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[VincentValour]

As said before Spanishredeye, Jspauny, and I put to together a bunch of stuff on the NFL. Not sure which thread to put it in, so just started one instead. Feel free to add whatever NFL stuff to the thread. Sorry the first page is a pdf, it was the only way I could post it.

Stock Buy/Sell chart. + Tough schedule spots.

[Wiseguy]

VV, the links not working for me.

[SkyBlues42]

Says we have to sign in:

"Error (403)

It seems you don't belong here! You should probably sign in. Check out our Help Center and forums for help, or head back to home."

[spanishredeye]

Try this: https://docs.google.com/document/d/17CaF...t4adw/edit

[Wiseguy]

(08-02-2012 08:50 AM)spanishredeye Wrote:  Try this: https://docs.google.com/document/d/17CaF...t4adw/edit

Good to go. Nice job guys, I really like this.

[VincentValour]

whoops my bad, i'll remove the link nice job redeye

[illadelphia]

Nice work fellas!!

I this project.

[VincentValour]

Win totals based off power rankings.


Arizona 6.94
Atlanta 8.82
Baltimore 9.01
Buffalo 7.54
Carolina 6.93
Chicago 9.09
Cincy 7.42
Cleve. 5.2
Dallas 8.30
Denver 8.74
Detroit 8.89
Green Bay 11.33
Houston 10.38
Indy 6.04
Jax. 4.81
Kansas City 8.11
Miami 7.61
Minny 5.66
New England 11.54
New Orleans 10.28
NY Giants 9.80
NY Jets 7.76
Oakland 6.98
Philly 9.6
Pittsburgh 10.15
San Diego 8.03
San Fran. 9.51
Seattle 7.18
St Louis 5.31
Tampa Bay 5.47
Tenn. 7.15
Wash. 6.28

Win totals based off WLT. Spreads -3.5 (more than 60% likely win) or more are counted 1 win, spreads -3 to +3 are counted .5 win, and spreads +3.5 or more counted 0 wins (less than 40% likely win) Refer to spread/ML conversion chart for likely win percentages.


Arizona 5.5
Atlanta 10
Baltimore 9.5
Buffalo 7.5
Carolina 6.5
Chicago 10.5
Cincy 6.5
Cleve. 2.5
Dallas 7.5
Denver 9.5
Detroit 9.5
Green Bay 14
Houston 12
Indy 5.5
Jax. 2
Kansas City 8.5
Miami 7
Minny 3
New England 15.5
New Orleans 12.5
NY Giants 11.5
NY Jets 8
Oakland 5.5
Philly 11.5
Pittsburgh 12
San Diego 8.5
San Fran. 11
Seattle 6
St Louis 3
Tampa Bay 3
Tenn. 6.5
Wash. 5

[VincentValour]

With the stock chart I'll be looking for futures at opportune times.

Buffalo Bills play after week 10: Will be off @Texans and @Patriots, stock should be low. Like many others I like Buffalo to get to the playoffs. A prop bet a this point to make the playoffs should be a good +price, and may look at a super long shot Superbowl future to earn on as well.

Cincinnati Bengals fade after week 6: Will look for a not to make the playoffs or win the division prop. The tough part of their schedule hits at week 7.

Seattle Seahawks play after week 8: Seattle's schedule is split into two, first 8 games tough, last 8 pretty easy. Will look for a win division prop at this point, as I don't really believe in the 49ers this year.

Dallas Cowboys play after week 10: Same as the Bills off two tough road games @Falcons and @Eagles. Will look to play many + price futures this week.

Houston Texans play after week 14: Texans come off 4 of 5 tough road games, stock should be shot, and will look to play Superbowl bet and other + prices at this point.

New Orleans Saints play after week 14: Similar to the other teams come off two tough road games could be value for futures.

San Diego Chargers play after week 6: Also the tough part of the schedule, will look for futures at this point.

The last four play on teams have similar situations, they have quarterbacks and teams that I think could make deep runs into the playoffs. I'm trying to catch them at their lowest to get great futures odds. Much like Packers in 2010 and Giants in 2011, I think if a team gets hot, there could be some interesting developments in the playoffs.

A couple other notes: I don't believe the Patriots stock will ever get lower, the schedule is much too easy for a disciplined team like the Pats. The best time for their futures is before the season.

I will also be looking to play the loser of the USC vs Oregon season game for the National Championship. After that week. (Barring both are undefeated coming into the game.) Odds are these two teams meet again the Pac 12 Championship, with a good shot that the winner goes to the National Championship. So the first season game is somewhat meaningless, and should generate value for the loser.

