NHL Tuesday

[illadelphia]

Devils (+115) @ Flyers (-125); Total 5.5 [o+135, u-150]

Flyers are without Giroux due to a 1 game suspension. Giroux has been the Flyers best player thus far and this is a big loss but not as big as one would think. With the exception of few moments in Game 3, the Devils have dominated the Flyers. Even with Giroux in the lineup for Game 4, the Flyers went 16:23 without a shot. It was even worse in the 2nd period of game 2, when the Flyers didn't a shot in the first 18:33 of the period.

With Giroux out of the lineup, Zac Rinaldo is expected to make his series debut. Nobody can fill the place of the NHL playoff points leader but Rinaldo is a penalty magnet and fair or unfair the refs have an eye on him at all times. This is not the game for Rinaldo to take a stupid penalty but it is almost expected from him. Hopefully he can provide a bit a spark and fresh legs to what looks like a tired Flyers offense.

Some good news for the Flyers is that it seems defenseman Andrej Meszaros will return to the lineup tonight. Meszaros hasn't played since March 1 after having back surgery on March 21.

The Flyers did not practice on Monday. They had a meeting at their practice facility and were given the day off. This might have been in response to comments made by the players that they were "panicking" and the team needed to "relax" and "have more confidence" in their game.

If the Flyers want to win tonight the need to play as a TEAM, a single unit with a single purpose. The Flyers need to slow the game down and coordinate their offensive and defensive zone presence; and they need to press the Devils to the outside, and keep them against the boards without allowing the Devils to cycle the puck so freely.

Too often in this series I see the Flyers either dump-and-chase into the offensive zone or they go cross-ice with a pass and one forward gains the zone -- where he is quickly hammered by at least 2 Devils players. It is much the same on defense, where the Devils seem to be playing five-on-one hockey in the Flyers' zone.

The Flyers are still playing like they did against the Penguins where it was more important to isolate their superstars, and beat the Penguins at "their" own game. The Devils, lacking such superstars, play more of a team game at both ends of the ice, and they're running circles around the Flyers.

This is a tough game to pick a side and might be a better "in-game" play. As for the total, I guess the reason for the heavy juice on the Under is due to Giroux being out of an already anemic Flyers offense. However, I think the OVER is a decent play tonight because the Flyers (in theory) will get more pucks on net and despite playing better, Bryz frequently gives up a soft goal (or 4). So those things, coupled with a likely empty net goal late should get over the 5.5 total.

[RickRude]

Great breakdown. I do think the Flyers win tonight because they are due to play a good game and I can see a small letdown from a Devil team that has played over their head. But at -145 I'm not playing any team at that price in these playoffs.

The one bet I like is the Flyers over 29.5 shots. The teams that have faced elimination on home ice in these playoffs have really come out well and put the pedal down. There have been 7 games in these playoffs where home teams have faced elimination and those teams are averaging 32 shots a game. Philly has really got to take it to NJ early.

[illadelphia]

I like that prop a lot RickRude. I agree that -145 is an absurd price for any team in the 2012 NHL playoffs.

Hope the Flyers respond to the loss of Giroux tonight the same way NJ did when Kovalchuk missed Game 2. Hell, even Pittsuburgh played better when Neal was suspended in the last series. The only downside to Giroux's play thus far is that it seems everyone was waiting for him to do something. Now someone else needs to provide a spark. Briere would be my choice.

[RickRude]

On cue, Rinaldo takes a horrific penalty at the end of the third. Devils with chances upon chances to extend the lead, I added a third period over 1.5 at -115. Flyers have to start opening it up which should lead to a bunch of chances for both teams.