NFL... Saturday?

[The Peoples Champ]

I'd like to start this thread off by leaving a piece of advice that may be ridiculous, unnecessary, beneath you, etc.:

Before you continue reading, remember how busy today and tomorrow and the rest of the week can be for everyone celebrating the Holiday. Take it from someone who rushed and forced the Houston teaser yesterday, and some basketball plays that I really didn't believe in, and even though I only lost a few cents with a split, it wasn't keep sound money management. Keep that in mind!

As for the card:

Tampa Bay +7.5- Locked this one after TSM posted their early card, and I'm starting to like it more and more. The public is pretty well entrenched on Carolina, but I just don't trust the Panthers, regardless of what Cam can do, and we all know how good he can be. I also see the under in play here, and if they under cashes, I see this one being a low scoring, ugly affair, with TB keeping it inside the number. Sorry, this is what happens when you are watching DVR'd NFL Network shows while capping games. Totally screwed the last line up. TB's defense is horrific as you guys have pointed out, but I still like Tampa here, and wish I would have got it at 9. I'm exhausted, only hopped back on to clarify this. I will expound more in the AM.

San Diego +2 at Detroit

Call me a believer or an idiot, but I love Rivers and company in December, and they are still in the clusterfuck of a division race that is the AFC West. One nice thing with betting against DET is that you can always count on a penalty or two to keep drives alive, and then can become huge for Rivers, who has that great quick strike ability. Seems like this is a rare public dog spot, but Detroit has given up 28, 27, and 31 points the last three weeks, and I think SD can put up that many, if not more, and I'll be putting a little on the ML, as well.

Game I'm Staying Away From:
Denver at Buffalo: I think Buffalo can win here, but have they quit playing for Chan Gailey as BTB alluded to? I'm still not sold on Tebow, but the Broncos D could certainly get the job done, and if the Bills haven't quit, can they mount anything? Just no feeling.

Oakland at Kansas City (-1)
Oakland has been awful in the last couple weeks of the season historically, posting a brutal 23-43 mark against the spread since 1992 per scoresandodds, I also love Romeo Crennel, so take that in to account, but I really just think KC gets it done just like earlier in the season, even if it was Palmer's first game for Oakland. Oakland has to be deflated after pissing away the lead last week in Detroit, and with Orton saying last week was the "most fun he's ever had on a football field," I think this week might be better against Oakland's horrid secondary.

Goodluck guys!

[JSpauny]

I like the TB pick. I like it even more at the +9 I saw it at earlier today. I'm waiting on that to see if it can creep up to 10. Love the SD pick as well. I will be playing that.

I'm also waiting to see if Oakland will get to +3. I'm not taking it at any number below 3. Not so much that I like Oakland, moreso that I just see this being a letdown for KC. Coming off a huge, huge victory and Denver next week. I know they still need to win this but I don't see them winning this by much.

I already posted that I am on NYG +3 and Ari +4.5. Both instances being that I think they're the better teams (though not by much) and both games should finish close so I'll take the points everytime.

This might be the first time all season that I actually back my Rams. The Rams have a deceptively good defense (I know it doesn't seem like it but trust me they do) and Charlie Batch isn't scaring anyone. I think this will be a close game (7-10) so I'm looking to take the Rams +12.5. However, with Pitt being a pretty public team and everyone knowing the Rams suck I see this line moving in my favor tomorrow morning so I'm going to hold off until then. I am also taking the Under 34.5. I don't love it but I honestly can't see either team scoring more than 20 in this game. I would love to parlay the Rams +12.5 and the Under 34.5 but stupid fucking correlated parlays aren't allowed. Maybe its the Xmas spirit, maybe its the alcohol, but I'm finally backing the Rams +12.5 tomorrow.

Have a merry Christmas everyone. Make that money.

[marcowill]

Quote:Their defense can hang with anyone, IMO, allowing Freeman and co. multiple chances to get within striking range of a win.

I've been lurking for a few weeks, but I had to sign up for an account after I read that line.

Tampa's defense has been God awful this season. People don't notice it because of Josh Freeman's woes, but they are next to last in PPG (28.6) and 30th in YPG. They've allowed 30+ points in five out of their last six games, including Carolina @ Tampa. Yes, I think the public is drunk on the Cammy Cam juice, but if Tampa covers, it will have to do more with Newton being a rookie and not this stellar Bucs defense.

