NHL West Semis Series Prices

[JetsMetsRangers]

Discuss

[Beyond the Bets]

Boy, you did a fantastic job of facilitating this one.

Here are the series prices currently posted.



I like both favorites but am not convinced that both will win, therefore I won't be taking 'em. Would much rather see the Blues or Preds fall behind 1-0 and then take a stab.

[JetsMetsRangers]

(04-25-2012 11:09 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Boy, you did a fantastic job of facilitating this one.

Here are the series prices currently posted.



I like both favorites but am not convinced that both will win, therefore I won't be taking 'em. Would much rather see the Blues or Preds fall behind 1-0 and then take a stab.

Haha sorry, that was a poor job on my part.

[RickRude]

Was going to write about this so might as well put it in here.

Like Nashville and LA. I'll go over why.

Nashville -165

Let's look at the series both teams played.

Nashville was better than Detroit. They outplayed them for almost the whole series (maybe not game 4), their goaltending was better, and they shut down two of the best offense players in the game for 5 games. I was mildly surprised at how efficient Nashville was with the scoring chances. Some of that is that their forwards have good skill, but some was also Detroit's D being slow and Howard not making big saves in timely spots. But for the most part the Predators deserved to win in 5 and they did.

Chicago was skating rings around Phoenix most of their series. And let's call it what it is. Corey Crawford was bad. He was so bad that Joel Quenneville thought of starting Ray Emery. Ray Emery! The same Ray Emery that had a 900 save percentage and a 2.81 GAA. That Ray Emery! Phoenix won 3 of 5 OT games and the two in Chicago were some terrible goals let in. This is not to say Phoenix didn't play well. They did. They took advantage of Chicago's mistakes. Mike Smith was superhuman in big stretches. But if they played Chicago again and played like they did (trying to take advantage of mistakes, relying on Mike Smith) I would take Chicago every time.

Nashville is a bad matchup for Phoenix. The Nashville D isn't going to stand there and let Phoenix walk through the slot unmolested or stand at the side of the net and bang in rebounds. Weber and Suter will be nasty. Pekka Rinne is a vezina finalist. He is not Corey Crawford. I don't expect Phoenix to get the same amount of cheap goals they got in the Chicago series and in a series that went to 5 OT games those cheapies were winners. Disclaimer: Of Course Mike Smith could go ballistic again and steal another series, but the where are the goals coming from?

As for LA

St. Louis got a really good matchup with San Jose. San Jose is soft. They won't dig for pucks in the corners and when they actually did get in front, Halak and Elliott didn't give them anything. San Jose provided little to no resistance for St. Louis. The Blues know the Sharks couldn't score on them and the Blues grinded them down. For that reason LA is bad for them. The Kings have top end talent in Richards, Brown, Kopitar, and Doughty. They also have top end guys willing to stick their face in the corners. LA outbattled Vancouver and it's not like the Canucks were sieves defensively. Luongo and Schneider were very good in that series. The Kings straight up outworked them to get those chances. St. Louis played 4 games against LA in the regular year and scored 3 goals. 3 in 4 games. LA is built to beat teams 1-0. That's exactly what St. Louis is built for too. Out of the other matchups they could have gotten I think this is by far the worst one for them. LA isn't going to give up if St. Louis gets tough with them and start trying to be cute. They'll just try to outwork them and then they have their own equalizer in Quick. Who likes 1-0 quadruple OT games?

[JetsMetsRangers]

Good write up Rick, per usual. I may bet LA now. The thing is I also think Nashville will beat Phoenix, but like BTB, I am hoping PHO wins Game One so the odds are better. -165 isn't much of a play, agree?

[RickRude]

(04-26-2012 10:43 AM)JetsMetsRangers Wrote:  Good write up Rick, per usual. I may bet LA now. The thing is I also think Nashville will beat Phoenix, but like BTB, I am hoping PHO wins Game One so the odds are better. -165 isn't much of a play, agree?

It's an interesting decision, but if you think Nashville is better (like I do) then what's to say you even get the -165 price again? If Nashville wins game 1 you have to have Phoenix win the next two. I guess you could wait, but I'm not. I'm locking in on Nashville and if they get down will back up the original bet with another one on the Preds. But I'm also the same person that thought Vancouver and NJ were the two gimme series of the first round. Whoops.

[Skating Tripods]

Nashville. Phoenix has already gotten that monkey off their back of not winning a playoff series. Now Nashville has to get past the second round, that's their monkey. That PHX/CHI series could have easily gone either way and, as RickRude said, PHX was able to catch advantage of Crawford and that's an advantage that they won't have with NSH. Rinne's a stud.

The value is on LA in the other series, but I think you'll be able to play both sides at better prices. LA may win Game 1, but if they go home with a split, there should be value on STL if they lose Game 3. In a series that'll feature a lot of 2-1, 1-0, 3-1 (empty netter) games, I can't imagine this is a short series. I think you can play back and forth and guarantee profit. So I'd start with taking LA and then hope they win Game 1. I still think it'll be 1-1 going back to Hollywood.

