NHL Hedging Question

[adamburden]

New to posting, have been following along the board for quite some time.

Before the Stanley Cup started, I placed the following bets:

$168 to win $100 - Kings win the Cup
$100 to win $400 - Kings win 4-1
$100 to win $300 - Kings win 4-2

As it stands right now, my book has the Kings -190 in game 4.

I can bet $190 to win $100 on the Kings to win game 4 to completely break even if they do close it up in 4 still leaving myself the opportunity for some small gains ($210 should they win 4-1, $110 should they win 4-2) - just seeing if everyone thinks this is the right play.

Also, wondering if I should lock it in now at -190 or try and wait and see if I can get some line movement in my favor.

Thanks for the advice.

[SkyBlues42]

You really put yourself in a difficult position with the series finish bets. You should have only wagered a total of $100 or less on them (if you were dead-set on doing so). That way, worst-case scenario would be break even if the Kings win tomorrow night.

Anyways.. It sucks that right now, you're in a position to lose money on a Kings to win the Cup future. You could bet the 190 on the Kings to win tomorrow. If you did that.. this is what you'd be looking at:

Kings win tomorrow: Break Even.
Kings lose tomorrow, win series 4-1: +$210
Kings lose tomorrow, win series 4-2: +$110

This is assuming you don't make any additional plays after tomorrow. I'm not even sure what I would do. I'd probably make the -190 play and hope the Devils don't win the next three games.

[jimmysingh9]

What SkyBlues wrote is probably the only answer.


YOU COULD bet Kings to win in regulation but you are leaving yourself to the Kings winning in OT.

[RickRude]

I'm in a worse position due to the Devils on the verge of getting swept. Still have my Devils 18-1 bet to win the Cup which is $50 to win $900. Put $300 on the Kings at -140 series bet so I'm looking at a a roughly 175 profit which is good, but to not have another chance to hedge here is dissapointing. Was hoping to get $400 profit at least, but ride out the first couple games. No chance of that happening unless Devils can get it to a game 6.

[adamburden]

(06-05-2012 01:52 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  You really put yourself in a difficult position with the series finish bets. You should have only wagered a total of $100 or less on them (if you were dead-set on doing so). That way, worst-case scenario would be break even if the Kings win tomorrow night.

Anyways.. It sucks that right now, you're in a position to lose money on a Kings to win the Cup future. You could bet the 190 on the Kings to win tomorrow. If you did that.. this is what you'd be looking at:

Kings win tomorrow: Break Even.
Kings lose tomorrow, win series 4-1: +$210
Kings lose tomorrow, win series 4-2: +$110

This is assuming you don't make any additional plays after tomorrow. I'm not even sure what I would do. I'd probably make the -190 play and hope the Devils don't win the next three games.

Yeah, got kinda greedy with the exact-results bets - should have bet $50/each like you said. I really thought that NJ would take one game only and placed the 4-2 as a bit of insurance.

I don't think there is any chance the Devils take more than 1 game, if that. I think I'm gonna go ahead and place the bet on the Kings (now at -175 at my book) to win tonight and be done with it.

Learned a bit from it and can use it as knowledge on the next bet - thanks for the responses!