With that said, hello to everyone and Happy Holidays.

[gatorx]

I like that Rams idea... especially it moving due to public $. I love the Chargers this week, Cowherd just confirmed it. Lions not impressive at home anyway.

Really like Seattle being a +2 dog at home. Like that ML even. Really huge game for the hawks to stay alive... 49ers have division on lock and are beat up. The last week version of myself would argue that "hey, the 49ers have home field to play for!" But the Ravens, Steelers and Texans (twice) have made me believe no one seems give a flying fuck about home field. So Im going with the jacked up Seahawks at home vs. a limp 49ers.

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Yes... can you back up that TB can hang with anyone? I don follow them close but all I hear is how their run defense is a sieve. Cue Newton, Williams & Stewart...

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I want to back the Chiefs... I think Oakland is done. Palmer (bust trade of the century?) is bad and their D is getting worse.. given up 34 (Miami) and 46 (GB) the last two weeks... hell they gave up 20 to Caleb Hanie the week before that. Chiefs with new life under Crennel and find themselves still alive for the playoffs. They take care of business at home.

[The Peoples Champ]

Clarified the TB line, sorry about that, guys. Shouldn't have read that way, somewhere between watching DVR'd NFLN, talking on the phone, and screwing around with other things, I totally lost my mind.

TB's defense is God awul as Marco described, and yes, especially against the run, gator.

I have no real reason for liking the Bucs here, just like the fact that the line should keep rising, and I see it as a close, shitfest of a game.

As for your Rams pick Marco, I thought about including that in my original post, but am still wavering on them. A good buddy of mine that is an avid Steelers fan would is considering betting STL, and he has only bet a game or two max involving the Steelers, so that says something. Even with that, though, I'm not entirely sure I want my money tied up with Batch vs. Clemens.

Welcome to the forum, Marco, glad that my complete and blatant error brought ya aboard!

[louiemdj]

As much as I want to back the Rams, I probably won't. Problem is that Charlie Batch is better than what we saw last week from Rapelisberber. Rams have played hard down the stretch regardless of their season being over a long time ago, but the Steelers still need to win this game and it's at home so I'll most likely stay away and wish I would have bet once the Rams cover.

One of my plays tomorrow is probably going to be Under 38 in the Browns/Ravens game. The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing loss on MNF, and they should be fired up and ready to play. The Browns offense will be lucky to break double digits, and their defense is capable of keeping the Ravens to around 20 points.

Also leaning Chargers +2 and Philly +2. Both teams are on fire and are capable of putting up a lot of points. They also still have mathematical chances of getting in the playoffs. On the other hand, Dallas has shit the bed on a pretty consistent basis, even their own coach ices his kicker. And the Lions have proven to be the Lions after the hot start. They are as undisciplined as a high school team (coaches fault imo), and they have struggled playing at home this year.

Last but not least, probably going to tail So Money and take the Dolphins +10 vs the Patriots. I don't really see Miami pulling off the improbable upset here, but they still have a pretty good defense, and their balanced offense could be just pesky enough to keep this one close.

Good Luck and Happy Holidays. And thank God for NFL Network on my cell phone so I can get through the day tomorrow.

[mchurch21]

Gotta love so money for the fins. Like it a lot after that Denver beatdown. Ne doesn't care toooo much right now and they shouldn't. Don't let Welker or co. tear another ACL, and play enough to win or not lose momentum.

Being from kc I should ride my chiefs but last week was the only week I backed em and it was to not lose by 14+ again at home. Though playing for Crennel and Orton and somehow the playoffs should be enough being a homer makes me worry. I'm still dumb enough to prolly do it.

We'll see where lines move but for now I'm paying attention to:
Seattle as that line keeps moving. If it gets to a pk (sf -1 now) ill lay off.
Philly in a game I think they win by 3. That line is asking for Dallas $ and Noone is budging.
Nyg in a game to finally shut up the fighting rex's. Stayed at 3 basically. Hoping public is just waiting and something moves by kickoff.
Nevertheless, dogs hit big the last two weeks, so sharps prolly hit too. Vegas is prolly adjusting appropriately.

