NHL Playoff odds

[RickRude]

Aside from March Madness this is my favorite time of the year with the NHL playoffs starting. Not sure how many NHL guys we have here, but might as well get a thread started. Here are the series prices from BOL.

Flyers +165
Penguins -190

Red Wings +105
Predators -125

Kings +160
Canucks -180

Senators +195
Rangers -225

Capitals +190
Bruins -220

Sharks +135
Blues -155

Blackhawks -120
Coyotes +100

Devils -180
Panthers +160

Right off the bat. I like Phoenix at +100. Phoenix is getting no respect due to winning a pathetic Pacific division, but Mike Smith is on fire right now. Corey Crawford is playing well for the Hawks too so the series will be tight low scoring and if that's the case I'll take the dog with home ice. Toews is still iffy and even if he does play hasn't played in two months. Coyotes will make Chicago grind it out. If Chicago doesn't battle they will lose this series.

The Senators at plus 195 are going to be a play for me too. The Rangers had all sorts of issues with the Sens speed in the regular season. Also Ottawa is the one team that will battle tooth and nail for 7 games like NY does. Spezza always gives the Rangers problems and for as good as the Ranger D has been this season they aren't a quick group outside of Del Zotto so the Sens will attempt to go wide on them. I expect the Sens to split at the Garden to start which will give options to buy out of this bet later on.

I will be parlaying Vancouver, New Jersey and a third team (most likely Boston) since I don't see any way the Canucks or Devils get upended. Quick may make Vancouver nervous, but the Kings can't score so I doubt it matters much. The Panthers are the worst playoff team I can remember.

The Flyers are interesting. The price is so big and the margin between these teams is so small that I think something is up. I will do more research and if I play it will take Philly.

Here are the cup odds

07:05 PM 8002 Boston Bruins +900
8006 Chicago Blackhawks +1600
8010 Detroit Red Wings +1200
8012 Florida Panthers +3200
8013 Los Angeles Kings +1800
8016 Nashville Predators +1200
8017 New Jersey Devils +2400
8019 New York Rangers +550
8020 Ottawa Senators +3700
8021 Philadelphia Flyers +1400
8022 Phoenix Coyotes +3700
8023 Pittsburgh Penguins +350
8024 San Jose Sharks +1800
8025 St. Louis Blues +750
8028 Vancouver Canucks +550
8029 Washington Capitals +2500

I'm playing Phoenix here again due to Smith and if they win they would get St. Louis or possibly Nashville. Two teams that will play defensive hockey also. IMO the Pens odds are ridiculously low. They would have to beat Philly, the Rangers, and Boston to just make the finals. The final two on the road. Makes no sense. This is the same team that dumped two games to the Islanders to end the year when they could have won the PResident's trophy. I understand they have the most firepower left, but they have been extremely spotty defensively this past month.

Fun Fact. Since the lockout no team whose goalie played more than 62 regular season games has won the cup. That would eliminate Nashville, LA, San Jose, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, and Ottawa. Soley based on that fact I'm taking the Devils also at 24-1. Brodeur is rested. They've played great down the stretch and they have a game changer in Kovalchuk. Combine that with the easiest matchup of round 1 and you give yourself a shot.

[illadelphia]

(04-09-2012 02:35 PM)RickRude Wrote:  Flyers +165
Penguins -190

The Flyers are interesting. The price is so big and the margin between these teams is so small that I think something is up. I will do more research and if I play it will take Philly.

Good thread RickRude

I am surprised by that disparity as well. I was discounting the Pens home ice advantage since this past Saturday's win over the Flyers was the first time the Pens have beaten Philly in the Consol Energy Center. The Flyers were 5-0 (now 5-1) in the Penguins' new home despite the Penguins going 29-10-2 overall at home this year.

However, I read this today and it might help explain at least some of the disparity:
"Despite the Flyers' success at the new igloo, the home-ice advantage likely makes Penguins the favorites in Vegas. The Crosby-Malkin era Pens are 6-2 in playoffs series in which they have home ice, including convincing series wins over the Flyers in the 2009 first round and 2008 conference finals."

Also, the Flyers have a few more injury issues than do the Pens...the main one being 2nd line center Danny Briere. The Flyers got some good news today when Briere - who suffered an upper-back contusion on April 1 - was back on the ice with his teammates in their first preparation practice for Pittsburgh.

