NFL Replacement Refs

[EastCoastATS]

Should we be looking at the over if the nfl season starts with replacement refs? Replacement refs going to call less penalties due to lack of experiance?

[illadelphia]

(08-01-2012 05:12 PM)EastCoastATS Wrote:  Should we be looking at the over if the nfl season starts with replacement refs? Replacement refs going to call less penalties due to lack of experiance?

Not sure about the effect on the total. However I did read an article by Mike Pereira on the NFL referee contract situation.

Quote:The replacement officials are going to make a lot more mistakes than the regular officials. Many more mistakes will be made not only in the area of judgment but also in game management, including timing and rules interpretation.

So, for those of you that say the integrity of the game is already at risk with the regular officials, it will be a lot more at risk with this group of replacements. If I am a quarterback in the NFL, I would be a little nervous about putting my protection in the hands of a referee with no NFL experience as opposed to a regular NFL referee who averages 14.9 years of experience.

Let's take it a step further. Who are the replacement officials? Are they coming from a group that includes the next wave of highly trained people that will be brought into the NFL ranks? Not even close!

There are officials with high school experience only. There are officials who were dropped from their college conference. Three officials from the Pac-12 Conference that were not rehired this season for performance reasons are now going to work NFL games.

Think about it: They weren't good enough for the Pac-12, but they are good enough to be trusted to work in the NFL.

There are semi-pro officials who are scheduled to work NFL games, too. There are even retired college officials — most of whom have been out of the game for many years — among the NFL’s group of replacements.

There will not be a single official that I know of under consideration by the NFL that is currently working in any of the major college conferences.

Who is training the replacements? Not the current NFL trainers. This esteemed group that includes former referees Jerry Markbreit and Red Cashion, former umpires Jim Quirk and Ron Botchan, former line of scrimmage officials Sid Semon and Ben Montgomery, and former deep officials Dean Look, Tom Fincken and Bill Schmitz has decided — for the right reason — that it will not work with the replacements.

These highly regarded veterans understand the officiating labor impasse will eventually be settled, and they do not want to jeopardize the good relationship with the officials they work with now.

This means there are now nine fewer people training the inexperienced replacement group the NFL has assembled. The men mentioned above are nine trainers representing 265 years of experience and 22 worked Super Bowls.

It’s important to note these trainers weren't fired by the NFL. They were told by the league that they are “seasonal” employees, and I guess it is not their season. They also had to turn in their NFL-issued computers, which contained their training materials.

[Skating Tripods]

I would imagine that penalties would increase because they won't want to be that guy who misses an egregious call. Then again, penalties could decrease because they'll be scared to call them and make the wrong call.

Hard to say, really. I think until we see the way that they're calling games, it's not very beneficial to make assumptions.

[ChiefZilla]

Does more or less penalties even have an effect on totals? There are offensive and defensive penalties, and I would assume that, if anything, more penalties leads to more points since it seems like the majority of calls go against the defense.

Penalties also stop the clock.

I'm not sure why we're assuming less penalties would equal more points. Unless there's some study I'm unaware of.

[RickRude]

(08-02-2012 05:00 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Does more or less penalties even have an effect on totals? There are offensive and defensive penalties, and I would assume that, if anything, more penalties leads to more points since it seems like the majority of calls go against the defense.

Penalties also stop the clock.

I'm not sure why we're assuming less penalties would equal more points. Unless there's some study I'm unaware of.

It depends on the penalty. An offensive penalty really hurts, but if they call a bunch of PI and Defensive holding we could see a leap in points. Have to agree that there wouldn't be much correlation between penalties and less scoring or more scoring. Of course I don't know the real answer.

[Beyond the Bets]

From the LA Times:

According to referee Ed Hochuli, when replacement officials worked games in 2001, they threw between one and five penalty flags per game. He said there were between 12 and 14 penalties called in a typical game last season.

"It's nice when we're not interfering with a game, I think we all would agree with that," Hochuli said. "But we also know that when there are no penalties, there is no game. You've lost the competitive nature of the game if it's not being controlled."

[illadelphia]

(08-03-2012 01:03 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  From the LA Times:

According to referee Ed Hochuli, when replacement officials worked games in 2001, they threw between one and five penalty flags per game. He said there were between 12 and 14 penalties called in a typical game last season.

"It's nice when we're not interfering with a game, I think we all would agree with that," Hochuli said. "But we also know that when there are no penalties, there is no game. You've lost the competitive nature of the game if it's not being controlled."

Holy smokes! So it's going to be like "The Longest Yard" out there this year.

Finally Mike Vick's prison time can be put to use on Sundays!!!!

[Skating Tripods]

I'm still not sure how to take this then. More holding calls will go unnoticed (as if enough don't already), but also, WRs and DBs will both be pushing off of each other all day long and big, physical WRs will have a serious advantage.

I still think they're err on the side of caution more often than not with roughing the passer.

Think we could see injuries go up. Clipping, chop blocks, unnecessary roughness away from the play.

In terms of betting implications...no idea.

[paperstacks1980]

i dont think it will make much of a difference just more leniency about holding i would think

[williemayes24]

The flags for concussion protection certainly changed the tempo.
Will the replacements be drilled to lean heavily on this mandate?

The speed of the players has to be an adjustment for a college level ref.

Plus not knowing each other's style has to hurt.(The ref crews travel as a team)

It looks to me like the NFL might be putting themselves in jeopardy by using replacements.

God forbid a player gets paralyzed during a lockout.

[illadelphia]

One of the replacements is.....a woman

She will be working the Packers v Chargers preseason game this week, per ESPN