[gatorx]

Morning yall,

Few games I am considering but no one has talked about: Minny ML or at least getting a TD @ Washington. Wash coming off a big win, beating the Giants but with nothing really to play for going forward. Minnesota has been pretty bad but developing some more weapons with Gerhardt, Ponder is improving, Harvin, and finally of course AP now back from injury. I wish I had enough record keeping skills to say what the Vikes have been ATS since the bye week, but I will say that they've lost by move than one score 3 times to ATL, NO and GB. All solid playoff teams. They've played Det, Oak & Denver to one score games. I dare say that Washington is the worst team they've played in 6 weeks. Just feels like a Vikes win to me. Thoughts?

I keep wanting to pull the trigger on KC at home

Interesting note: I teased the Seahawks and Chargers to over a TD (+8) since both are at +2 right now. In games a lot of smart people like those teams to win straight up, I thought snagging a full TD while still getting -110 odds for the parlay was nice.

[jimmysingh9]

I am heading out to the bills game but here a thought that crossed my mind.


parlaying playoff scenarios

broncos/chiefs/lions. broncos and chiefs win and chargers are out
jets/eagles. jets win, eagles in must win, cowboys can clinch with win, but if they lose, they can still beat giants next week and are in.

giants/cowboys. eagles would be out but the game means nothing to the cowboys either as they still have to win the following week


felix jones looks like he is going to be out. Dallas down to sammy morris. that is what was reported, hasnt been confirmed

[gatorx]

(12-24-2011 09:53 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I am heading out to the bills game but here a thought that crossed my mind.


parlaying playoff scenarios

broncos/chiefs/lions. broncos and chiefs win and chargers are out
jets/eagles. jets win, eagles in must win, cowboys can clinch with win, but if they lose, they can still beat giants next week and are in.

giants/cowboys. eagles would be out but the game means nothing to the cowboys either as they still have to win the following week


felix jones looks like he is going to be out. Dallas down to sammy morris. that is what was reported, hasnt been confirmed

Are the Chargers out if Chiefs win? KC would be 7-8 and are 1-1 vs. Chargers

If Broncs win, they are 9-6 but that wouldn't mathematically eliminate SD would it? SD & Den can still finish 9-7... unless Im missing some tie breaker scenarios...

I agree with your NFC playoff scenarios but I dont think the AFCW can be decided at all today. Chargers lose and their out, but if they win I think they're still in it no matter what. right?

[JayPrimetown]

If the Giants win, Eagles are eliminated... no?

[Tommy Under]

(12-24-2011 10:42 AM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  If the Giants win, Eagles are eliminated... no?

That's correct, yet another reason why I like Dallas -1.

The Eagles public perception has soared the past two weeks, but I really don't think they are as good as people think they are. In their win against the Jets, Santonio Holmes had two costly mistakes on the Jets first two drives: a fumble that was returned for 6, and a ball that tipped off in his hands for an int when the Jets were in the red zone (he also had a big 15 yard penalty for celebrating after the Jets cut the lead to 13). The result of the game was more due to costly Jets mistakes than Philadelphia's explosiveness. There's really no reason a 8-6 team should only be a 1 point favorite over a 6-8 team at home. I'm taking Dallas.

[mchurch21]

Oak is in if they win last two and San Diego loses one. San Diego in if they win two and Denver loses one. Kc in if they win last 2, San Diego loses one and Denver loses two. Broncs in charge of own destiny

[Beyond the Bets]

Bills win outright.

[The Peoples Champ]

Anyone else not able to correlate Jets and Eagles in a parlay?

[JSpauny]

Looks like I read the Rams situation completely wrong. They're down to 10.5 right now. Queue up another fade if that gets to 10. And I was actually going to bet on them. Son of a bitch.

[The Peoples Champ]

Can't justify taking Miami at +7.5 when I could have had it at 9.5. Damn.

[JSpauny]

(12-24-2011 11:57 AM)The Peoples Champ Wrote:  Can't justify taking Miami at +7.5 when I could have had it at 9.5. Damn.

So Money's tweet late last night was finally sold me on the pick. I was looking at it all week unable to pull the trigger until So Money chimed in. So glad I got it at 9.5. I'd be worried at 7.5.

[Weebay]

As long as Miami doesn't cross 7 its still a good bet.

[The Peoples Champ]

(12-24-2011 12:14 PM)Weebay Wrote:  As long as Miami doesn't cross 7 its still a good bet.

This is true, but for teaser purposes, you've lost 14 unless you throw it in a 10 point one, which I didn't plan on doing. I think I'll sit that one out. I like the play, just don't like it at 2.5 points less than what I could have had.