NFL Week 8

[The Posse]

Still licking my wounds from last week. Went 3-2 ATS (W: CHI, KC, PIT; L: TEN, GB) but my biggest play was a sweetheart teaser that missed when the Ravens couldn't cover +2. Halftime hedge on the Jags reduced my loss but still a negative swing I did not expect. Ugh.

Anyways, moving on. There are 6 spreads at or around double digits and most of the other games are around 3-3.5. Regarding the games with bigger spreads, I did jump on the Colts +9.5. I'm not going to read too much into their blowout loss against an elite team. And Beyond the Bets wrote a great article about this. I'm leaning Jags +10 and Browns +10 as well. The only favorite I jumped on before it possibly (I think likely) goes up is Giants -10. The Giants are finally healthy on defense and are playing well offensively. The other favorites I'm leaning on are Saints -14 and Ravens -13. Yes, I realize betting the Saints goes against BTB's article I linked to. But there's a time to go against it, right? I think this could be one of them. Anyways, I find myself more confident in the Ravens who play much better at home, particularly on offense.

For the smaller spreads, I did bet Patriots -3. I think they win the game, simple as that. My leans are Panthers -3 (-120), Redskins + 6, Cowboys +3.5, Seahawks +3, and Chargers -3.5. I'm hoping for the underdog lines to move before considering playing them. As for Lions/Broncos, although I think Stafford plays, I have no feelings on it and will stay away.

What are your thoughts for this week's games?

[Beyond the Bets]

I lean Chiefs in the Monday Nighter for sure, but still trying to rack my brain to determine if that's a homer play. These two teams saw each other a month ago and the Chiefs lost by just 3 points as 14.5-point road dogs and had a chance to drive for the final score.

The Chargers rarely win both against KC, at least historically, and I haven't been impressed with them so far this year. Three of San Diego's four wins have come against Miami, Minnesota and the Broncos, three of the league's arm pits.

Phillip Rivers has looked out of sorts this year and the Bolts just seem to be missing ... something. I don't know if Rivers is injured — I'm sure he's not — but it's not out of the realm of possibility. The Chargers have yet to put up 30 points in a single game at the near halfway point of the season. As a reference point, San Diego scored 30 or more eight times last year.

I'm not saying KC is good, and there's no question the Chiefs have rode a soft schedule to climb back to 3-3. But Arrowhead is a tough place to play on a Monday night, and catching four points, I like the value in that spot.

[kreatture]

Just remember.. San Diego is going to the SuperBowl this year.. so betting against them probably isn't going to be in your best interest from this week on..

[The Posse]

(10-26-2011 10:43 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I lean Chiefs in the Monday Nighter for sure, but still trying to rack my brain to determine if that's a homer play. These two teams saw each other a month ago and the Chiefs lost by just 3 points as 14.5-point road dogs and had a chance to drive for the final score.

The Chargers rarely win both against KC, at least historically, and I haven't been impressed with them so far this year. Three of San Diego's four wins have come against Miami, Minnesota and the Broncos, three of the league's arm pits.

Phillip Rivers has looked out of sorts this year and the Bolts just seem to be missing ... something. I don't know if Rivers is injured — I'm sure he's not — but it's not out of the realm of possibility. The Chargers have yet to put up 30 points in a single game at the near halfway point of the season. As a reference point, San Diego scored 30 or more eight times last year.

I'm not saying KC is good, and there's no question the Chiefs have rode a soft schedule to climb back to 3-3. But Arrowhead is a tough place to play on a Monday night, and catching four points, I like the value in that spot.

I had those same thoughts myself. But the Chargers had 120 more total yards and really left some points on the field that they should have had. They led the Jets most of last week and the return of Antonio Gates (he didn't play last time) definitely helps. Also, they get the Packers the following week. It's a cliche, but it's a must-win game and I think they step up. Still mulling over playing this and I want to see which of the Chargers' injured players are able to go on Monday.

[Beyond the Bets]

(10-27-2011 12:40 AM)The Posse Wrote:  It's a cliche, but it's a must-win game and I think they step up.

Two things:

#1 - Yes, it IS a cliche.
#2 - How is it a must-win game?

The Chargers have bounced back from brutal September starts in which they began the season 1-3 or even worse. They will be tied for the division lead at worst with a loss.

A must-win game in Week 8 of the NFL season? When competing in a crappy AFC West division?

C'mon, man!

[Beyond the Bets]

By the way, for those interested: Cantor Gaming releases point spreads a week in advance for all NFL games. I think I might start posting them on the site each week since I think they're fairly interesting and also because it might be fun to track the movements from one week to the next depending on a particular week's game outcomes.

Anyways, here are NFL Week 9 lines:

New York Jets -1.5
Buffalo Bills

Tampa Bay Bucs
New Olreans Saints -9.5

Atlanta Falcons -6
Indianapolis Colts

Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys -13

San Francisco 49ers -2.5
Washington Redskins

Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs -5

Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans -9

Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders -6

Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee Titans -3

New York Giants
New England Patriots -7.5

Green Bay Packers -3.5
San Diego Chargers

Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5

BYES: Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota.

[SkyBlues42]

Found this humorous and thought I'd share:

Compliments of Bill Simmons--

Dolphins (+9.5) over GIANTS
Don't forget the words of Justin in Omaha after Seattle ruined my Giants minus-9.5 pick three weeks ago: "I honestly can't believe you would take Eli in an obvious 'people think I am good again so I will show them how bad I can be' game." You don't want Eli around a suicide pool, a three-team teaser or your girlfriend.

As ridiculous as it might sound, I like the Dolphins in this spot as well. Just not to win outright