NFL win totals

[VincentValour]

As per the front page post.

ARIZONA CARDINALS
Over 6 (-110)
Under 6 (-120)

ATLANTA FALCONS
Over 10 (-135)
Under 10 (+105)

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Over 9.5 (-120)
Under 9.5 (-110)

BUFFALO BILLS
Over 5 (-135)
Under 5 (+105)

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (even)

CHICAGO BEARS
Over 8.5 (-135)
Under 8.5 (+105)

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Over 9 (-115)
Under 9 (-115)

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Over 5 (+120)
Under 5 (-150)

DALLAS COWBOYS
Over 8.5 (-150)
Under 8.5 (+120)

DENVER BRONCOS
Over 12 (-130)
Under 12 (even)

DETROIT LIONS
Over 7 (-115)
Under 7 (-115)

GREEN BAY PACKERS
Over 12 (-115)
Under 12 (-115)

HOUSTON TEXANS
Over 11 (-140)
Under 11 (+110)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Over 8 (-150)
Under 8 (+120)

JACKSONVILLE JAGAURS
Over 4.5 (-140)
Under 4.5 (+110)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (even)

MIAMI DOLPHINS
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Over 11.5 (-140)
Under 11.5 (+110)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Over 9.5 (-115)
Under 9.5 (-115)

NEW YORK GIANTS
Over 9 (-120)
Under 9 (-110)

NEW YORK JETS
Over 7 (-120)
Under 7 (-110)

OAKLAND RAIDERS
Over 5.5 (-115)
Under 5.5 (-115)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Over 6.5 (-150)
Under 6.5 (+120)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Over 10 (-130)
Under 10 (even)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Over 7 (even)
Under 7 (-130)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Over 11.5 (-120)
Under 11.5 (-110)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Over 11 (-140)
Under 11 (+110)

ST. LOUIS RAMS
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-115)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Over 6.5 (-115)
Under 6.5 (-115)

TENNESSEE TITANS
Over 6.5 (+110)
Under 6.5 (-140)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-120)


I'm actually impressed with most of the numbers. They seemed to account for regression/progression pretty well. A couple that stuck out to me were.

Jets O/U 7 - Really -110 on the under? This team is pretty talentless. Strongly lean under.

Cowboys O/U 8.5 -150 on the over. Not as bad but that seems like a high price to pay on "America's team"
lean under

Chiefs O/U 6.5 -130 to the over. Again not too bad. But seems short with the Raiders and Chargers looking like a mess, and the Chiefs playing the weak AFC South.
lean over

Also some inside info on smaller Nevada books. Some of the independent books in Reno and other spots in Nevada will have off market win total #'s. This is mainly due to books move more based on action with props, futures, etc, and not so much on steam. Also with many of the books being in the middle of nowhere, they don't induce as much action on these bets. So if anyone is driving through the area don't forget to check the numbers at some of these independent books.

I'll post my personal win totals in the next couple days.

Anybody liking anything based on the openers?

[Wiseguy]

Homer pick but I like Fins over 7.5. I think they are 9 win team

[SkyBlues42]

I think the Eagles OVER 6.5 looks good. Juice is high, but still think they get to at least 7 this year. Also like the Buffalo OVER 5.

[ChiefZilla]

I'd go with Packers under 12. Just think 10-6 or 11-5 in that division is far more likely than 13-3. Tough out-of-division schedule with road trips to San Francisco, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Giants and Cowboys. I'd set this number at more like 10.5 or 11.

[Skating Tripods]

Cleveland Browns over 5 at plus money is definitely worth a shot. I don't think this team's worse than 5-11. Their offensive line should be one of the better ones in the NFL, especially with Mitchell Schwartz at RT having a full year of experience under his belt and Jason Pinkston providing stability at LG. Leon McFadden is a huge upgrade over Buster Skrine at the other corner spot and Paul Kruger is a great addition to the linebacking corps. They actually have really good depth on defense to withstand injuries and that's without throwing Barkevious Mingo in the fold right away.

Weeden's not the answer offensively, but at least he and his WRs have another year together, plus they added experienced talent with Davone Bess. Richardson and Hardesty were a pretty formidable RB group. I think Rob Chudzinski loves TE Jordan Cameron.

They draw Miami, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Buffalo at home. They should win at least three of those games, if not all four. Kansas City on the road is a toss-up, as is one of the two games with Cincinnati. The Jets will probably be in shambles again by late December, so that may be a toss-up game as well.

They could reasonably hit the bye week at 4-5, leaving you a lot of chances for at least a push. A lot of talent on both sides of the ball and a lot of depth on D. Hard to go 4-12 in the NFL with that.

