NFL team-by-team average spreads

[Beyond the Bets]

The Patriots are favored by an average of 7.84 points per game. The Packers by 7.69. The Eagles by 3.75. And so on.

What's interesting is that the list below could serve as decent power rankings. Does any team seem "way out of whack," by say, five or more slots?

New England Patriots -7.84
Green Bay Packers -7.69
Philadelphia Eagles -3.75
Houston Texans -3.60
San Francisco 49ers -3.09
New Orleans Saints -2.81
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.78
Baltimore Ravens -2.65
Detroit Lions -2.13
San Diego Chargers -1.84
Chicago Bears -1.50
New York Giants -1.38
Denver Broncos -1.34
Atlanta Falcons -1.06
New York Jets -0.84
Dallas Cowboys -0.5
Cincinnati Bengals +0.84
Buffalo Bills +0.94
Carolina Panthers +0.94
Kansas City Chiefs +0.94
Miami Dolphins +0.94
Seattle Seahawks +1.53
Tennessee Titans +1.9
Oakland Raiders +2.16
Washington Redskins +2.78
Arizona Cardinals +3.25
Minnesota Vikings +4.06
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.37
Indianapolis Colts +4.63
St. Louis Rams +4.75
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.19
Cleveland Browns +5.47

[SkyBlues42]

Yeah. The Browns should definitely be three or four spots lower.

[Skating Tripods]

(05-13-2012 10:55 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Yeah. The Browns should definitely be three or four spots lower.

Sad but true.

I think the Cowboys are interesting. The Cowboys still seem to have an aura of perceived public love around them. So, looking at the data above, are they, on average, a very slight favorite as a mediocre team because the public loves them or is it because the public keeps the number closer to Pk when they are a dog. Or is it simply because of their inconsistency from week to week?

As far as some Browns commentary, it's interesting that it's just +5.47. This screams to how much parity there really is in the NFL. When you consider that the Browns are a double digit dog at least twice a year (@BAL, @PIT, and likely in another of their road games), they're actually viewed as a competitive team at home and against a lot of teams.

Another area of interest is the Seahawks where I believe it's one of the last remaining NFL stadiums with a true home field advantage. They should probably be farther down the list, but their division sucks and they do get some love from linesmakers at home.

Surprised the Saints are so low as they're damn near unbeatable at home and a team adored by the public.

[SkyBlues42]

(05-13-2012 11:58 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Another area of interest is the Seahawks where I believe it's one of the last remaining NFL stadiums with a true home field advantage. They should probably be farther down the list, but their division sucks and they do get some love from linesmakers at home.

Actually agree with this. When I first saw the lines, the one game that stood to me -- obviously I looked for the Seahawks' lines first -- was their home game against Dallas.

Their home-field advantage is undeniable, but I would still have listed them as an underdog against the Cowboys. Or at the very least, a pick 'em.

[Beyond the Bets]

It's clear by the point spreads that oddsmakers think the Broncos are a better team than the Chargers. The Broncos are also the favorites to win the AFC West.

But again, the Chargers are favored to win 11 or 12 games while the Broncos are only favored to win nine. I think there's value on San Diego, even though the Chiefs will surely win the division crown.