NHL Data Question

[Ja Yule]

SoMoney,

Quick NHL data question. I've seen on other forums where people say to scrap the first two seasons of data after the lockout. What are your thoughts on this?

I feel like any totals analysis should be thrown out because goal scoring has gone down since those first two years but aren't the moneyline situations still applicable. For example, if Home Favorites coming off five days rest (I'm making this up) were a positive EV bet why would that be different in the first two post lockout years vs. the most recent years?

Thanks,

Ja Yule

[@So_Money_Sports]

Hey Ja Yule,

Great questions. Before directly answering the questions, I'll provide a little background on how the lockout affected my handicapping.

The game completely changed after the lockout, with the first year being particularly frustrating on a personal level. That October was one of the worst months I've ever had. In fact, from mid-November, I had 4 plays the rest of the season. The game changed on such a fundamental level and it took me until after the all-star break the following season to finally adjust.

I would agree with scrapping the totals data from those first 2 years, it was such a different game. Thinking about the 20 power plays/game and game totals of 7 going over in the 2nd period still makes me shudder.

Situations don't change, they never change across all sports in any given year. What changes is the extent that the situations/spots have been accounted for in the line. Those situational bets you are referring to were +EV bets 10 years ago and will still be +EV bets next season IF the books are unable to fully build them into the line.

[paperstacks1980]

i would only scrap the first year of data after the lockout