NFL wins total discussion

[TheHandicaper]

Sorry I abandoned the forum a bit the last few weeks, but I wanted to get this discussion up and going early.

Haven't looked at a lot of them, but I really don't think there is a chance Arizona wins 7 games. Seriously, who is going to throw to Floyd and Fitzgerald? Ryan Lindley?

They have goten better on defense, sure thing. But they have to go into NE, GB, ATL, NYJ, SF. I'll go out on a limb and say they won't get a W in those 5.

Rest of the schedule: SEA (Curently a PK, though I have SEA -1.5), PHI, MIA, @STL, BUF, @MIN, SF, STL, DET, CHI.

PHI, SF, DET, CHI: Say 1-3. Very probably a 0-4. Unlikely 2-2.

SEA, MIA, BUF: 2-1, 1-2. Can't see them winning 3. With some luck, they loose all 3.

@STl, @MIN, STL: STL at home should be a win. The other two are tough divisional games. Maybe a split, hardly win them both. (2-1)

So, best case scenario, they go 7-9. I'd say 6 is their celling. They could very well end up with 5.

Would love to hear some thoughts on any position you have on this or any other win total.

[Beyond the Bets]

Red = over
Blue = under

Some teams, you'll see both red and blue.

* * *

[the dude]

That's a great chart there, BTB.

Have to take Over 8.5 at LVH and Under 10 at BOL on the Giants too.

[SkyBlues42]

Could say the same thing about the Saints. Put the majority of your money on the over 9.5 at LVH or MGM and place some on the under 11 at BOL.

[GreyMatterStats]

Hi Everyone,

A few days ago we posted our projected Win/Loss Totals for the 2012/2013 NFL Season along with our projected Division Winners, which you can find at the link below:


http://greymatterstats.wordpress.com/201...standings/

Just FYI, if you click on the picture on the Wordpress page you will see a top-line version of the projections. For the detail information, including the projections for all individual regular season games, you will need to click on the spreadsheet found at the bottom of the posting.

[Wiseguy]

Great job GMS. I really like the Den and Car unders, your analysis agrees.

[GreyMatterStats]

Thanks Wiseguy.

Obviously things could change in a heartbeat, but there seems to be value out there with some of these totals.

Agree with you that the Under for both Carolina and Denver is worth strong consideration.

As we mentioned in the posting, while we have historically done these projections in preparation for a new football season, this is the first time we have published them, and fully expect to fall into one of three categories as it relates to them; Genius, Dipshit, or Also-Ran.

If nothing else, if it helps to generate some football talk on June 1st, then we are all for that.

(06-01-2012 02:02 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  Great job GMS. I really like the Den and Car unders, your analysis agrees.

[Beyond the Bets]

(06-01-2012 01:57 PM)GreyMatterStats Wrote:  Hi Everyone,

A few days ago we posted our projected Win/Loss Totals for the 2012/2013 NFL Season along with our projected Division Winners, which you can find at the link below:


http://greymatterstats.wordpress.com/201...standings/

Just FYI, if you click on the picture on the Wordpress page you will see a top-line version of the projections. For the detail information, including the projections for all individual regular season games, you will need to click on the spreadsheet found at the bottom of the posting.

Can you do something similar for college football?

[GreyMatterStats]

http://greymatterstats.wordpress.com/201...standings/

How is that for turn-a-round time.

(06-01-2012 03:01 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(06-01-2012 01:57 PM)GreyMatterStats Wrote:  Hi Everyone,

A few days ago we posted our projected Win/Loss Totals for the 2012/2013 NFL Season along with our projected Division Winners, which you can find at the link below:


http://greymatterstats.wordpress.com/201...standings/

Just FYI, if you click on the picture on the Wordpress page you will see a top-line version of the projections. For the detail information, including the projections for all individual regular season games, you will need to click on the spreadsheet found at the bottom of the posting.

Can you do something similar for college football?

[VincentValour]

Good stuff GMS, we did similar research and came out with similar numbers except mainly on the Raiders and Chiefs. Any metric that stood out for those teams to have such drastically different records?

[Skating Tripods]

If you're in Vegas, I'd middle the Browns at under 6 at MGM and over 4.5 at LVH. I think they're a 5-11, 4-12 team, so I'd bet the under 6 a lot heavier than the over 4.5. Last year, they had the pleasure of playing the NFC West. This year, they get the NFC East and AFC West. Lately, they have not been a good team when going out West.

One of their winnable games, Indy, is on the road. They've certainly added talent, especially with Weeden, Richardson, and fixing the offensive line. This is just a play on their schedule. They don't have many weak opponents.

[GreyMatterStats]

Hi VV,

What do you have the Chiefs and the Raiders projected at?

(06-02-2012 01:08 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  Good stuff GMS, we did similar research and came out with similar numbers except mainly on the Raiders and Chiefs. Any metric that stood out for those teams to have such drastically different records?

[ChiefZilla]

Raiders at 10 wins, and Chiefs at 3.

[GreyMatterStats]

Response to our Chiefs' projection or a video from the wedding reception BTB is at???

(06-02-2012 06:23 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Raiders at 10 wins, and Chiefs at 3.

[VincentValour]

(06-02-2012 05:07 PM)GreyMatterStats Wrote:  Hi VV,

What do you have the Chiefs and the Raiders projected at?

(06-02-2012 01:08 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  Good stuff GMS, we did similar research and came out with similar numbers except mainly on the Raiders and Chiefs. Any metric that stood out for those teams to have such drastically different records?

Chiefs 8.11
Raiders 6.98

Just quick summaries.

Chiefs rating higher due bunch of players coming back off injury. Had a decent defensive rating last year, just bad offense. Overall should be better.

Raiders defense was awful last year, should get worse this year. Palmer awful qb under duress, should be passing a lot due to defense allowing points. Lack of depth. However offense should continue to put up points, also underrated o-line.

Both teams have tougher than average schedules

[SkyBlues42]

I'd actually like to hear why GMS has the Chiefs listed at 3 wins.

[ChiefZilla]

(06-03-2012 09:36 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  I'd actually like to hear why GMS has the Chiefs listed at 3 wins.

Probably this...

[SkyBlues42]

Interesting. I was thinking...

[ChiefZilla]

That is some A+ photoshopping skills.

[GreyMatterStats]

In our process we attempt to account for things such as coaching changes, player addition/subtraction, historic performance, and potential scheduling issues.

Much of it is subjective by it's nature of course. Trying to project how much impact, positively or negatively, things such as free agency or high draft picks will have is no easy task, but we have our models and candidly like most things they have been great some seasons and not so great in others.


A few notes on both Kansas City and Oakland:


1. Right or wrong, as of right now our system puts more faith in Palmer's career history than it does Cassel's.

2. It is not a major factor in our current projections, but Crennel's history as a head coach impacts the Chiefs somewhat negatively, while Allen is neutral.

3. Last year the Chief's averaged 13.3 points for and 21.1 against (-7.8 differential) and this year we project them to average 16.9 points for and 23.9 against (-7.0 differential).

4. Last year the Raider's averaged 22.4 points for and 27.1 against (-4.7 differential) and this year we project them to average 24.4 points for and 21.4 against (+3.0 differential).

5. We have the Raiders winning both games against the Chiefs this coming season.

6. For whatever it is worth, over a 5 year period straight up on a game by game basis we have correctly projected the Chief's outcomes 67.0% and the Raider's 69.8%