Few other nuggets on this series I read today:
*The Penguins tend to stay out of the box, ranking 19th in the league in penalty minutes. But that all changes when they play the Flyers. Pittsburgh's average of 10.73 penalty minutes jumps to more than 19 against the orange and black.

*The Penguins lead the NHL in goals with an average of 3.33 per game. And since Crosby returned to the lineup on March 15, they have averaged a ridiculous 4.5 goals-per-game.


I will be researching this series more and will add anything else I might find. I am interested to see what your research shows big Rick

[RickRude]

Well, Van Riemsdyk is most likely out this entire series which hurts. I thought he would be back. The goalie situation is really what is making this number that high. Bobrovsky until Saturday had never lost at Pittsburgh and Laviolette hasn't announced who's playing yet. Bryzgalov has been good down the stretch outside the Ranger game.

The playoff history means nothing to me. They last played in 2009 and this Flyer team is much better than that version. Giroux, Hartnell, and Jagr give them a scary line to counter Pittsburgh. Philly is not afraid of Pitt which is half the battle. Going to be tough to pull the trigger, but those odds are too juicy for me to not take Philly.

[Weebay]

The winner of Pit/Phil wins the eastern conference imo. Should be interesting to see how Malkin and Crosby play in this postseason considering they did not play in 2011 playoffs. Philly not having a clear cut number one goalie scares me off of playing them. I like the depth and experience from Pittsburgh, especially with Marc Andre Fleury in net. I look for a big series from Jordan Staal, dude plays incredible in the post season. If I were to play philly, I would hope for a loss in game 1 and then play them to win series after game 1.

[RickRude]

Besides Philly's goaltending this series comes down to one other thing. Can Philly control the Pitt powerplay? They did during the season as Pitt only went 3-25 or something. And Pitt took more penalties than Philly did.

One thing to watch for is who Laviolette dresses. If he plays clowns like Rinaldo and Jody Shelly Philly will lose. Those guys are black holes offensively and provide nothing. If they are in the lineup Flyer fans should be screaming. Anybody is an upgrade over them.

[Beyond the Bets]

From the main page, here is an odds compare table.

[Beyond the Bets]

Here is the same table, with the best value on each team highlighted. Apologies to folks who have access to Pinnacle, but since I don't and am insanely jealous, I just ignored them.

I'm sure they have the best odds on every team.

[SkyBlues42]

(04-09-2012 09:41 PM)Weebay Wrote:  The winner of Pit/Phil wins the eastern conference imo. Should be interesting to see how Malkin and Crosby play in this postseason considering they did not play in 2011 playoffs. Philly not having a clear cut number one goalie scares me off of playing them. I like the depth and experience from Pittsburgh, especially with Marc Andre Fleury in net. I look for a big series from Jordan Staal, dude plays incredible in the post season. If I were to play philly, I would hope for a loss in game 1 and then play them to win series after game 1.

If you're that confident that the winner of the series wins the Eastern Conferece.. couldn't you place a wager on the Flyers to win the series, and the Penguins to win the Eastern Conference? Or the other way around.. Penguins to win series, Flyers to win Eastern Conference.

Not sure if they offer those props.

According to So_Money.. he seems to think the same about the Kings/Canucks series. Winner has a really good chance of winning the Western Conference.

[illadelphia]

(04-09-2012 10:26 PM)RickRude Wrote:  Besides Philly's goaltending this series comes down to one other thing. Can Philly control the Pitt powerplay? They did during the season as Pitt only went 3-25 or something. And Pitt took more penalties than Philly did.

Exactly. With such evenly matched teams, special teams will be crucial. The teams are tied for the 5th best Power Play in the league, but Pittsburgh has a decided advantage on the Penalty Kill. Pittsburgh ranked 3rd in the NHL while the Flyers came in at 17th.


I think too much is being made of the Flyer's goalie situation. (It feels strange to write that after being subjected to the goalie merry-go-round since Hextall )

Bryzgalov was a complete Bryz-aster for much of the 1st half of the year but he seems to have pulled his head from his ass since March. That is until he chipped the bone in his foot. The 2 games he played since then don't concern me. I know he got burned for 5 goals against NYR but the team was completely outplayed and 3 of them were PP goals. The following game against Buffalo he was solid in the win with 25 saves and allowing only 1 goal.