[VincentValour]

Power rankings Strength of schedule


Team Total Opponents’ power

1 Giants 1422
2 Ravens 1420
2 Browns 1420
4 Cowboys 1418.5
5 Redskins 1418
6 Panthers 1417
7 Broncos 1414.5
7 Eagles 1414.5
7 Saints 1414.5
10 Bucs 1413.5
11 Bengals 1411.5
12 Falcons 1411
13 Cardinals 1410.5
14 Chargers 1406
14 Raiders 1406
16 Steelers 1405.5
16 Seahawks 1405.5
16 Jags 1405.5
19 49ers 1404.5
19 Titans 1404.5
21 Rams 1404
21 Vikings 1404
23 Lions 1403.5
24 Chiefs 1402.5
24 Jets 1402.5
26 Colts 1400.5
27 Bears 1398.5
27 Packers 1398.5
29 Bills 1395.5
29 Dolphins 1395.5
31 Texans 1393.5
32 Pats 1390

[VincentValour]

Quarterback Strength of schedule rating

The top qbs bring a consistent effort every week, the opponent’s game plan is mainly against them. The other quarterbacks in the league are inconsistent game to game or downright bad. The only quarterback we had reservations with was Stafford, while he might not be as good as the others, we believe his potential is very high going forward. Each quarterback is given a value based on skill and consistency, while the numbers are a bit ambiguous, we still feel this is a another good metric to identify strength of schedule.

Quarterback SOS ratings
Rodgers -GB 1.0
Brees -NO 1.0
Brady -NE 1.0
P Manning -DEN .75
E Manning -NYG .75
Romo -DAL .75
Schaub -HOU .75
Rothlisberger -PIT .75
Rivers -SD .75
Stafford -DET .75
Ryan -ATL .50
The rest .00

#1 DENVER
QBR 6.50 PIT, ATL, HOU, NE, SD, NO, SD,

#2 BALTIMORE
QBR 6.25 NE, DAL, HOU, PIT, SD, PIT, DEN, NYG

#3 CAROLINA
QBR 6.0 NO, NYG, ATL, DAL ,DEN, ATL, SD, NO

#3 PHILADELPHIA
QBR 6.0 NYG, PIT, DET, ATL, NO, DAL, DAL, NYG

#3 TAMPA BAY
QBR 6.0 NYG, DAL, NO, SD, ATL, DEN, NO, ATL

#6 ATLANTA
QBR 5.75 DEN, SD, DAL, NO, NO, NYG, DET

#7 KANSAS CITY
QBR 5.25 ATL, NO, SD, SD, PIT, DEN, DEN

#7 OAKLAND
QBR 5.25 SD, PIT, DEN, ATL, NO, DEN, SD

#7 WASHINGTON
QBR 5.25 NO, ATL, NYG, PIT, DAL, NYG, DAL

#10 CHICAGO
QBR 5.0 GB, DAL, DET, HOU, GB, DET

#10 NEW ORLEANS
QBR 5.0 GB, SD, DEN, ATL, ATL, NYG, DAL

#10 TENNESSEE
QBR 5.0 NE, SD, DET, HOU, PIT, HOU, GB

#13 NEW YORK GIANTS
QBR 4.75 DAL, DAL, PIT, GB, NO, ATL

#14 CINCINNATI
QBR 4.5 PIT, DEN NYG, SD, DAL, PIT

#14 CLEVELAND
QBR 4.5 NYG, SD, DAL, PIT, DEN PIT

#14 SAN FRANCISCO
QBR 4.5 GB, DET, NYG, NO, NE

#17 INDIANAPOLIS
QBR 4.25 GB, NE, DET, HOU, HOU

#17 JACKSONVILLE
QBR 4.25 HOU, GB, DET, HOU, NE

#17 MINNESOTA
QBR 4.25 DET, DET, GB, HOU, GB

#17 NEW YORK JETS
QBR 4.25 PIT, HOU, NE, NE, SD

#21 GREEN BAY
QBR 4.0 NO, HOU, DET, NYG, DET

#22 DALLAS
QBR 3.75 NYG, NYG, ATL, PIT, NO

#22 SAN DIEGO
QBR 3.75 ATL, NO, DEN, DEN, PIT

#24 HOUSTON
QBR 3.50 DEN, GB, DET, NE

#24 SEATTLE
QBR 3.50 DAL, GB, NE, DET

#26 ARIZONA
QBR 3.25 NE, GB, ATL, DET

#26 DETROIT
QBR 3.25 GB, HOU, GB, ATL

#28 PITTSBURGH
QBR 3.0 DEN, NYG, SD, DAL

#29 BUFFALO
QBR 2.75 NE, HOU, NE

#29 MIAMI
QBR 2.75 HOU, NE, NE

#29 ST. LOUIS
QBR 2.75 DET, GB, NE

#32 NEW ENGLAND
QBR 1.50 DEN, HOU

[VincentValour]

Strength of schedule home road dichotomy.

