NFL draft thread w/ pre-pick LEAKS!?

[Delocated]

Atty, that would be an incredibly interesting scenario. I think it will happen as well.

As of today I'd guess Minny takes Claiborne. At 4, the Browns would be really happy because it would increase the odds of a team wanting to deal with them for Kalil (Buffalo).

If they can't find anyone, it'd be an interesting decision between Kalil and Richardson. We have a GLARING need at RT and Kalil could fill that hole for 3-5 years and then swap positions with Joe Thomas as he gets up there in age.

Tampa has to be pulling their hair out unless they plan on taking a WR.

[Delocated]

Agreed on the prop disappointment. Sportsbook isn't putting anything more out and Bovada seemed to copy them.

We'll have a chance to hit them hard with a live bet longshot or two, though. I have a feeling this will be a wild draft.

BTW, is there a live chat function we could all join Thursdy night?

[attyg3]

BetOnline released their props, a lot more variety. Make sure to check them out. I will post once I finish with my bets.

[Delocated]

Ingram over Coples is nice at BetOnline but there is a lot of juice with that (-180).

Would also play Brockers (+105) over Barron if I had it at my book.

[ChiefZilla]

Minnesota would be crazy not to take Kalil, right? I can't be the only one who values an LT stud over a DB.

In my mind, here are the first two steps to turning a franchise around:

1. Find a quarterback (presumably Ponder)
2. Protect your quarterback

[jimmysingh9]

I think whomever gets Mohammed Sanu will get a potential stud WR. loved his game but he had some garbage QB's throwing to him. hoping the Bills or Eagles get a shot at him in the 2nd round

[Beyond the Bets]

Alabama players selected in first 25 picks
137 Over 4½ Alabama players +100
138 Under 4½ Alabama players -140

Harrison Smith to be drafted in 1st round
135 Yes -160
136 No +120

Mike Adams to be drafted in 1st round
133 Yes -115
134 No -125

Minnesota Vikings to make 3rd pick in draft
107 Yes -285
108 No +225

RB's selected in 1st Round
103 Over 1½ RB's +190
104 Under 1½ RB's -240

Who wil be drafted 1st
117 Melvin Ingram -180
118 Quinton Coples +140

Who will be 4th pick
129 Trent Richardson -210
130 Ryan Tannehill +155
131 Justin Blackmon +425
132 Morris Claiborne +605

Who will be 6th pick
125 Fletcher Cox +260
126 Justin Blackmon -140
127 Morris Claiborne +255
128 Trent Richardson +315

Who will be drafted 1st
109 Fletcher Cox -220
110 Michael Floyd +170

Who will be drafted 1st
111 Luke Kuechly +100
112 Riley Reiff -140

Who will be drafted 1st
113 David DeCastro -107
114 Dontari Poe -133

Who will be drafted 1st
115 Mark Barron -145
116 Michael Brockers +105

Who will be drafted 1st
119 Courtney Upshaw -170
120 Michael Brockers +130

Who will be the 8th pick
121 Ryan Tannehill -200
122 Michael Floyd +160
123 Riley Reiff +455
124 Melvin Ingram +855

WR's selected in 1st Round
105 Over 3½ WR's -350
106 Under 3½ WR's +265

QB's selected in 1st Round
101 Over 3½ QB's +190
102 Under 3½ QB's -240

[attyg3]

I took Kuechly over Reiff at +120, DeCastro over Poe at -107, Ingram over Coples -180, Mike Adams not a 1st rounder +100, Brockers over Barron at +135.

They did a good job, no locks here. The Gilmore prop is still by far the best prop listed

[attyg3]

Delocated,

Good news, sportsbook is releasing more props on Wednesday.

[VincentValour]

Really like Ingram over Coples. Ingram really clean prospect, Coples not so much.

(04-23-2012 10:47 AM)Delocated Wrote:  We'll have a chance to hit them hard with a live bet longshot or two, though. I have a feeling this will be a wild draft.

BTW, is there a live chat function we could all join Thursdy night?

Agree this draft should be crazy, could be the most trades ever. I'm in for live posting, Thurs, Fri, and Sat. I take more days off work for the draft than Christmas, ....I have problems.

[Delocated]

Chief, I think you're right, but it may be a case of Kalil not grading out as well as other players. Honestly I wouldn't be able to form an opinion on him as I am worthless when it comes to evaluating offensive linemen.

