NFL Props At 5Dimes....

[Betropolitan]

I would like to begin a discussion on two particular topics...

1. Odds to win all 8 divisions (win division/field wins division)

AEast
Pats -330/+270 -340/+280
Jets +600/-900 +650/-1000
Bills +775/-1200 +800/-12000
Mia +1900/-2900 +1600/-2500

ANorth
Pitt +135/-155
Balt +140/-160
Cin +420/-535
Cle +4000/-7000 +3800/-6600

ASouth
Hou -450/+360
Tenn +490/-680
Jags +2400/-3800 +2500/-4000
Ind +3000/-5000 +3300/-5600

AWest
Den +170/-200 +180/-220
SD +180/-220 +185/-225
KC +380/-475 +350/-440
Oak +560/-820 +520/-740

NEast
Phi +140/-160 +145/-165
NYG +205/-245 +210/-250
Dal +280/-340 +270/-330
Wash +1400/-2500 +1300/-2150

NNorth
GB -260/+220
Chi +470/-640 +525/-750
Det +570/-840 +515/-730
Viks +4000/-7000 +3500/-6000

NSouth
NO +130/-150
ATL +140/-160 +130/-150
Car +560/-820
TB +1350/-2000

NWest
SF -225/+185 -230/+190
Sea +425/-550 +450/-600
Ari +775/-1200 +800/-1250
Stl +1000/-1500

2. Odds on each individual team to make the playoffs (make playoffs/miss playoffs)

AFC:

Balt -170/+130 -180/+140

Buf +170/-230 +150/-190

Cin +210/-290

Cle +1000/-2000

Den +100/-140

Hou -750/+450

Ind +1050/-2150

Jax +800/-1700

KC +195/-275

Mia +350/-530

NE -900/+500

NYJ +130/-170

Oak +300/-420

Pitt -180/+140

SD +100/-140 -135/-105

Tenn +280/-400

NFC:

ATL -145/+105

Car +310/-430

Chi -105/-135 -140/+100

Dal +145/-185

Det -110/-130 +120/-160

GB -735/+445

Min +825/-1725

NO -160/+120

NYG +105/-145

Phi -155/+115

SF -280/+200

Sea +320/-460

STL +700/-1500

TB +505/-915

Wash +505/-915

I think they are both real interesting topics and they disappear and reappear every morning after Pre-Season games I believe...And they will all expire by 9/5 (Giants-Cowboys opener)...I think this is a interesting futures market topic.

[Betropolitan]

You would have to think if you are taking SF...you would go -225 to win division before you went -280 to make playoffs...if they falter in division, hard to see them clinging on to a wildcard bid...

If you prescribe to theory TB does well this year (last to first)... Then difference between +1350 and +505 is a ton...I tell you this I would not ever, ever think about the -915 on TB NOT to make playoffs...First game of year very big in NFC South, Bucs at home vs Carolina...Because Bucs get @NYG, @DAL & vs NO in the first 7 weeks of the year...

My personal opinion...right off the bat, I am a Giants fan and I think best bet on board may be -145 on them not to make playoffs (-245 not to win division, with worst team being very formidable Washington)...Their schedule is absolutely brutal...vs Cle week 5, vs Wash week 7 & vs TB week 2 is about it for probably win...I am being honest, look at this:

vs Dal, vs TB, @Car, @Phi, vs Cle, @SF, vs Wash, @Dal, vs Pitt, @Cin, BYE, vs GB, @Wash, vs NO, @ATL, @Balt, vs PHI

That is brutal....

These were just few things I noticed off the bat...

[Beyond the Bets]

Wrote about this on the main page last week, but teams coming off last-place finishes seem to have value in these divisional props.

Browns +4000
Buccaneers +1350
Chiefs +380
Colts +3000
Dolphins* +1900
Rams +1000
Redskins +1400
Vikings +4000

*The Bills (+775) finished tied with the Dolphins.

Since realignment in 2002, 13 teams have made worst-to-first turnarounds, an average of roughly 1.5 teams per season. Last year, the Broncos were the only team (15/1 odds).

From 2002 through 2005, eight teams (two per year) won their divisions after finishing in last place the previous year, and at least one team has gone worst-to-first in each of the last nine years.

If the trend continues and at least one of the teams listed above wins their division, there’s a good chance you’d turn a profit simply by betting on each of the last-place teams. (You’d take roughly a 4-unit hit if the Chiefs were the lone team.)

If multiple last-place teams win, you should turn a serious profit.

