NFL Totals Question

[ericvanden2010]

Hey guys

Here is my question. How do I know which NFL Total is better when it's the same team with 2 different lines? For example, I have access to TB over 5 (-150) or 6.5 (+150)? I'm pretty sure in this scenario the over 5 is better but I am trying to find a way to figure it out for all the mismatches in Totals. I know Wong wrote something on it but don't have the book and was curious if anybody could explain how to tell which Total holds a better edge? Thanks for your help guys!

[ChiefZilla]

Yeah I don't know the math either but I'm fairly certain you lay the juice to take the 5 in that scenario.

[ericvanden2010]

Yeah. That was an example, hoping BTB has some insight on this. I know that Wong talks about it in his book but don't want to wait for the book to get here. Just curious if anybody has read it or knows what I am talking about. Thanks for your help Chief!

[maidenguy]

eric, the 5 -150 is the much better bet. It is equivalent to an over bet of 5.39 whereas the 6.5 (+150) bet is eq., of winning 6.07 games.

There is a calculator I downloaded a while back that will give you the better bets between the two lines but not sure where I got it from. Give me a couple days and I will try to find out.

[maidenguy]

Try http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com and look around there for it, I think that's where I got it from, now that I think of it.

[maidenguy]

Look under prop tools

[ericvanden2010]

Thanks maidenguy. I checked under there and for some reason the page just has the heading and nothing else?

"Poisson Approach to Prop Bets"
For an explanation of usage of Poisson to analyze props, see the Poisson Props chapter of Sharp Sports Betting

[maidenguy]

Eric, just worked for me, click prop tools and then "save" and you should get the spreadsheet that explains everything.

[ericvanden2010]

K. At my parents house and just realized they don't have excel so that's why I am getting nothing. Ugh. Thanks for your help though man!

[maidenguy]

No problem. Just plug in the lines and it will give you the better play .Good Luck

[ChiefZilla]

Nice topic guys. I know I heard a couple weeks ago that a half-win in the NFL is worth a substantial amount of money. So in the situation above, 1.5 wins is worth a ridiculous amount of money.

Good stuff, maidenguy.

[SkyBlues42]

So you're thinking Tampa Over is a good bet? Any reason... weak schedule etc? They are in one of the more difficult divisions, so finding a win in divisional play might be pretty difficult.

[FakePatObrien]

http://beyondthebets.com/2012/06/02/nfl-...-the-over/

[ChiefZilla]

(06-17-2012 09:53 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  So you're thinking Tampa Over is a good bet? Any reason... weak schedule etc? They are in one of the more difficult divisions, so finding a win in divisional play might be pretty difficult.

Tampa is still a pretty talented team. Didn't they get decimated by injuries last year? I know their RB situation was awful. Plus, even in a terrible year for them they still handed NO one of their three losses and ATL a loss so you know they're capable of competing in that division.

I could definitely see a bounce-back year for them. Or, shoot, 6-10 isn't even really a bounce-back year.

[ericvanden2010]

Right. I really like the over 5 (-150). No way on earth this team goes 4-12 for me to lose this bet. I wouldn't like this bet at 5.5 (-110) but I love that 5 to provide me a bit of a safety net.