I would agree with all of your plays, atty, but as you mentioned they come with some risk.

Thanks for the info on sportsbook. I'm a pretty loyal customer as they have really treated me well the past few years in the customer service department. I only use them and one other book, and the other one is a really square website. I will say that if they don't catch up to releasing some of the college football lines in the fall they'll lose some business from me...

[Delocated]

Vincent, I'm with you. Unfortunately (or fortunately) I just started a new job and can't take the time off.

Damn accruing PTO to hell.

[JSpauny]

So I wouldn't rule out the Rams trading back up and drafting Trent Richardson. There is a pretty widespread rumor right now that the Rams are trying to move Jackson. I'll assume it won't be for much (2nd rounder at the most, probably more in the 3rd round range), but it depends on how badly a team wants him. Either way they absolutely have the ammo to swap with the Vikings with multiple 2nd round picks this year plus whatever they would get for Jackson if they decide to trade him.

Not saying this is going to happen, but an interesting rumor and a move that would make sense in terms of the rebuilding project, as Jackson figures to be in decline mode in 2-3 years which is when the Rams should be competing again.

Could shake up the first bit of the draft a little bit if it happens.

[attyg3]

I took Brockers over Upshaw too, seems like he's moving up again after dropping a bit.

[Delocated]

Made a play on Tannehill and "no" to the Dolphins. Fairly small, but the +160 is packed with value. I'd rate it as a coin flip if I'm being completely honest.

[ChiefZilla]

Where did you find that bet, Delocated? All I have at BOL is one where Tannehill is a -210 favorite for the 8th pick, but then you'd have to choose between three other players instead of just having a "field" option.

[Delocated]

Spauny, let's talk about that rumor a little bit as it has a chance to change quite a few things.

1. It would make the Rams turning down the Browns offer for RG3 even more ridiculous.

2. Even after tradin Jackson I'd still believe they might be moving up for Blackmon.

3. If they take Richardson, I have to believe my Browns would trade down for someone who wants Kalil.

[Delocated]

Chief: it's at sportsbook.com. It lists the Dolphins only, so you'd still be in danger if they passed at 8 and he free-fell..

[JSpauny]

(04-24-2012 03:32 PM)Delocated Wrote:  Spauny, let's talk about that rumor a little bit as it has a chance to change quite a few things.

1. It would make the Rams turning down the Browns offer for RG3 even more ridiculous.

2. Even after tradin Jackson I'd still believe they might be moving up for Blackmon.

3. If they take Richardson, I have to believe my Browns would trade down for someone who wants Kalil.

1) I don't believe the Browns one bit when they say they offered as much. I think that was Holmgren saving face, because if they did offer as much what benefit did the Rams have to move down further? I was at a season ticket holders draft preview hosted by the Rams and an audience member straight asked Snead (Rams GM) if Holmgren was being honest. Snead without directly saying no, said something along the lines that the Rams accepted the best offer that was on the table. Can't read into it too much, but I can't honestly believe the Rams would choose to move down further if the offers were the same.

2) If the Rams do trade Jackson the pick is Richardson. Here's why, other RBs on the roster: Quinn Porter and Chase Reynolds (guessing most people have never heard of either of those two). Career carries for the 2: 0. People always want to talk about how bad the WRs are, and they are incredibly bad, but behind Jackson there is no one. Literally, no one. There could not be less of a person behind Jackson right now. If Jackson is traded, the pick has to be Richardson. There is not another RB talent like him in this draft or maybe even the next one.

3) I do agree here. If the Rams trade back up to 4, have to imagine Kalil is sitting at 6 for the Browns who they could potentially auction off to anyone who wants him.

[Delocated]

What happened was the Rams requested everyone's best offer. WAS offered #6, #40, a 1 in 2013, a 1 in 2014. The Browns offered #4, #22, and a 1 in 2013. When told the Skins offer was better, the Browns tried to add in their second this year, #37. The Rams said "too late."

Beyond the obvious reason why that is dumb, the initial Browns offer was better than the 'Skins' anyway. #22 this year is worth a hell of a lot more than #40 and a first in 2014.

I would choose to help out a friend even if it meant not getting top dollar on something, so I understand it. Trading back up to #3 or #4 just confirms the Rams GM was full of crap.

This bitter fan is done talking about it.