NFL draft thread w/ pre-pick LEAKS!?

[Delocated]

What is interesting about the Rams rumors is the timing. I don't think it's a coincidence the Browns let it be known how much they love Richardson right before the trade rumors started sprouting.

I honestly think the Browns have a huge trade down offer for Kalil if he is there at 4. If he's not, we'll take Richardson.

I think it's our way of trying to make a win-win scenario out of Thursday after already blowing the draft back in March (losing on RG3).

Just my take...

[Delocated]

Something else to watch out for are the rumors of teams trying to trade to #5 to grab Cox.

Could THAT be the guy St. Louis is trying to guarantee themselves?

That would be something, wouldn't it?

[attyg3]

If the Rams move up, they will certainly take Richardson. I don't care if they trade SJax or not. I think Blackmon will be the pick at 6, if TRich is gone and JB is available.

With all these rumors that the Vikings are going to take Claiborne, this puts Tampa Bay in a tough spot. This is assuming that TRich goes to Cleveland at 4. They don't need an OT, or WR and Gilmore and Kuechly would be reaches at 5. So, you would have to think that Tampa would be a possibility to move up to 3 and take Claiborne or Richardson. But, the Vikings know this, so is this all a smoke screen so they can get an extra pick and still get Kalil, Claiborne, or Blackmon at 5?

Love this time of year, and weeding out all the BS that teams are spewing is one of the toughest parts.

[attyg3]

Delocated, U think the Browns take Blackmon or Kalil if TB moved up to 3 and took Richardson?

[Delocated]

(04-24-2012 05:48 PM)attyg3 Wrote:  Delocated, U think the Browns take Blackmon or Kalil if TB moved up to 3 and took Richardson?

I honestly have no idea what they will do. My educated guess:

1. Try to trade down to Dallas/Buffalo who are targeting Claiborne/Kalil.
2. Take Blackmon and reach on Weeden at 22.

From what I understand we have Weeden rated just as high as Tannehill and are one of the teams that rate Gilmore just as much as Claiborne.

If Richardson if off the board (who guessed someone would trade up for a running back a month ago?), all bets are off. A live bet longshot might be a good play in this case.

[Delocated]

Would Tampa take Kalil if Claiborne and Richardson went 3-4?

I can't remember a draft with so many variables.

[attyg3]

(04-24-2012 07:06 PM)Delocated Wrote:  Would Tampa take Kalil if Claiborne and Richardson went 3-4?

I can't remember a draft with so many variables.

I don't think so, I really think that would be a prime spot for Buffalo at 10 to move up and take Kalil. If they can't make a deal, I could see them taking Gilmore at 5, but who knows. Excited to see the new props tomorrow, hopefully they add a decent amount.

[VincentValour]

It's a giant rush to trade back, will be interesting if someone like the hoodie actually goes against the grain and trades up. In general this draft is a mess, too bad my Raiders don't pick til next century ughh.

[attyg3]

Couldn't disagree with Fortenbaugh anymore in the latest article posted on covers. He said to wait until Wednesday to make your draft bets and let the smoke clear from all the lies teams have been spreading.

There are many bets posted earlier in this thread that are no longer available, because they got pounded. There are a few that were plus money and are now -300 or more. Gilmore and Kuechly bets are prime examples.

I agree when it comes to betting who goes at a certain pick, but not head to head, or over unders on draft position. It seems a lot of leaks tend to come out the night before on which way teams are leaning. This can be very profitable for you, as many of the books are slow to react.

His prime example is Dareus to Buffalo last year which was 8-1 the night before the draft. I too was able to capitalize on that number. Mayock was the first guy to have Miller and Dareus switching spots in his only mock, which is always the night before the draft. So, I thought it was worth a shot. He usually has a few shockers, so make note, he could make you some money. Remember the NFL signs his checks, so he is privy to a lot of information.

Value is value, so if you waited until Wednesday you would have missed out on almost half the draft props that were originally listed, or paid a lot more juice.

My rant is now over

[VincentValour]

Bovada released more props, some might have already been listed.