* * *

NFL teams that went from worst-to-first (since realignment in 2002):

Chiefs (2003)
Panthers (2003)
Falcons (2004)
Chargers (2004)
Bears (2005)
Bucs (2005)
Eagles (2006)
Saints (2006)
Bucs (2007)
Dolphins (2008)
Saints (2009)
Chiefs (2010)
Broncos (2011)

[Betropolitan]

(08-08-2012 01:41 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Wrote about this on the main page last week, but teams coming off last-place finishes seem to have value in these divisional props.

Browns +4000
Buccaneers +1350
Chiefs +380
Colts +3000
Dolphins* +1900
Rams +1000
Redskins +1400
Vikings +4000

*The Bills (+775) finished tied with the Dolphins.

Since realignment in 2002, 13 teams have made worst-to-first turnarounds, an average of roughly 1.5 teams per season. Last year, the Broncos were the only team (15/1 odds).

From 2002 through 2005, eight teams (two per year) won their divisions after finishing in last place the previous year, and at least one team has gone worst-to-first in each of the last nine years.

If the trend continues and at least one of the teams listed above wins their division, there’s a good chance you’d turn a profit simply by betting on each of the last-place teams. (You’d take roughly a 4-unit hit if the Chiefs were the lone team.)

If multiple last-place teams win, you should turn a serious profit.

* * *

NFL teams that went from worst-to-first (since realignment in 2002):

Chiefs (2003)
Panthers (2003)
Falcons (2004)
Chargers (2004)
Bears (2005)
Bucs (2005)
Eagles (2006)
Saints (2006)
Bucs (2007)
Dolphins (2008)
Saints (2009)
Chiefs (2010)
Broncos (2011)

What if we cut...Browns/Colts/Dolphins/Vikings (those four are up for argument) but it increases our profits and probably takes away a team or two that does not have chance...

[Beyond the Bets]

What if Luck comes in and crushes it? I mean, absolutely crushes it. Does it seem improbable? Of course it does. But I once saw Matt Ryan take over a 4-12 Falcons team that many called "gutted" and "three years away" and took them to the playoffs in Year 1.

[Betropolitan]

(08-08-2012 01:53 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  What if Luck comes in and crushes it? I mean, absolutely crushes it. Does it seem improbable? Of course it does. But I once saw Matt Ryan take over a 4-12 Falcons team that many called "gutted" and "three years away" and took them to the playoffs in Year 1.

mmmm....definitely agree with you...I would say Colts have better shot to shock than Vikings/Browns/Dolphins though...

Next thought: Saints NOT to win NFC South at -150...plenty of talent in that division & they get NFC East, AFC West + @GB/vs SF...Not awful odds if you ask me...

[VincentValour]

Yeah it's tough to ever see a division bottom dweller take a division, yet it happens every year. But I think if we look at what happened in each case, most of the time it was either a huge stroke of luck with foes injuries, or a pitiful division, or a progression of a team off injuries.

I may eat my words but the only team I see (without a huge injury to a foe) is Kansas City due to progression off injuries and a mediocre division. But I also think the 49ers miss the playoffs and one of the other teams takes the division. Think the best quarterback play takes it, I played Arizona at +800 and am looking to play Seattle after week 8, so I'm hoping Skelton or Flynn has a decent year.

[Beyond the Bets]

Relative to the Chiefs, keep in mind that they're the only AFC West team that plays two of their first three games on the road. They'll also be underdogs in each of their first three games. Meanwhile, the Chargers will be favored in their first three games and will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in Week 4.

In my opinion, the best time to bet the Chiefs in both futures and to win the division will be after Week 3.

Unless the Chiefs start 3-0 and look razor sharp, I'm extremely certain you'll be able to get them somewhere between 6/1 and 10/1 if you wait. The public will load up on the Chargers and Broncos if either of those teams starts hot, and it's likely one of them will start 2-1 or 3-0. The Chiefs have a favorable schedule down the stretch (last six games or so), and if they win the West, it'll be because they finish strong (think 4-2 or 5-1).

[Betropolitan]

(08-08-2012 02:15 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  Yeah it's tough to ever see a division bottom dweller take a division, yet it happens every year. But I think if we look at what happened in each case, most of the time it was either a huge stroke of luck with foes injuries, or a pitiful division, or a progression of a team off injuries.

I may eat my words but the only team I see (without a huge injury to a foe) is Kansas City due to progression off injuries and a mediocre division. But I also think the 49ers miss the playoffs and one of the other teams takes the division. Think the best quarterback play takes it, I played Arizona at +800 and am looking to play Seattle after week 8, so I'm hoping Skelton or Flynn has a decent year.