I think the Flyer's goalie history, Bryz's chipped foot and Bob's impressive numbers against the Penguins are all combined to make the goalie issue bigger than necessary. Bryz played 2 games against the Penguins this season (both in Philly) and was very impressive in both, getting the win each time with 25 and 38 save performances, resulting in a .926 and .950 save percentage. If the Flyers get the Bryzgalov from the month of March they will be very difficult for the Pens (or anyone else) to beat.

Quote:One thing to watch for is who Laviolette dresses. If he plays clowns like Rinaldo and Jody Shelly Philly will lose. Those guys are black holes offensively and provide nothing. If they are in the lineup Flyer fans should be screaming. Anybody is an upgrade over them.

Completely agree about Shelly & Rinaldo...both have no business being on the ice in a playoff series. Ditto for Marc-Andre Bourdon. Thankfully Grossmann seems to be healthy and ready to go which should land Bourdon on the bench where he belongs. Flyers will need Grossmann's blueline consistency.

[Skating Tripods]

The fact that the Panthers are a division champ with home ice, and quite frankly, a playoff team, is a joke. They're 6 games under .500. The third point for the OT loser is terrible.

Anyway, I think Chicago's in some trouble. They gave up 170 goals at 5-on-5 (more than Columbus and Edmonton). Granted, they scored 172, and Phoenix is in the middle of the pack in goals against at 5-on-5, but I think a lot of this series will be played at even strength. Phoenix was also 31-1 when leading after two. Of course, there's also the Toews factor. How effective can he be? That would change the dynamic of this series if he plays well early...if he plays at all.

Interesting note about the Devils-Panthers series. The Devils were 16-6 in OT/SO this year. The Panthers? 7-18.

I don't get the love for San Jose that I've been seeing. I guess it's a value-based play, as the Blues aren't worth playing at 45-50 cents. I don't see where SJ even sticks around in this series. They had the league's second-worst penalty kill, Niemi doesn't impress me despite his Cup win with the Blackhawks, and the Blues gave up 104 goals at 5-on-5 this year. If the Sharks can't score at even strength or kill penalties, I don't see how they can stay in this series, even if they have the bigger stars.

Boston was 32-0 with a lead after two periods. The Capitals have no heart whatsoever. That series could really be over in a hurry. Add in Braden Holtby v. Tim Thomas? Ugly. Caps sucked on the road (16-25) and Boston was 31-5 when they scored first. Washington hasn't started fast in many games this season.

Detroit's getting too much respect. Nashville's the team that nobody's wanted to play in the first round for the last 3-4 years. They're physical, they're irritating, and they have the best goaltender nobody talks about. I think it's a long series, but the gameplan will be to wear down Detroit. Nashville's also the second-best road team in the West. That might slightly negate Detroit's only real advantage, their home record.

Rangers-Ottawa is a tough one, but I don't think it's as tough as people are making it out to be. It's still the same Ottawa team that was less than .500 on home ice and gave up 240 goals. Yeah, they can score, and the perception of the Rangers is down after they let Pittsburgh back into the division race, but they know their season starts now. If Craig Anderson has a .933 sv% like he did in 2010 against Colorado, they can compete. But, I don't see where they can outlast the Rangers. Two contrasting styles of play, though, so it might be one of the more entertaining series to watch.

[Beyond the Bets]

Good info, Skating. I'm planning to set aside some degen money so that I can bet hockey playoffs and have an interest. I'm intending to watch every playoff game - yes, every playoff game - and I'd love to do something fun on the forum for hockey. Might roll out a contest of some sorts if we have enough interest.

[Skating Tripods]

(04-10-2012 04:00 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Good info, Skating. I'm planning to set aside some degen money so that I can bet hockey playoffs and have an interest. I'm intending to watch every playoff game - yes, every playoff game - and I'd love to do something fun on the forum for hockey. Might roll out a contest of some sorts if we have enough interest.

Can do a bracket if you wanted. Re-seeds after first round, so you'd have to set it up to do that.

1 point for winner in first round, additional point for guessing length of series.

2 points for second round winner, +1 for guessing series length.

And so on.

Tiebreaker: Total OT games for entire postseason.

[Beyond the Bets]

I'm thinking more along the lines of a daily pick 'em contest of sorts, using odds, etc., but yeah, a bracket style could work too.

[Skating Tripods]

(04-10-2012 05:12 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I'm thinking more along the lines of a daily pick 'em contest of sorts, using odds, etc., but yeah, a bracket style could work too.