Which team will make the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft

Minnesota Vikings
-400

Any Other Team
+250


Who will be the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft

Matt Kalil (OL USC)
-250

Morris Claiborne (DB LSU)
+120

Justin Blackmon (WR Oklahoma State)
+500

Riley Reiff (OL Iowa)
+1200


Who will make the 4th overall pick

Cleveland Browns
-400

Any Other Team
+250

Who will be the 4th overall pick in the NFL Draft

Trent Richardson (RB Alabama)
-300

Ryan Tannehill (QB Texas A&M)
+250

Justin Blackmon (WR Oklahoma State)
+425

Morris Claiborne (DB LSU)
+600

Who will make the 5th overall pick in the NFL Draft

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-350

Any Other Team
+225

Who will be the 5th overall pick in the NFL Draft

Matt Kalil (OL USC)
+275

Morris Claiborne (DB LSU)
-200

Stephon Gilmore (DB South Carolina)
+525

Trent Richardson (RB Alabama)
+250

Who will make the 6th overall pick in the NFL Draft


St. Louis Rams
-250

Any Other Team
+170


Who will be the 6th overall pick in the NFL Draft

Fletcher Cox (DT Mississippi State)
+275

Justin Blackmon (WR Oklahoma State)
-140

Morris Claiborne (DB LSU)
+235

Trent Richardson (RB Alabama)
+300

Who will make the 7th overall pick in the NFL Draft


Jacksonville Jaguars
-150

Any Other Team
+110

Who will be the 7th overall pick the NFL Draft


Melvin Ingram (DE South Carolina)
+115

Justin Blackmon (WR Oklahoma State)
+150

Michael Floyd (WR Notre Dame)
+250

Quinton Coples (DE North Carolina)
+300

Who will make the 8th overall pick in the NFL Draft


Miami Dolphins
-200

Any Other Team
+150

Who will be the 8th overall pick in the NFL Draft


Ryan Tannehill (QB Texas A&M)
-200

Michael Floyd (WR Notre Dame)
+150

Riley Reiff (OL Iowa)
+450

Melvin Ingram (DE South Carolina)
+850


Who will make the 9th overall pick in the NFL Draft


Carolina Panthers
-150

Any Other Team
+110


Who will be the 9th overall pick in the NFL Draft

Fletcher Cox (DT Missisiippi State)
+110

Luke Kuechly (LB Boston College)
+150

Michael Floyd (WR Notre Dame)
+350

Stephon Gilmore (DB South Carolina)
+235

Who will make the 10th overall pick in the NFL Draft


Buffalo Bills
-300

Any Other Team
+200

Who will be the 10th overall pick in the NFL Draft


Luke Kuechly (LB Boston College)
+335

Mark Barron (DB Alabama)
+380

Michael Floyd (WR Notre Dame)
+160

Riley Reiff (OL Iowa)
-140


Which side of the ball will the 11th pick overall in the draft play

Offense
+200

Defense
-300

Which side of the ball will the 12th pick overall in the draft play


Offense
+225

Defense
-350

Which side of the ball will the 13th pick overall in the draft play


Offense
-350

Defense
+225

Which side of the ball will the 14th pick overall in the draft play


Offense
+170

Defense
-250

Which side of the ball will the 15th pick overall in the draft play


Offense
+200

Defense
-300

Who will be drafted 1st


Morris Claiborne (DB LSU)
-400

Justin Blackmon (WR Oklahoma State)
+250

Who will be drafted 1st


Riley Reiff (OL Iowa)
-350

Dontari Poe (DL Memphis)
+225

Who will be drafted 1st


Courtney Upshaw (DE Alabama)
-300

Nick Perry (DE USC)
+200


Ryan Tannehill (QB Texas A&M)

Over/Under
8
(-155)o
(+125)u


Kendall Wright (WR Baylor)


Over/Under
23½
(-140)o
(EVEN)u


Brandon Weeden (QB Oklahoma State)


Over/Under
36½
(-150)o
(+110)u

[ChiefZilla]

Sooo ... if I haven't placed a bet by now, be on the lookout for Mayock's mock draft tonight and then try to bet before the sportsbooks react? Is that what I'm gathering?

[attyg3]

(04-25-2012 10:24 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Sooo ... if I haven't placed a bet by now, be on the lookout for Mayock's mock draft tonight and then try to bet before the sportsbooks react? Is that what I'm gathering?

If he has any top 10 surprises, they are worth a shot. Still have to lean on the information that you believe, but if a Dareus situation arises again(8-1) I will be making a play.

Saw that a few Buffalo beat writers are saying Barron has a realistic chance to go #10, found that interesting.

Also, Albert Breer said he talked to a scout that thinks Minnesota is still locked in on Kalil and has been blowing smoke regarding Claiborne. Said it makes no sense for a Cover 2 team to take a CB that high. We shall see

[Delocated]

If he or someone else in "in the know" are adamant about something, and you get really good odds, place the bet. I had a damn soccer game last year so I missed that one.

I remember Tyson Jackson a few years ago coming out of nowhere to go #3. IDK what the odds were, but people paying attention probably won a lot of money.

I'd totally believe the Barron to Buffalo rumors.

Another one to keep an eye on is Claiborne (or Gilmore -_-) to #4. I guess a lot of the teams the Browns are talking to are interesting in trading up for a CB and NOT Kalil if Richardson goes at 3.

Fletcher Cox @ 5 should offer some nice odds as well.

The next 24 hours will be really important. I just wish sportsbook would list more props instea of pulling the ones they have...

[attyg3]

Mayock went with Blackmon to Cleveland, can get some good value on him at 4.

[attyg3]

+425 at BOL

[attyg3]

Sportsbook released a bunch more, check them out

[attyg3]

Took Barron under 14(-105) ** Love this play, push is worst case
Blackmon under 6.5 (-200) a lot of juice, but easy $
Brockers over Upshaw -180 might of already listed this previously

[attyg3]

Kuechly under 10.5 (-120) too

[Delocated]

Bravo getting that Barron moneyline. They took the under off the board as I was trying to bet it at -180.

I hit Cox under 9.5 with a big bet at -180 and it moved the spread.

I'm a bit nervous now with my Floyd bet...

At -160 on the under the Kuechly prop lost value.

[attyg3]

Also love over 3.5(-180) B10 players drafted:

Good chance at RD 1
Reiff
Mercilus
Konz
Zeitler
Worthy
**Forgot Adams in my original post too

Have outside shot at going in rd 1, but doubtful
Still
David