No love for the Rams...I was looking at division and was thinking about fading SF too (said above, if I were to take SF I would go the -225 division route...but value is high on fade)...but possibly leaving Ari out & taking SEA +425 (+320)//Stl +1000 (+700) to win division (make playoffs)...Looks like we both may agree SF is a good fade for division, but like a few different teams...

Based on fact I like ATL/CAR/TB in NSouth...fading NO would be better move than picking and choosing between 3 teams...

Consider fading Broncos as well...call me crazy, but other than OAK (who at times can be a pain...maybe), KC & SD should be tough for PM...Speaking of absolutely brutal schedules...the Broncos schedule will give them absolute fits this year...The ONLY saving grace their schedule hands them is their final two games at home vs CLE/vs KC...

vs Pit, @ATL, vs HOU, vs OAK, @NE, @SD, BYE, vs NO, @CIN, @CAR, vs SD, @KC, vs TB, @OAK, @BALT, vs CLE, vs KC

Organized thoughts at moment:

Against NYG Division/Playoffs

Against SF Division... For Sea/Stl Division/Playoffs?

Against NO Division/Playoffs...TB Division/Playoffs?

Against DEN Division (more than Playoffs)...

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-08-2012 02:33 AM)Betropolitan Wrote:  Based on fact I like ATL/CAR/TB in NSouth...fading NO would be better move than picking and choosing between 3 teams...

Almost impossible for me to fade NO at that price. The Falcons don't excite me, the Panthers still seem a year away and I don't think the Bucs can compete just yet.

[Betropolitan]

(08-08-2012 02:35 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(08-08-2012 02:33 AM)Betropolitan Wrote:  Based on fact I like ATL/CAR/TB in NSouth...fading NO would be better move than picking and choosing between 3 teams...

Almost impossible for me to fade NO at that price. The Falcons don't excite me, the Panthers still seem a year away and I don't think the Bucs can compete just yet.

If we agreed there was a kink in NO armor, which you may be right & NO may skate through this division...you would rather go CAR (+560)/TB (+1350) to win division...than waste time -150 on field if ATL may be year away & false contender...just a thought

[Beyond the Bets]

Of all the divisions in the NFL, the NFC South is the one I want no part of. Since realignment in 2002, the NFC South has had exactly zero repeat champions. All four teams have won the division at least twice in the last nine years.

In that respect, perhaps your Field -150 bet has merit. But again, I'd much rather guess right on the team that WILL win than guess wrong on the team that WON'T and have it cost me 1.5 units.

[Betropolitan]

(08-08-2012 02:45 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Of all the divisions in the NFL, the NFC South is the one I want no part of. Since realignment in 2002, the NFC South has had exactly zero repeat champions. All four teams have won the division at least twice in the last nine years.

In that respect, perhaps your Field -150 bet has merit. But again, I'd much rather guess right on the team that WILL win than guess wrong on the team that WON'T and have it cost me 1.5 units.

Valid pt losing 1.5 units on something that will NOT happen...but was definitely looking at it from the field bet pt of view based on all 4 teams winning twice in 9 yrs...and parody of division...

Could look at it as taking the -150 on NO NOT to win division + small % bets on TB/CAR to win division...

[VincentValour]

Like BTB said with the Chiefs, really like the idea of waiting on these props until the value is awesome. If I remember last year the AFC West had many different teams getting a division +500 price throughout the year. Arbitrage was very easy on that one.

If we get this prop/future watching up, I really want to plan for when the value of these props/futures will be at the greatest.

I like Seattle as well, but the first 8 games are brutal so if they go into week 9 at 2-6 or 3-5, that division +price should be pretty substantial. 9-7 or 8-8 probably takes that division.

[SkyBlues42]

(08-08-2012 02:58 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  I like Seattle as well, but the first 8 games are brutal so if they go into week 9 at 2-6 or 3-5, that division +price should be pretty substantial. 9-7 or 8-8 probably takes that division.

This. There should be much better value later in the year. No need to jump on a team like Seattle right now, unless you're willing to bet their win total.

[Turnstone Money]

Your going to give me the Broncos at +175 with Peyton? I have to take a long look at that because it almost seems like a positive when you have San Diego in your division still with Norv Turner. I know I read before that Denver has a brutal schedule though. They don't play a team with a losing record from last year until week 10 or something.

Houston is one injury away from screwing up, which we say every year, and then it seems to happen. In that case +3000 on the Colts seems like it would have to have the most value.

[illadelphia]

(08-08-2012 07:14 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  

(08-08-2012 02:58 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  I like Seattle as well, but the first 8 games are brutal so if they go into week 9 at 2-6 or 3-5, that division +price should be pretty substantial. 9-7 or 8-8 probably takes that division.

