NHL Eastern conference semis

[RickRude]

Prices are out for the Eastern conference semis so I'll break those down. I'll be playing all the unders in the west until the books move the totals down to 4.5 or these teams prove they can score against arguably 4 of the top 10 goalies in the league. I'm on Nashville tonight for the reasons in the western semis post.

Washington/New York
Season series 2-2
Series prices Rangers -180, Caps +150

Caps and Rangers both come out of rugged,physical, and at times, nasty 7 game series and get right back to it tomorrow. The Caps superstars have bought into Dale Hunter's defensive first philosophy and if they haven't bought in, well, they aren't going to play as Ovechkin is finding out. Hunter has made some curious decisions such as limiting his skill players time on the PP. Don't know what that's about, but so far it hasn't burned them. Braden Holtby was outstanding for 7 games, but did get help from his defense at key times.

The Rangers are going to keep doing what they do. Try to get a couple goals and let the King take them home. It's a dangerous philosophy, but the Ranger forecheck enables them to play this style. They can really grind down a team's defensemen as I think they did to a certain extent on Erik Karlsson in round 1. Another thing to note is the addition of Chris Kreider. Kreider was beastly in games 6 and 7 and has added speed to a lineup that desperately needs it. To say Ottawa wasn't prepared for Kreider would be an understatement. They had no idea how to control him. A huge suprise that will test the Caps D.

Bottom line

A lot of talk in Washington is how this is a better matchup for them and that they've beaten the Rangers 2 of the last 3 years. Well, this is a totally different Ranger team. Kreider, Gaborik and Hagelin give them speed that they didn't previously have. Whereas Karlsson's speed helped negate Gaborik and helped Ottawa control the puck in the Ranger zone from the points, Washington's top D pair of Carlson and Alzner will not be able to pinch so recklessly meaning they will have to generate offense from below the circles. Washington's up front talent has to play more minutes in this series. Ovechkin and Semin have given this group of Ranger defensemen fits. If Hunter sits them for big stretches he's playing directly into the Rangers hands. It should be another grind out series, but the way Washington now plays it is an advantageous matchup for NY.

Gambling angle.

I do think the Rangers win the series, BUT it's hard to play the Rangers at -180 when these games are going to be tight. If you want to play the Rangers the best thing is hope for a split or better (which is certainly possible) and then jump on them. Washington at +150 does nothing for me. The value is just ok there. As of now I am staying away until I see how games 1 and 2 play out.

NJ/Philadelphia
Season series 3-3
Philly -180/ NJ +150

Philly took it to Cup favorite Pittsburgh in round 1 totally exposing the Penguins soft D, while NJ struggled putting away Florida team that let them lead 5 separate games by 2 or more goals. For my money the Flyers walk into this series with the best player left on any of the 8 playoff teams (maybe the best player in the NHL) in Claude Giroux. The guy does everything. PK, PP, hits, scores, assists. He is the total package. His line with Jagr and Hartnell made Pittsburgh look like the Islanders. It was an epic display by Giroux. Philly's youngsters took some lumps, literally in some cases, but still stood up to Pittsburgh's immense talent relatively well. Ilya Bryzgalov was,well, bad, but the Pens can make most goalies look bad and the scoring of the Flyers took some of the heat off for now. Saying Bryzgalov has to be better this round is like saying we need air to breathe.

The Devils worked way too hard in round 1. Everytime they put the Panthers behind the 8 ball they continually left them off the hook. Thanks to Adam Henrique, Travis Zajac and a vintage double OT performance by Brodeur they were able to get through. The Devils PK was an absolute abomination and the only reason the Panthers won/stayed in games. This is the same PK that was setting NHL records this year. They must get that taken care of because here come's Philly and one of the best PP's in the playoffs. With rumors of Kovalchuk being more hurt than he's letting on they have to find some more scoring from Parise to stay in it.

Bottom line

This matchup could not be any worse for New Jersey. The Devils worked their ass off for 7 games and the reward is a date with Philly having a week off. Congrats! This is not a vintage Devils defensive squad. The Panthers could not take advantage of the Devil blueliners, but Philly will. The Devils are a slow moving group back there that's not especially big. They play D based on being in the right spot, but Philly is going to shove them around. With Philly's major weakness is in net the Devils have to keep the pucks in the corners and get to the front. Bryzgalov will give the Devils chances to score and the Flyer's defenseman are not the best at picking up people in front. The question is can NJ D actually get the puck to the forwards and will they cash in on those opportunities.

Gambling angle.

It's Philly or bust here IMO. It is a general rule to not play NHL series prices this high, but this might be the best number you get the Flyers at. Unless you believe NJ can score to keep up with the Flyers. The Flyers are not unbeatable by any stretch. A vintage Brodeur playoff series will keep it tight, but the firepower of the Flyers should be too much for an overmatched Devils defense. Here's a stat that will make you love Philly more.

In his last 15 starts against the Flyers (including playoffs) Martin Brodeur is 3-12 and has given up 43 goals. In only 8 of those games was his save percentage over 900. Yikes.

PLAY Flyers -180

[ChicosBailBonds]

5dimes reduced has Philly -153 for series.

[JayPrimetown]

Yep... love the Flyers here. Brodeur, was good in Game 7, but is nowhere near his best anymore, will have a difficult time stopping Philadelphia. Philly's intensity will overmatch the Flyers. Having a hard time seeing how the Devils win over 7 games.

Philly -153 is a bargain in my eyes.

[Weebay]

I'm interested in the Philly nj series. Before round 1 I said the winner of the pens flyers series wins the east. Now I am not sure. What I learned from that series is that Pittsburghs defense was horrible and even worse than that was Their penalty killing. I also learned that phillys weaknesses were over shadowed by Pittsburghs poor play. Do I think Philly has championship calibure goaltending and defense? No. Is possible to convert 50 percent on pp? Prob not. This will be a good series But i would not be comfortable with laying anything more than 160 in his series.

[Skating Tripods]

All chalk. I see zero upset possibility in these two series. There's no way the Devils defensemen can match up with the Flyers talent. I also can't see Washington continuing to do the little things that they did to beat Boston. They're not winning as many board battles against NYR, they won't block as many shots, and Tortorella is a better coach than Julien. He'll have a better gameplan.

I wouldn't be shocked if these are both over in 5.

[RickRude]

(04-27-2012 10:56 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  All chalk. I see zero upset possibility in these two series.

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