[spanishredeye]

I like the Cleveland over as well, and I also like the Seattle under 11. I don't have a big long fancy write up on why though.

[JetsMetsRangers]

Bears are priced too low again. Only 8.5? This is a pretty good team in a not so good division. They should win 9. -130 is worth the squeeze. I also like the Browns.

[JetsMetsRangers]

Browns are without a doubt the best play on this board.

[SkyBlues42]

I hate to say it but I would lean towards the UNDER for the Browns. Largely because I think Buffalo and Detroit will win against Cleveland. Without those, I don't see how they get to 6.

[JetsMetsRangers]

KC is getting a lot of buzz because of their improvement at QB (projected at least), Andy Reid, and easy division. I know Vincent leans them. What do the rest of you think on that one?

[VincentValour]

Cantor Gaming win totals- updated after the first day's movements


ARIZONA CARDINALS
Over 5.5 (Even)
Under 5.5 (-120)

ATLANTA FALCONS
Over 10 (-115)
Under 10 (-105)

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-110)

BUFFALO BILLS
Over 6.5 (Even)
Under 6.5 (-120)

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Over 7 (Even)
Under 7 (-120)

CHICAGO BEARS
Over 8.5 (-120)
Under 8.5 (Even)

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Over 8.5 (-120)
Under 8.5 (Even)

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Over 5.5 (-110)
Under 5.5 (-110)

DALLAS COWBOYS (opened -110)
Over 8.5 (+105)
Under 8.5 (-125)

DENVER BRONCOS
Over 11 (-120)
Under 11 (even)

DETROIT LIONS (opened -110)
Over 7.5 (+105)
Under 7.5 (-125)

GREEN BAY PACKERS (opened O Even/ U -120)
Over 10.5 (+110)
Under 10.5 (-130)

HOUSTON TEXANS
Over 10.5 (Even)
Under 10.5 (-120)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Over 8.5 (-110)
Under 8.5 (-110)

JACKSONVILLE JAGAURS (opened O -120/ U Even)
Over 5 (-115)
Under 5 (-105)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (opened -110)
Over 6.5 (-125)
Under 6.5 (+105)

MIAMI DOLPHINS (opened O -120/ U Even)
Over 6.5 (-150)
Under 6.5 (+130)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (opened O -120/ U Even)
Over 7 (-130)
Under 7 (+110)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Over 11 (-115)
Under 11 (-105)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Over 9 (-115)
Under 9 (-105)

NEW YORK GIANTS
Over 9 (-120)
Under 9 (Even)

NEW YORK JETS
Over 6.5 (-105)
Under 6.5 (-115)

OAKLAND RAIDERS
Over 5.5 (-110)
Under 5.5 (-110)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Over 7 (-120)
Under 7 (Even)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (opened -110)
Over 9.5 (Even)
Under 9.5 (-120)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Over 7.5 (-110)
Under 7.5 (-110)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (opened O -125 / U +105)
Over 11 (-115)
Under 11 (-105)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Over 10 (-120)
Under 10 (Even)

ST. LOUIS RAMS (opened at -110)
Over 6.5 (-125)
Under 6.5 (+105)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-105)

TENNESSEE TITANS (opened at O -120 / U Even)
Over 6.5 (-105)
Under 6.5 (-115)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Over 8 (-110)
Under 8 (-110)

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think the way to play these are unders or nothing. Injuries really help you on them.

[Skating Tripods]

5.5 is a much better number for the Browns. Feels so much safer to have 5-11 as a push.

[SkyBlues42]

Still like the Eagles OVER even at 7. I know Chip Kelly hasn't proven anything in the NFL, but I think he has a solid base to run the type of offense he's familiar with -- though it will likely be toned down. NFC East should be really competitive, as usual, but I think they can win 8 games, seven being a push isn't that bad either.

[joeytunes2]

(05-10-2013 01:15 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  As per the front page post.

ARIZONA CARDINALS
Over 6 (-110)
Under 6 (-120)

ATLANTA FALCONS
Over 10 (-135)
Under 10 (+105)

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Over 9.5 (-120)
Under 9.5 (-110)

BUFFALO BILLS
Over 5 (-135)
Under 5 (+105)

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (even)

CHICAGO BEARS
Over 8.5 (-135)
Under 8.5 (+105)

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Over 9 (-115)
Under 9 (-115)

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Over 5 (+120)
Under 5 (-150)

DALLAS COWBOYS
Over 8.5 (-150)
Under 8.5 (+120)

DENVER BRONCOS
Over 12 (-130)
Under 12 (even)