This. There should be much better value later in the year. No need to jump on a team like Seattle right now, unless you're willing to bet their win total.

Some interesting things with Seattle's schedule this year:

Their first 3 divisional games are all on the road, while their last 3 are at home. Those final 3 divisional games are in the last 4 weeks of the season (week 15 is @ the Bills)

They only play one team off a bye - Jets in week 10 and that is right before their own bye in week 11.

They have 3 sets of back to back home games. Interestingly each one of those 3 b2b home stands is followed by a b2b road set. I will be keeping an eye out to see if they opt to remain on the road rather than flying back to Seattle between any of the b2b road games.

With everyone and their marble brother on the 49ers bandwagon, I think there is some current value on Seattle to win NFC West & to make the playoffs. But i also agree with the thought that better value may be had during the season.

[Betropolitan]

Probably have to agree with all this "Seahawks wait" talk...but if I am going to take the Seahawks future (either playoffs or division) and I thought of it as this...:

The full money I would put on Seahawks future (I would hope) by years end = 100%

I would probably but 10-15% of my future bet pre-season...even still knowing the 1st 3 divisional games are on road + "Those final 3 divisional games are in the last 4 weeks of the season (week 15 is @ the Bills)"

But their schedule is very odd...as you have noted, so definitely will keep track...

[mattrud]

(08-08-2012 01:41 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Wrote about this on the main page last week, but teams coming off last-place finishes seem to have value in these divisional props.

Browns +4000
Buccaneers +1350
Chiefs +380
Colts +3000
Dolphins* +1900
Rams +1000
Redskins +1400
Vikings +4000

Since realignment in 2002, 13 teams have made worst-to-first turnarounds, an average of roughly 1.5 teams per season.

From 2002 through 2005, eight teams (two per year) won their divisions after finishing in last place the previous year, and at least one team has gone worst-to-first in each of the last nine years.

If the trend continues and at least one of the teams listed above wins their division, there’s a good chance you’d turn a profit simply by betting on each of the last-place teams. (You’d take roughly a 4-unit hit if the Chiefs were the lone team.)

If multiple last-place teams win, you should turn a serious profit.

Love stuff like this. I actually placed a few of these already, but I didn't know the exact stats.

When I see something like this, though, I hate blindly betting on all of them. I guess I'm more of a risk-taker than some, but I like just picking out a few and making slightly bigger bets, rather than just putting, say, one "unit" on each.

My thoughts:

Browns +4000

At 40-1? Sign me up. We don't know what to expect from Weeden/Richardson, but they have a semblance of a defense and now actually some offensive talent. Don't bet the house, but, c'mon. 40-1 is worth a flier.

Buccaneers +1350

They were set up for disaster last year. Now Freeman is getting those "he's rededicated" stories, and he was good before. A lot of his picks last year were bad luck. Doug Martin's a nice addition. Decent talent. Again, worth a flier.

Chiefs +380

As BTB said, probably makes sense to wait. No need to blindly bet them just because of these stats.

Colts +3000

I'd be shocked if they won the division. Legitimately shocked. Go for it if you want, but I just don't see it.

Dolphins* +1900

Tannehill/Moore to Bess? Championship? Deep stable of backs, OK defense, 0% chance of beating the Pats. Just not worth it.

Rams +1000

I'd like better than 10/1 on a team that was this inept last season. Can't blame you for taking a flier, but I think you're better off checking out the Seahawks or Cardinals if you think the Niners are overvalued (which I'm undecided on personally, at this point).

Redskins +1400

Love it. Is it likely a rookie QB is winning this division? No. But they're way better than given credit for, and the rest of the division is really good, but not even close to invincible. Skins are always competitive for much of the season, even without a quarterback. Now they have one. And even kind of a receiving corps. Those were always their problems.

I bet on Skins NFC 'ship and Super Bowl, too, a while ago.

Vikings +4000

It's hard for me to tell you not to bet on a team 40-1 to win a division. Those odds are pretty ridiculous. But... c'mon. Look at their division. I'm not dumb enough to think the Packers are a sure thing... but is either the Packers, Bears, OR Lions winning this thing a sure thing? Almost. Not worth throwing money away, in my opinion.

[jimmysingh9]

Honestly, not overhyping the game today. but the best value knowing that Andrew Luck will be at least adequate would be Colts +3000.

The reason is no team is a runaway to win the division. Tenn and Jaks both have major questions. Houston will be the best team, but they lost some parts on defense and aren't invincible.

Every other Division, I can see a front runner or two teams better than the highest odd team.