[RickRude]

Another reason to like the Kings to battle St. Louis. This is their CAPTAIN.

""He's pretty much always a mess," says Rob Blake, a manager in the NHL Department of Player Safety who preceded Brown as the Kings' captain. "I'll see him at the rink. Teeth out. Black eye. The reason he gets that way is the way he hits. He comes at guys straight on, face-to-face. He goes right through guys, which makes him more susceptible to errant sticks or elbows."

Somehow I don't envision Joe Thornton doing that for the Sharks.

[ChicosBailBonds]

(04-26-2012 11:48 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Nashville. Phoenix has already gotten that monkey off their back of not winning a playoff series. Now Nashville has to get past the second round, that's their monkey. That PHX/CHI series could have easily gone either way and, as RickRude said, PHX was able to catch advantage of Crawford and that's an advantage that they won't have with NSH. Rinne's a stud.

The value is on LA in the other series, but I think you'll be able to play both sides at better prices. LA may win Game 1, but if they go home with a split, there should be value on STL if they lose Game 3. In a series that'll feature a lot of 2-1, 1-0, 3-1 (empty netter) games, I can't imagine this is a short series. I think you can play back and forth and guarantee profit. So I'd start with taking LA and then hope they win Game 1. I still think it'll be 1-1 going back to Hollywood.

The two teams played 4 games (LA winning series 3-1). The real story is there were 11 total goals in 4games, including a 1-0 shootout win. I expect to see 4.5's as the series goes on.

[ChiefZilla]

I went ahead and played LA +145 per the advice in this thread. I'm not much of a hockey bettor, but it seems like there will be a chance to lock in profit at some point. We'll see.

[JayPrimetown]

Played the Kings as well earlier in the week. As CZ said above, definitely a chance to lock in profit later in this series if need be.

[SkyBlues42]

Doesn't hurt that So Money thought the Kings would make it to the championship if they got by the Canucks.

[bracks]

I am really hoping Preds lose Game 1. I love the under in that game, along with the under 1st per. Don't care about juice, it's that way in Game 1 for a reason.

I also think it would be wise to take Preds to win Conference +225. The Kings are next with +295. If they played next re LA would be small dogs. Could hedge out for profit, or wait a game maybe get bigger payout.

[seneca15krookk]

I have reccomended using this strategy and i am now 4-0 employing it in these playoffs

the strategy is to bet the team that gets down by either 1 or 2 goals during the intermission on the puckline at +1.5 you can get these teams at plus money sometimes or with limited juice due to being down by a goal or two.

As beyondthebets wrote earlier in an article that the puckline was covering at 92% but taking the puckline pregame laying all that juice doesnt seem worth it. It seems like a smart strategy to bet the team that gets down on the puckline knowing that they should cover at a high percentage and you get it at low price.

I just played the preds -175 +1.5 entering the third period. this is the most juice i have layed doing this strategy but seems worth it

[ChicosBailBonds]

Smith steals another game for Phoenix.

[Skating Tripods]

(04-28-2012 07:21 AM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  Smith steals another game for Phoenix.

Sergei Kostitsyn winding up and firing that puck down for icing in OT may have been the stupidest thing I've seen this postseason. Had time and space, had options, and does that.

Ensuing faceoff nets the game winner.

Brutal awareness. Barry Trotz might have gotten so mad that his neck popped out.

[RickRude]

(04-28-2012 08:13 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(04-28-2012 07:21 AM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  Smith steals another game for Phoenix.

Sergei Kostitsyn winding up and firing that puck down for icing in OT may have been the stupidest thing I've seen this postseason. Had time and space, had options, and does that.

Ensuing faceoff nets the game winner.

Brutal awareness. Barry Trotz might have gotten so mad that his neck popped out.

Someone tell me where that rabbit's foot is that Phoenix is hiding. Nashville dominates the last 40 minutes and Phoenix scores off of a blocked pass, A goal Rinne almost never gives up, and a ridiculous icing in overtime. Unreal.

That Boedker play was nice though

[the dude]

The Kostitsyn brothers are two of the biggest clowns in the NHL. That play wasn't surprising at all.

You have to love playoff hockey though. Even icings matter.

Nashville looked great in the final 40 minutes of the game. They were fresh and had all the energy. Once again, Mike Smith was brilliant when he needed to be.

The good news, Nashville is -105 to win the series now. I expect Rinne to be really sharp in Game 2 and steal home ice advantage.

[ChicosBailBonds]

On the under again in Phoenix. No way can they give Nashville PP chances (top PP in the league).

[ChicosBailBonds]

(04-28-2012 08:13 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(04-28-2012 07:21 AM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  Smith steals another game for Phoenix.

Sergei Kostitsyn winding up and firing that puck down for icing in OT may have been the stupidest thing I've seen this postseason. Had time and space, had options, and does that.

Ensuing faceoff nets the game winner.

Brutal awareness. Barry Trotz might have gotten so mad that his neck popped out.

That was a brutal play.