DETROIT LIONS
Over 7 (-115)
Under 7 (-115)

GREEN BAY PACKERS
Over 12 (-115)
Under 12 (-115)

HOUSTON TEXANS
Over 11 (-140)
Under 11 (+110)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Over 8 (-150)
Under 8 (+120)

JACKSONVILLE JAGAURS
Over 4.5 (-140)
Under 4.5 (+110)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (even)

MIAMI DOLPHINS
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Over 11.5 (-140)
Under 11.5 (+110)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Over 9.5 (-115)
Under 9.5 (-115)

NEW YORK GIANTS
Over 9 (-120)
Under 9 (-110)

NEW YORK JETS
Over 7 (-120)
Under 7 (-110)

OAKLAND RAIDERS
Over 5.5 (-115)
Under 5.5 (-115)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Over 6.5 (-150)
Under 6.5 (+120)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Over 10 (-130)
Under 10 (even)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Over 7 (even)
Under 7 (-130)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Over 11.5 (-120)
Under 11.5 (-110)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Over 11 (-140)
Under 11 (+110)

ST. LOUIS RAMS
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-115)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Over 6.5 (-115)
Under 6.5 (-115)

TENNESSEE TITANS
Over 6.5 (+110)
Under 6.5 (-140)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-120)


I'm actually impressed with most of the numbers. They seemed to account for regression/progression pretty well. A couple that stuck out to me were.

Jets O/U 7 - Really -110 on the under? This team is pretty talentless. Strongly lean under.

Cowboys O/U 8.5 -150 on the over. Not as bad but that seems like a high price to pay on "America's team"
lean under

Chiefs O/U 6.5 -130 to the over. Again not too bad. But seems short with the Raiders and Chargers looking like a mess, and the Chiefs playing the weak AFC South.
lean over

Also some inside info on smaller Nevada books. Some of the independent books in Reno and other spots in Nevada will have off market win total #'s. This is mainly due to books move more based on action with props, futures, etc, and not so much on steam. Also with many of the books being in the middle of nowhere, they don't induce as much action on these bets. So if anyone is driving through the area don't forget to check the numbers at some of these independent books.

I'll post my personal win totals in the next couple days.

Anybody liking anything based on the openers?

books like atlantis? is it worth driving out there i was just about to?

i like sd overs this yr..i think people finally quit them..unders indy and wash...

also think det can make a 8 with min having a great yr not that good of a team....and chi isnt gonna get 100 pts from there defense again...

[Wiseguy]

I like Btb's thinking on Miami, living in the market i know the team pretty damn well. At 6.5 its a really good play, I even think the Atlantis price of 7.5 is a solid play. The Fins should be much improved on offense and I expect the defense to be good as usual. They have the good fortune of playing the Jets and Bills twice which should equal at least 3 wins imo. I think the gap between Miami and New England is narrowing, at least talent wise. Miami's offense should be a heck of a lot better in year two of the system and Tannehill should continue to get better. They added Wallace but I think adding Keller and Gibson are going to make them much more explosive. The only concerns I have are how fast the new lb's mesh with system and team as well as Martin improving at LT.

[VincentValour]

My #'s, off raw power rankings


ARIZONA 6.01
ATLANTA 9.39
BALTIMORE 9.28
BUFFALO 5.55
CAROLINA 7.08
CHICAGO 8.03
CINCINNATI 8.79
CLEVELAND 5.75
DALLAS 8.3
DENVER 11.55
DETROIT 7.4
GREEN BAY 10.01
HOUSTON 9.48
INDIANAPOLIS 7.7
[JACKSONVILLE 5.03
KANSAS CITY 7.9
MIAMI 7.18
MINNESOTA 6.94
NEW ENGLAND 10.93
NEW ORLEANS 9.65
N.Y. GIANTS 9.24
N.Y. JETS 5.41
OAKLAND 5.46
PHILADELPHIA 6.92
PITTSBURGH 9.9
SAN DIEGO 7.42
SAN FRANCISCO 10.75
SEATTLE 10.09
ST. LOUIS 7.71
TAMPA BAY 6.50
TENNESSEE 6.66
WASHINGTON 8.32

Couple of notes - I am high on the Saints, Steelers, and Broncos so those numbers will look off market. Also low on Jets and Bills.

Redskins is assuming RG3 is healthy from day one, no idea on that one.

Seattle is pretty high, probably downgrade them a bit for a few west coast to early east coast games.

I'm low on the Chargers, but they have such a soft schedule 8-8 is plausible.

I would also agree on Miami, but would have to play the O 6.5 at higher vig. The current # of Over 7 -120 would have to be a pass.