That works too. I like daily contests because it forces people to be active.

[RickRude]

(04-10-2012 12:02 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  According to So_Money.. he seems to think the same about the Kings/Canucks series. Winner has a really good chance of winning the Western Conference.

That makes sense, because none of the other teams in the West have the scoring depth of Vancouver. The thinking being that if Quick can steal the Canuck series he can probably beat anyone else especially PHX,STL, Nashville. But I can't wrap my head around LA pulling the series out. Vancouver is hot and if Luongo sucks he won't play the rest of the series. LA isn't tough and can't score. That is a disaster for playoff teams. The last team that played this way and got in was probably the 2009 Rangers. Lundqvist flat stole 3 games in that series, but the Caps wore them down and out. Don't see Quick getting 4 for LA.

Love the info on Philly/Pit. Looks like a stay away for me at least until after game 1. Rumblings that Van Riemsdyk could be ready for a possible game 5 which would be humongous.

Won't play Detroit/Nashville either. Nashville should be a bigger favorite because the Wings just can't score anymore and the Weber/Suter pairing should mitigate or completely take away Datsyuk and Zetterberg. The one thing that scares me is that Rinne has started 72 games. 72! That is insanity. The guy seemed to wearing down in mid March and got it together down the stretch. Can he last? I'm not going to wager on it to find out.

[RickRude]

Just a quick update before the puck drops tonight. The Flyers are now up to +180 to beat the Penguins. EVERYONE is on the Pens, not just to win this series, but to win the Eastern conference. I'm looking for any "expert" to pick another team and haven't found one yet. This just smells like the Flyers come out, put some panic into all the pundits, and punch the Pens in the nose tonight. Literally and Figuratively.

[illadelphia]

(04-11-2012 12:30 PM)RickRude Wrote:  Just a quick update before the puck drops tonight. The Flyers are now up to +180 to beat the Penguins. EVERYONE is on the Pens, not just to win this series, but to win the Eastern conference. I'm looking for any "expert" to pick another team and haven't found one yet. This just smells like the Flyers come out, put some panic into all the pundits, and punch the Pens in the nose tonight. Literally and Figuratively.

Great update. I was waiting to unload on the Flyers in this series until today because of all the love the Pens have been getting.

I did find some "expert" picks here that were not ALL pittsburgh.

Obviously the goalie play is huge. Aside from that, I am looking for a big game from Brayden Schenn tonight. Playing on a line with Briere has really elevated his game. I also want to see if Hartnell & Simmonds can screen and disrupt Fleury down low.

Flyers in 6

[SkyBlues42]

fading the consensus.. or is this a homer play?

[illadelphia]

(04-11-2012 01:16 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  fading the consensus.. or is this a homer play?

At first I thought it was a homer play, so I spent a good chunk of time trying to find info to support a Pens play. All that I found were historical trends, experience & other similar things. Nothing that sold me on Pittsburgh.

I agree with RickRude that the ESPN/public love for the Pens is likely the reason for such a disparity on the series price. These are two very evenly matched teams. So I gladly take the +$ team in the series and enjoy the added bonus that it happens to come on the Flyers.

[RickRude]

(04-11-2012 01:11 PM)illadelphia Wrote:  Great update. I was waiting to unload on the Flyers in this series until today because of all the love the Pens have been getting.

I did find some "expert" picks here that were not ALL pittsburgh.

Obviously the goalie play is huge. Aside from that, I am looking for a big game from Brayden Schenn tonight. Playing on a line with Briere has really elevated his game. I also want to see if Hartnell & Simmonds can screen and disrupt Fleury down low.

Flyers in 6

Yeah, saw the Puck Daddy picks, but some of them are hard to take seriously outside of Wyshininponjind. I would also look for Hartnell to get under the skin of Crosby/Malkin. Really excited for this series. Hope it doesn't disappoint.

I'm going to be playing a ton of unders in the opening round also. There were 36 regular season games played in the season series of these squads (Rangers/Sens played 4 times, Bruins/Caps 4. etc..) and only in 14 of those games was the total 6 or over and 4 were Pens/Flyers. The league is also letting a lot of obstruction/holding go undetected so I expect these games to be more low scoring than usual. Every O/U is 5 right now in game 1 except for Flyers/Pens which is 5.5