NHL Totals - bet the under!

[KepowOb]

I know hockey isn't the most popular sport here, but there are a handful of people who seem to talk about it regularly, and I thought this info was pretty interesting.

This morning I read over at covers that unders had been hitting at close to 60% over the last month (I can't find the article now). I have been betting totals more than anything else in the NHL recently, and almost everyone of them was an Under (in the last week I have 15 total and 1st period total bets, with 14 of them being unders, and a return of 44.8%! (granted, small sample size)).

So with that, I wanted to look into goal scoring in the NHL on average, and before I got around to that, I stumbled across this article at Leftwinglock, which I found really interesting.

For those who don't want to bother clicking (they have a nice chart that breaks all this down), scoring has been on a decline ever since the lockout, and it would seem the main reason is they're calling a lot less penalties every season (PP% is relatively steady, while EVgoals/total goals is on a major rise). In all those, it looks like they'll be almost 200 goals less scored this season to last, and there has been a drop off of between 100-200 goals a season since 2008-2009.

I did notice today's card had a majority of the totals are sitting at 5 instead of 5.5, and I don't think this is anything new, so obviously the books are realizing this too... but I think there is still good value here. Some teams (Kings would be the best example) will have value on the under pretty much every game (they're 11-30 O\U on the season).

All this is to say, currently you can make money blindly betting under in the NHL, and if you pick your spots you can really make some good profits.

[The Peoples Champ]

Disclaimer: I haven't read the post in great detail, nor the links. But isn't it curious that the under has been hitting at such a high rate, probably abnormally so, and wouldn't it be likely that regressions are possible? Haven't looked at this closely as like you, I've found more than my fair share of unders, but they don't always just jump out, either, and I think saying you can blindly bet totals, or anything for that matter, is misleading, because regression is bound to take place sooner or later, right?

[DOP]

be careful with this KePow. Scoring was UP in the NFL during the season and that died off significantly. Usually, be the time a trend becomes trendy, it's too late.

The NBA unders were dominant to start the season and now it's been overs.

TPC said the key words: regression to the norm, which is 50/50 o/u.

[KepowOb]

I'm not saying to blindly bet unders, even though you probably can at the moment, but if you look at the trends, it's not on this season alone, it's been going on since the lockout ended. Penalties are being called less every season since the lockout, and it's driving scoring down, season after season (there were over 14000 power plays in 2005-2006, there were less than 9000 last season) 2008-2009 was the only season since 2005 that actually had an increase in goals when compared to the season before.

Every other year has had a drop off of at least 100 goals from the previous season. This isn't a trend that's happening this year that should revert back to the norm, it's a long lasting trend since the lockout.

Again, no one should blindly bet based on any trend, and maybe my title and some of my wording was misleading, but if you pay attention to matchups and starting goalies, you should be able to find several good under spots a week.

[The Peoples Champ]

(02-09-2012 12:52 PM)KepowOb Wrote:  I'm not saying to blindly bet unders, even though you probably can at the moment, but if you look at the trends, it's not on this season alone, it's been going on since the lockout ended. Penalties are being called less every season since the lockout, and it's driving scoring down, season after season (there were over 14000 power plays in 2005-2006, there were less than 9000 last season) 2008-2009 was the only season since 2005 that actually had an increase in goals when compared to the season before.

Every other year has had a drop off of at least 100 goals from the previous season. This isn't a trend that's happening this year that should revert back to the norm, it's a long lasting trend since the lockout.

Again, no one should blindly bet based on any trend, and maybe my title and some of my wording was misleading, but if you pay attention to matchups and starting goalies, you should be able to find several good under spots a week.

Could not agree with this more.

I usually wait till dailyfaceoff.com posts all or most of the confirmed goalies, which I think is a superb service, and then peak at the match-ups, and like KEP said, you can find a lot of under value on a given night, you just can't assume every game that meets X criteria has under written all over it just because the trends point that way.