This strength of schedule metric is based on where each team plays their games week to week. Teams power ranking will appear the same overall, when in truth it is much tougher to play certain teams on the road rather than at home. The following teams are much better at home than the road. We also believe there will be a great advantage when a bad road team plays really good home team, the first set of teams includes this.
Note: only included the Saints due to their overwhelming advantage at home the last few years. They are still pretty good on the road.

Home/Road Dichotomy last 5 years.
Falcons SU- Home 29-11 Road- 18-22
Chargers SU- Home 29-11 Road 20-20
Bears SU- Home 25-15 Road- 15-25
Seahawks SU- Home 22-18 Road 11-29
Cardinals SU- Home 26-14 Road 14-26
Ravens SU- Home 31-9 Road 20-20
Saints SU- Home 28-12 Road 24-16
Jaguars SU- Home 22-18 Road 14-26

ARIZONA
WEEK 1 VS SEATTLE +
WEEK 11 @ ATLANTA -
WEEK 14 @ SEATTLE -
WEEK 16 VS CHICAGO +

ATLANTA
WEEK 3 @ SAN DIEGO -
WEEK 10 @ NEW ORLEANS -
WEEK 11 VS ARIZONA +

BALTIMORE
WEEK 12 @ SAN DIEGO -

CHICAGO
WEEK 5 @ JAX -
WEEK 13 VS SEATTLE +
WEEK 16 @ ARIZONA -

JACKSONVILLE
WEEK 5 VS CHIGAGO +

NEW ORLEANS
WEEK 5 VS SAN DIEGO +
WEEK 10 VS ATLANTA +
WEEK 13 @ ATLANTA -

SAN DIEGO
WEEK 3 VS ATLANTA +
WEEK 5 @ NEW ORLEANS -
WEEK 12 VS BALTIMORE +

SEATTLE
WEEK 1 @ ARIZONA -
WEEK 13 @ CHICAGO -
WEEK 14 VS ARIZONA +

ALL TEAMS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE VS. THESE TEAMS.

Arizona
H/R 0 vs SEA. at SEA, at ATL vs Chi

Atlanta
H/R 0 at SD at NO, vs AZ, vs NO

Baltimore
H/R -1 AT SD

BUFFALO
H/R +1 AT AZ, VS JAX, VS SEA

CAROLINA
H/R -1 VS NO, AT ATL, VS SEA, AT CHI, VS ATL, AT SD, AT NO,

CHICAGO
H/R -1 AT JAX, VS SEA, AT AZ

CINCINNATI
H/R -2 AT BAL, AT JAX, AT SD, VS BAL

CLEVELAND
H/R +1 AT BAL, VS SD, VS BAL

DALLAS
H/R -1 AT SEA, VS CHI, AT BAL, AT ATL, VS NO

DENVER
H/R -1 AT ATL, AT SD, VS NO VS SD, AT BAL

DETROIT
H/R 0 AT CHI, VS SEA, AT JAX, AT AZ, VS ATL, VS CHI

GREEN BAY
H/R +2 VS CHI, AT SEA, VS NO, VS JAX, VS AZ, AT CHI

HOUSTON
H/R 0 AT JAX, VS, BAL, AT CHI, VS JAX

INDY
H/R -1 AT CHI, VS JAX, AT JAX

JACKSONVILLE
H/R +1 VS CHI

KANSAS CITY
H/R +1 VS ATL, AT NO, VS BALT

MIAMI
H/R +1 AT AZ, VS, SEA, VS JAX

MINNESOTA
H/R +1 VS JAX, VS AZ, AT SEA, VS CHI, AT CHI

NEW ENGLAND
H/R -2 VS AZ, AT BAL, AT SEA, AT JAX

NEW ORLEANS
H/R +1 VS SD, VS ATL, AT ATL

NEW YORK GIANTS
H/R -1 VS NO, AT ATL, AT BAL

NEW YORK JETS
H/R 0 AT SEA, VS AZ, AT JAX, VS SD

OAKLAND
H/R 0 AT ATL, VS JAX, AT BAL, VS NO

PHILADELPHIA
H/R 0 VS BAL, AT AZ, VS ATL, AT NO

PITTSBURGH
H/R +1 VS SD, VS BAL, AT BAL

SAN DIEGO
H/R +1 VS ATL, AT NO, VS BAL

SEATTLE
H/R -1 AT CHI, VS AZ, AT AZ

SAN FRAN.
H/R 0 VS, CHI, AT NO, VS AZ, AT AZ, VS SEA, AT SEA

ST. LOUIS
H/R -1 AT CHI VS AZ, AT AZ, VS SEA, AT SEA

TAMPA BAY
H/R -1 VS SD, VS NO, AT NO, AT ATL, VS ATL

TENNESSEE
H/R 0 AT SD, VS CHI, VS JAX, AT JAX

WASHINGTON
H/R +1 AT NO, VS ATL, VS BAL

[adutton6]

Very good stuff!

