NFL Season Win Totals

[zman1415]

I was looking at 5D yesterday, and their season win totals match what was put out at one of the LV books, before any of the movement. For example, TB is at 6 wins, with under -120. According to a few of the articles I've read, the money came hard on the under and moved the over to +150 and under to like -180. Similar stories on Denver, New Orleans and opposite movement on Carolina. 5D appears to be behind the movement (maybe they just trust their lines?), but it brings me to two questions:

1) How good of a bet does something need to be for you to be willing to put money on it 8 months in advance (I'm assuming their lines will drift towards Vegas' but I don't really know how long that will take)?

2) Is there any place to find the CURRENT Vegas lines on season win totals? I can't seem to find them online, but if the lines difference is enough, it might be worth taking both sides and locking in value (although this goes back to #1).

[Beyond the Bets]

(05-27-2012 11:59 AM)zman1415 Wrote:  I was looking at 5D yesterday, and their season win totals match what was put out at one of the LV books, before any of the movement. For example, TB is at 6 wins, with under -120. According to a few of the articles I've read, the money came hard on the under and moved the over to +150 and under to like -180. Similar stories on Denver, New Orleans and opposite movement on Carolina. 5D appears to be behind the movement (maybe they just trust their lines?), but it brings me to two questions:

1) How good of a bet does something need to be for you to be willing to put money on it 8 months in advance (I'm assuming their lines will drift towards Vegas' but I don't really know how long that will take)?

2) Is there any place to find the CURRENT Vegas lines on season win totals? I can't seem to find them online, but if the lines difference is enough, it might be worth taking both sides and locking in value (although this goes back to #1).

I've written plenty on win totals on the main page. Search "NFL win totals" and you should find plenty of stuff on Cantor, MGM/Mirage, 5Dimes, BetOnline, etc.

LVH (formerly Hilton) will have totals out today at around noon PT. I'll be heading down to check 'em out and will report back.