown get it if they win.

More disconcerting for Phoenix is that they basically got two gifts from LA (The goal from the blue line and the turnover behind the net) and still didn't win. Phoenix's D is way too slow to contend with the LA forecheck. They are going to need their top lines to control the puck because their D can't handle LA's top lines for that long a stretch. If that doesn't happen this series is going to be over in 5 at the most.