NFL Double Digit Dogs

[JayPrimetown]

Beyond the Bets,

If you are interested, I'd like to do a research piece on double digit NFL dogs. How they have done against the spread... perhaps even by month if there is variance.

I'd look back at the last 5 years... any thoughts on a good resource that would provide spread lines / score of games for the past 5 years?

[RyanParrill]

Now that I'm trying to recall it, I'll butcher it.

Teams that are +15 or more are 15-5 ATS in the last 20.

I couldn't find it so maybe I made that up. It does look like double digit dogs are 13-9-1 ATS this year with KC pending.

[Beyond the Bets]

Jay, this might be of interest: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-1Ly

[JayPrimetown]

(11-21-2011 09:53 PM)RyanParrill Wrote:  Now that I'm trying to recall it, I'll butcher it.

Teams that are +15 or more are 15-5 ATS in the last 20.

I couldn't find it so maybe I made that up. It does look like double digit dogs are 13-9-1 ATS this year with KC pending.

I remember last year double digit dogs did well to start the season. Don't know how well they finished the season though.

[VincentValour]

I did a bunch of research on the NFL in the offseason. Not counting this year I recorded each teams last 20 games as -8.5/more favorites, some teams 20 games go back just a few years i.e Patriots, some go back to the 80's i.e. browns.

In the last 20 games of each team as a favorite of -8.5/more are ATS 201-247. 44.9%
Only 12/32 teams had a winning record in this dynamic.
Coaching seems to be the difference in will a good team get up for a bad team. Here are the list of coaches who presided over the majority of games when the 12 teams that did well in this dynamic. Pretty good list.
Baltimore 12-8 Brian Billick
Carolina 5-2 John Fox
Cleveland 2-0 too small sample
Green Bay 11-9 Mike Mccarthy
Kansas City 5-3 Dick Vermeil
NY Jets 5-3 Rex Ryan
Oakland 7-4 Jon Gruden
Philadelphia 12-8 Andy Reid
San Diego 11-9 Norv Turner????
Seattle 10-4 Mike Holmgren
Tennessee 10-6 Jeff Fisher

That's it every other team had a losing record ATS in this dynamic the last 20 games of -8.5

[Beyond the Bets]

Good stuff.

Also ...

(11-21-2011 10:12 PM)VincentValour Wrote:  Kansas City 5-3 Dick Vermeil

[JayPrimetown]

(11-21-2011 10:02 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Jay, this might be of interest: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-1Ly

Looks like you beat me to it. Three straight years over 50%... thought that was the case.

[oddsok]

I didn't trust KC to hang around for 4 quarters, had a strong lean on them first half handicap, but didn't pull the trigger.

Though the pats might start a little slow and they did.