NFL first-year coach performance

[Beyond the Bets]

Post from the main page. Also, if you're curious, here is a breakdown of every first-year coach (and their performance) since 2002.

Will probably write some sort of commentary on this over the weekend on this, but what's your general view on NFL coaching? Does it matter?

Do these numbers change your thoughts at all?

* * *

2002
Car - John Fox (5.5) - 7 - Over
Hou - Dom Capers (4.5) - 4 - Under
Indy - Tony Dungy (9) - 10 - Over
Oak - Bill Callahan (9.5) - 11 - Over
SD - Marty Schottenheimer (7) - 8 - Over
TBay - Jon Gruden (9.5) - 12 - Over
Wash - Steve Spurrier (8.5) - 7 - Under

2003
Cincy - Marvin Lewis (5.5) - 8 - Over
Dal - Bill Parcells (7.5) - 10 - Over
Det - Steve Mariucci (6) - 5 - Under
Jax - Jack Del Rio (6.5) - 5 - Under
SF - Dennis Erickson (9.5) - 7 - Under

2004
Atl - Jim Mora Jr. (9) - 11 - Over
NYG - Tom Coughlin (6.5) - 6 - Under
Chi - Lovie Smith (7) - 5 - Under
Buf - Mike Mularkey (7.5) - 9 - Over
Ari - Dennis Green (5.5) - 6 - Over
Wash - Joe Gibbs (9) - 6 - Under
Oak - Norv Turner (7.5) - 5 - Under

2005
Cle - Romeo Crennel (4.5) - 6 - Over
Mia - Nick Saban (5.5) - 9 - Over
SF - Mike Nolan (4.5) - 4 - Under

2006
Buf - Dick Jauron (6.5) - 7 - Over
Det - Rod Marinelli (6.5) - 3 - Under
GrBay - Mike McCarthy (6.5) - 8 - Over
Hou - Gary Kubiak (5.5) - 6 - Over
KC - Herman Edwards (9.5) - 9 - Under
Min - Brad Childress (8) - 6 - Under
NO - Sean Payton (6.5) - 10 - Over
NYJ - Eric Mangini (6) - 10 - Over
Oak - Art Shell (6.5) - 2 - Under
StL - Scott Linehan (7) - 8 - Over

2007
Atl - Bobby Petrino (7.5) - 4 - Under
Ari - Ken Whisenhunt (7) - 8 - Over
Dal - Wade Phillips (9) - 13 - Over
Mia - Cam Cameron (7) - 1 - Under
Oak - Lane Kiffin (5) - 4 - Under
Pit - Mike Tomlin (9) - 10 - Over
SD - Norv Turner (10.5) - 11 - Over

2008
Atl - Mike Smith (4.5) - 11 - Over
Bal - John Harbaugh (6) - 11 - Over
Mia - Tony Sparano (5.5) - 11 - Over
Was - Jim Zorn (7.5) - 8 - Over

2009
Cle - Eric Mangini (7) - 5 - Under
Den - Josh McDaniels (7.5) - 8 - Over
Det - Jim Schwartz (5) - 2 - Under
KC - Todd Haley (6) - 4 - Under
Ind - Jim Caldwell (10) - 14 - Over
NYJ - Rex Ryan (7) - 9 - Over
Oak - Tom Cable (5.5) - 5 - Under
StL - Steve Spagnuolo (5.5) - 1 - Under
SF - Mike Singletary (7) - 8 - Over
Sea - Jim L. Mora (7.5) - 5 - Under
TBay - Raheem Morris (6.5) - 3 - Under

2010
Buf - Chan Gailey (6) - 4 - Under
Was - Mike Shanahan (7.5) - 6 - Under
Sea - Pete Carroll (7.5) - 7 - Under

2011
Dal - Jason Garrett (9) - 8 - Under
Min - Leslie Frazier (7) - 3 - Under
Den - John Fox (5.5) - 8 - Over
SF - Jim Harbaugh (7.5) - 13 - Over
Car - Ron Rivera (4.5) - 6 - Over
Cle - Pat Shurmur (6.5) - 4 - Under
Oak - Hue Jackson (7) - 8 - Over
Ten - Mike Munchak (7) - 9 - Over

2012
Jax - Mike Mularkey (5.5)
KC - Romeo Crennel (8)
Mia - Joe Philbin (7.5)
StL - Jeff Fisher (6)
TBay - Greg Schiano (6)
Oak - Dennis Allen (7)
Indy - Chuck Pagano (5.5)
NO - Joe Vitt/Aaron Kromer (10)

[Wiseguy]

I believe Football Outsiders did a piece on first year coaches a couple years back. The part I took away that was really interesting was the second year performance of teams, first year coaches took to playoffs. I recall serious regression. Teams that fits that mold to the tee....SF,Den my two unders this season.

[SkyBlues42]

How many of these coaches took over a team that really wasn't in awful shape? Sort of like the Raiders hiring Allen after Jackson's 8-win season. Harbaugh with the Ravens?

[Wiseguy]

Sky, you referring to my post or op?

[Wiseguy]

By quick count out of 16 teams that first year coaches took to the playoffs only 3 met or exceeded prior wins. Only 5 made playoffs the next year.

[ChiefZilla]

(07-27-2012 11:22 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  How many of these coaches took over a team that really wasn't in awful shape? Sort of like the Raiders hiring Allen after Jackson's 8-win season. Harbaugh with the Ravens?

I'm biased, but I think the Raiders are in pretty bad shape. That team will stink this year, particularly if Palmer and/or McFadden can't stay healthy.

[GreyMatterStats]

Interesting topic and an eye opening list of coaches, and coaching/management/hiring failures.

Some quick observations and hopefully I did my my math right here:

Out of 66 hires over the 10 year period the only retreads have been Mangini, Mora, Crennel, Fisher, and Turner - would have thought that number would be higher.

In the 10 year period OAK 6 hires, MIA/SF 4 hires, ATL/BUF/CLE/DAL/DET/KC/STL/WAS 3 hires - These 11 teams accounted for 53% of all hires.

For the 2009 hires only 2 of the 11 are still with their team, amazingly high percentage after two seasons.

[SkyBlues42]

(07-27-2012 12:24 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(07-27-2012 11:22 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  How many of these coaches took over a team that really wasn't in awful shape? Sort of like the Raiders hiring Allen after Jackson's 8-win season. Harbaugh with the Ravens?

I'm biased, but I think the Raiders are in pretty bad shape. That team will stink this year, particularly if Palmer and/or McFadden can't stay healthy.

I agree. But I feel like they were left with the tools be stay competitive, unlike some teams that go 1-15 and make no moves in the offseason.

[ChiefZilla]

(07-27-2012 02:09 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  I agree. But I feel like they were left with the tools be stay competitive, unlike some teams that go 1-15 and make no moves in the offseason.

Very true. The O/U of 7 indicates expectations aren't THAT low, compared to most other new coaches. Haven't looked at the schedule, but 7 seems fairly high.