May I ask what factors were considered in the schedule analysis? I would love to see if this could at all translate to CFB with some factors adjusted.

Very cool nonetheless!

[VincentValour]

(08-03-2012 07:56 AM)adutton6 Wrote:  Very good stuff!

May I ask what factors were considered in the schedule analysis? I would love to see if this could at all translate to CFB with some factors adjusted.

Very cool nonetheless!

Which schedule analysis do you mean specifically?

I'm guessing the chart. We looked for teams and games that would be underrated or overrated at specific points of the season. Many times that will happen due to scheduling, the team will be similar in power rating but be overrated or underrated just due to record.

I'm sure it could translate to college, especially the SEC with all those tough teams. Hopefully that answered your question.

[adutton6]

Thanks VV. I should have read through the above post more closely (not sure why I skipped to the bottom). This does help, I will play around in the coming weeks for SEC sharing what I find.

[illadelphia]

The Eagles are experimenting with a different way to handle how plays are relayed to their defense, especially when an opponent switches into the hurry-up offense.

Basically, the Eagles defense is handling its pre-snap business as if the offense is always in two-minute drill mode. In between plays, the players stand close to where they will position themselves at the snap. Matthews and Chaney said they aren't sure if the defense will conduct itself this way for the entire game, but they have yet to huddle up so far this camp.

“They want everyone to line up faster instead of having the [middle linebacker] look over, get the call, break the huddle, and get the front lined up," said Matthews, who is currently backing up the newly-acquired DeMeco Ryans in the middle. "They just everything to be faster because last year it seemed like sometimes the call would get in late because teams would disguise personnel till the last second.”

“As a defense, Juan said, you don’t want the offense dictating the pace," Chaney said. "If they want to go hurry-up, we got an adjustment for it. We can just turn to the sideline and get a signal and be ready to play like that.”

“It’s good because everybody needs to know the signals anyway because you never know what can happen with the headset," Chaney said.

[JSpauny]

Good stuff illadelphia.

Wondering if that will make the defense more effective as a whole. I'd guess so, but never quite heard of anything like this before so I don't really have a baseline to compare to. Anyone else have any example of this being effective?

By the way, I'm close to all-in on the Eagles this year. Think last year was the absolute floor for that team.

[ChiefZilla]

Amazing stuff. Keep up the good work.

Only one very minor question/criticism. I wouldn't have Schaub rated so high with the other QBs. If anything, I'd switch him and Matt Ryan.

[illadelphia]

(08-03-2012 11:36 AM)JSpauny Wrote:  Good stuff illadelphia.

Wondering if that will make the defense more effective as a whole. I'd guess so, but never quite heard of anything like this before so I don't really have a baseline to compare to. Anyone else have any example of this being effective?

By the way, I'm close to all-in on the Eagles this year. Think last year was the absolute floor for that team.

It is hard for me to be "all-in" on a team coached by Andy Reid. His unwillingness to run the ball at crucial times is something that prevents his team from having consistent success. Also his in-game coaching style is borderline atrocious. The inability to manage a clock/time outs and make adjustments on the fly really hinder his teams. Everyone sees what he can do with the added time in a bye week but what people don't see is the flip side of that -- what he struggles to do at halftime, which leads to what we saw last year with all the blown 2nd half leads.

As for the defense, I like the idea of being ready faster. To me, it means that everyone is on the same page which is huge. I don't expect a DE to understand what a CB does in man-press coverage but it certainly helps to know that you need to have good containment because the CB will not be there to clean up the edges. So without much to compare it to, I like it from the standpoint of having a cohesive unit working together as opposed to the piecemeal crap I watched for 16 weeks last year.

[VincentValour]

(08-03-2012 11:36 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Amazing stuff. Keep up the good work.

Only one very minor question/criticism. I wouldn't have Schaub rated so high with the other QBs. If anything, I'd switch him and Matt Ryan.

Thanks appreciate it.

We thought about that for sure, but ended up really liking the consistency of Schaub. The espn QBR numbers, while not the end all be all, I think they do a good job has Schaub 5th, 4th, 12th, 6th, going from 2008 to 2011. Ryan's QBR numbers are really good as well, 2nd, 13th, 3rd, and 5th. Actually thought of switching Ryan and Stafford as well, but ultimately like the potential of Stafford more going forward. Also considered just moving Ryan up, but the nice thing about the simple ratings is switching them out to fit opinions is very easy. It's the premise where the usefulness can be gained.