NFL Sunday: Game and Prop Thoughts

[The Peoples Champ]

Game 1: Houston (+7.5) at Baltimore:
I'm going to post the first game thoughts, then edit for the second game while the first one gets going.

I think if Baltimore plays to their absolute potential, this game isn't a close one, but know how inconsistent the Baltimore offense can be, I'd be hesitant to lay the 9 today.
Houston has only scored 29 TDs in the red zone this year, a brutal number that makes HOU First Score not a TD a decent value at +110, though I'd like it a bit higher if I could get it.
I'm also going to attack the total here, as I think the 36.5 can be well eclipsed, and the two models I have in this one have me sitting at 41 and 45, and GMS has this game capped at 54, but again, an anemic Baltimore offense combined with T.J. Yates on the other side could spell trouble.
There is also 72% of the money on the over for the folks that hate betting that way.

What are the thoughts here? Plan on throwing more props I like up once 5Dimes releases their player props, anyone found anything yet?

[The Peoples Champ]

No one betting the NFL today?

[DonFilet59]

My only two plays today will be Baltimore-7.5, and the over 53.5 in the Green Bay game. The total in the Baltimore game scares me, I could see the Texans scoring less than ten points, and the Ravens red zone offense worries me. As far as the Packers games, I know the public expects a shootout and I have to agree. The point spread keeps falling and if it gets to 7 I probably will have to take the Packers, fading the public with the Packers is not the worst scenario.

[fantasource]

I'm on the Packers today at -7'. I just think the GB offense + home field will be the difference. Lots of emotion on the Packers sidelines today, that could prove to be a motivator for the offense to never let up.
I might buy a half down to 7 if it doesn't drop there on its own.

If I had to pick a score I'd say GB 34-21. But I don't have a play on the total.

Good luck to everyone today.

[caseyd]

Just an FYI
Baltimore is laying 7.5 ev with Pinny.
Next step might be -7 with juice
It's worth monitoring if You are shopping the Ravens.

[JSpauny]

(01-15-2012 11:41 AM)The Peoples Champ Wrote:  No one betting the NFL today?

Haha, more like sleeping off that hangover as long as possible.

On the game: I agree with your take completely. If Bmore comes out and plays well this game could easily end 28-14 or something similar. Bmores inconsistency worries me but it is a home game so I expect them to win. I'm afraid of the hook on 7 so lucky last night 7.5 was juiced at -105 so I bought it down to -115 to lay a decent sized bet on 7. I like the over a lot. I liked the over when it opened at 37.5 and took it then so I liked it even more when it was at 35 and 36.

That seems like good value on the non-TD prop with Yates Qbing. Foster breaking a decent TD run would worry me, but I do like that bet.

[caseyd]

(01-15-2012 12:12 PM)caseyd Wrote:  Just an FYI
Baltimore is laying 7.5 ev with Pinny.
Next step might be -7 with juice
It's worth monitoring if You are shopping the Ravens.

Bought it back up to 7.5 -05 They grabbed the free juice

[JSpauny]

Quick note on that prop: BOL has a prop for first score of the game being Bal FG, Bal Pass, Bal Rush, etc..

The odds for Bal FG (+250) and Hou FG (+300) are much better than the bet you mentioned (first score non-TD). You lose the protection of the safety but lets be real, that is very, very unlikely.

For example:
If you bet non-TD you bet $100 to win $110

If you instead bet $100 on both first score Bal FG and first score Hou FG you have a bet for $100 to win $250 and $100 to win $300.

So as you can see you would win an extra $40 per $100 if a Bal FG is the first score and an extra $90 if a Hou FG is the first score.

It's much better value to place those two bets compared to the one non-TD bet. A tiny more risky losing the safety protection, but if you're going to place the non-TD bet I would recommend doing it the way I just mentioned. You will win more money if it happens.

[The Peoples Champ]

(01-15-2012 12:26 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  Quick note on that prop: BOL has a prop for first score of the game being Bal FG, Bal Pass, Bal Rush, etc..

The odds for Bal FG (+250) and Hou FG (+300) are much better than the bet you mentioned (first score non-TD). You lose the protection of the safety but lets be real, that is very, very unlikely.

For example:
If you bet non-TD you bet $100 to win $110

If you instead bet $100 on both first score Bal FG and first score Hou FG you have a bet for $100 to win $250 and $100 to win $300.

So as you can see you would win an extra $40 per $100 if a Bal FG is the first score and an extra $90 if a Hou FG is the first score.

It's much better value to place those two bets compared to the one non-TD bet. A tiny more risky losing the safety protection, but if you're going to place the non-TD bet I would recommend doing it the way I just mentioned. You will win more money if it happens.

Didn't think about it this way. Great point!

[JSpauny]

Just saw the line moved to Bal -8 with normal juice. I'm kind of surprised Bal -7.5 was getting a lot of money. I would have guessed the line would have moved down to Bal -7 with Hou+7.5 getting a lot of money.

[Spburn2]

I went with a 6 point teaser of the two favorites. It offers a lot better payout than just parlaying the two moneyline favorites, while I only have to take on the added risk that either team only wins by 1 point.

[JSpauny]

Nice. First score Hou FG. Good start. Hopefully it's not downhill from here.

[caseyd]

(01-15-2012 12:35 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  Just saw the line moved to Bal -8 with normal juice. I'm kind of surprised Bal -7.5 was getting a lot of money. I would have guessed the line would have moved down to Bal -7 with Hou+7.5 getting a lot of money.

Probably a combination of late public money and shoppers forced to buy Bal. -7.5 ait looked like 7.5 was the constant.

[louiemdj]

I had Ravens -7, and I jumped on Ravens -5.5 after the Texans first FG.

[JSpauny]

(01-15-2012 01:20 PM)louiemdj Wrote:  I had Ravens -7, and I jumped on Ravens -5.5 after the Texans first FG.

I should have done that. I waited. But I did get Hou +10. And I'm getting close to the zone where I can have a >7 point middle on the total (I have over 37.5).

[The Peoples Champ]

Going to go piss on my under ticket and hope for another just juice losing game, damnit.

[caseyd]

Showing 7's already at most sharp books for the NE game next week. Up 2 points from 48.5 supporting the over.

[The Peoples Champ]

I'm on Baltimore here. Had this line set as -3 for New England, never would have thought it would be set at a TD, and climb to 9 already. I know watching Baltimore's offense can make one squeamish, but I just not convinced the Pats are elite this season.

[oddsok]

I see 7.5 at the moment. I feel like NE are going to get a bit of public money because they play exciting football.